Tuesday, August 14, 2012

2012 NFL Regular Season & Post Season Preview

So, I gave my division by division analysis, and it's time to make my predictions for what will happen.
            In the NFC, I see more or less the same scenarios, and the same elite teams in place. The Packers and the Saints will likely be the two top teams, and this time, I think that will translate to the playoffs, as well. The 49ers are good, but I don't see them going 13-3 again, and if they do not have that playoff bye and home field in the divisional round, as they did last season, they will likely not advance to the Championship again. The Giants should be good again, but the pressure of being defending champions, not to mention an especially brutal schedule down the stretch, will prevent them from being among the top seeds. I see the Eagles emerging in the NFC East, but not getting past either of the big two, the Pack or the Saints. The Falcons will be good, but will not necessarily win a playoff game, and questions will continue there. The Detroit Lions have a potent offense, yet the pressure of being a winner last season could derail their season in a hurry, if they are not careful. They certainly have the talent to get back to the playoffs, however. But the focus needs to be there. The Chicago Bears could be a playoff team, and a dangerous one at that, if Cutler gets the offense going consistently. But they just seem too inconsistent, and so I hesitate to pick them, although at their best, they could be very good indeed. The flashiest team in the league, those Dallas Cowboys have enough talent to be very good, as well, but also are plagued with inconsistent play. In their case, I think it is more likely that they will remain inconsistent, and this will likely prove costly, as they miss the playoffs again. I think it will be the Saints and the Packers in the Championship Game. The Saints are good, and probably still better than most people think that they are. But if this game is in Green Bay, as I believe it will be, the cold weather, as well as the Saints defense will be a liability. New Orleans still has not won a road game in their playoff history (unless you count Super Bowl XLIV as a road game), and that won't change this year, either. The Packers just have too much for anyone to stop them in the NFC. I think the Packers should emerge in the NFC, although don't discount the Saints, who will have extra determination and incentive, after the embarrassment of what happened this offseason.
            In the AFC the Broncos could be either an elite team, or just a run of the pack team. It hinges on how well the team gels under the tutelage of veteran quarterback Manning. If all goes well, this team could be one of the favorites down the stretch. The Patriots are always an elite team, it seems, and that should not change for the upcoming season, either. The Ravens have an incredible defense, and were so close to putting it all together last season. They may have another opportunity, and that is a team with a real chance. You can never discount the Steelers, but I think Baltimore is better. Cincinnati is decent, but another playoff season is not likely. The Texans should dominate the South, and I like them as one of the favorites in the AFC. Logic and talent on paper would suggest that it would be unwise to bet against the Patriots, but something always seems to prevent the Patriots from winning it all in the past seven seasons. I predict that something this season will be the very team that they managed to beat to qualify for the Super Bowl last season, the Baltimore Ravens, as they exact a measure of revenge.
            Other teams may emerge. The Buffalo Bills will likely overtake the Jets as the number two team in the AFC East, and could very well make the playoffs for the first time in well over a decade. The Eagles should come back from the slump last season, and I see the Cowboys potentially having a stellar season, as well. Either Seattle or Arizona could emerge as playoff teams in the NFC West, for that matter. Chicago, if they remain healthy, should get back to winning, as well.
            As for the other end of the spectrum, I think the Dolphins could be terrible this season. Possibly even the Jets, if their on and off the field issues continue, as they seem to be doing now. Minnesota will continue to struggle, as will the Rams.

            NFC Rough Sketch Projections:
            NFC East:
1.      Philadelphia Eagles             11-5
2.      New York Giants               10-6
3.      Dallas Cowboys                 9-7
4.      Washington Redskins          5-11

NFC North:
1.   Green Bay Packers             13-3    
2.   Chicago Bears                    10-6
3.   Detroit Lions                      10-6
4.   Minnesota Vikings  4-12

NFC South:
1.    New Orleans Saints           12-4
2.    Atlanta Falcons                  10-6
3.    Carolina Panthers              6-10
4.    Tampa Bay Buccaneers    5-11 

NFC West:
1.    San Fransisco 49ers          12-4
2.    Seattle Seahawks              7-9
3.    Arizona Cardinals  6-10
4.    St. Louis Rams                  5-11 

AFC Rough Sketch Projections:

AFC East:
1.   New England Patriots         14-2
2.   Buffalo Bills                        9-7
3.   New York Jets                   7-9
4.   Miami Dolphins                  5-11


AFC North:
1.   Baltimore Ravens                12-4    
2.   Pittsburgh Steelers  11-5
3.   Cincinnati Bengals   9-7
4.   Cleveland Browns              3-13

AFC South:
1.    Houston Texans                 11-5
2.    Tennessee Titans               7-9
3.    Indianapolis Colts  5-11  
4.    Jacksonville Jaguars           1-15 

AFC West:
1.    Denver Broncos                11-5
2.    San Diego Chargers           10-6
3.    Oakland Raiders                9-7
4.    Kansas City Chiefs            6-10


Playoff Predictions: NFC Wildcards: Philadelphia defeats New York, San Fransisco defeats Atlanta;   AFC Wildcards: Houston defeats Pittsburgh, Denver defeats San Diego
NFC Divisional Round: Green Bay defeats Philadelphia, New Orleans defeats San Fransisco,;     AFC Divisional Round: New England defeats Houston, Baltimore defeats Denver

NFC Championship: Green Bay defeats New OrleansAFC Championship:  Baltimore defeats New England

Super Bowl XLVII: The Green Bay Packers defeat the Baltimore Ravens, winning their second title in three seasons and their fifth overall, and emerge as the leading candidate as an emerging dynasty.

PS - I know this is a bit strange, and may even be viewed as a cop out, but as an alternative, one Super Bowl scenario that entices me would be a matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the New England Patriots. If that happens, and both teams are healthy and at full strength, it would be hard to imagine the Patriots losing their third Super Bowl under Belichick and Brady. They are experienced, and loaded with talent, and if they make it all the way back to the Super Bowl, would be very hard to beat. I will predict the Packers to beat the Ravens, but something in that bothers me as well. If the Patriots don't get beat in the AFC round, I see them winning it all this year, no matter who they play in the Super Bowl.

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