Wednesday, January 2, 2013

NFL Playoffs 2012 Wildcard Weekend Preview

So, after a mostly lazy New Year's Day spent relaxing and watching some movies with Basia, life's normal routines begin anew once again this Tuesday, the 2nd of January. The major news story dominating the news today (at least so far) was the passing of the Fiscal Cliff deal, a truly 11th hour compromise that was passed by the Senate and then the House (still, as I understand it, a majority of House Republicans actually voted against the measure, although it passed nevertheless). It prevents tax hikes on all Americans but those who make $450,000 or more, and pushes off deep spending cuts until March.

Kind of sounds like they are doing what they always do, which is to push off dealing with major problems until some later date.

Hopefully, it will prove helpful, but only time will tell. In the meantime, life resumes as normal, only under a new calendar year.

As such, here in North America, this is the time of American football. There are bowl games galore, as we head down towards the 7th, when it all culminates in the BCS Championship Game. This year, it will be between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the winner being crowned National Champions. It is the first time that Notre Dame has been relevant on this level in almost a decade, while Alabama is looking to repeat as champions, as they are no strangers to this elite level. As such, they are favored to beat Notre Dame and win the championship. Notre Dame is the only major college championship contender to complete their season with an undefeated record. But Alabama also faced an undefeated team in last year's championship (LSU at 13-0), and shut them out, 21-0, en route to being crowned champions.

In the NFL, the Monday following the last Sunday of the regular season has come to be known as "Black Monday".  It is known as such, because it is the day that teams fire their head coaches following a season that did not meet expectations. As such, this year, there were a lot of them on the list. Andy Reid, the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles for fourteen seasons, was fired (although many had foreseen this as the Eagles struggled severely all season, so it was hardly a shock). He had coached Philadelphia through much success, with seven division titles in those fourteen seasons, and many other winning seasons and playoff appearances. They even reached the Super Bowl, in the 2004 season, losing to the "Team of the Decade", New England Patriots. Lovie Smith, who led the Chicago Bears to the Super Bowl in 2006, was also fired, prompting star Hester to mull retirement. Another head coach that led his team to the Super Bowl got the axe as well, as the Arizona Cardinals, who started off the season 4-0, only to lose all but one of the rest of the games on their schedule, decided to go in another direction and get rid of Ken Whisenhunt. The Chiefs fired Crennel, the Chargers got rid of Norv Turner (becoming the third NFL team to fire the man), The Buffalo Bills fired Chan Gailey, while the Cleveland Browns fired Pat Shurmur.

There were coaches who managed to survive with their jobs intact, despite bad seasons. The Cowboys kept Garrett, and the Detroit Lions held on to Jim Schwartz, who had gotten some recognition for turning the fortunes of the long suffering Lions around in 2011. But Detroit never really took flight this season, never even got off the ground, as they sunk to a last place finish and a 4-12 season. Mike Munchak will still roam the sidelines for the Tennessee Titans. Finally, in Oakland, Dennis Allen appears to still have a job.

Andy Reid seems to be on the verge of obtaining the job in Arizona, while Mike Holmgren, the former coach of the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks, having coached both teams to the Super Bowl, said that he would be interested in coaching again.

In the meantime, the NFL Wildcard matchups are set, following a wild last couple of weekends. The defending champion Giants are already eliminated from playoff contention, so a new champion will definitely be crowned. There are many potential pieces to this still developing puzzle to see who gets it. But the filtering process begins this weekend, with some intriguing matchups. There will be rematches of playoff meetings from the last ten years or so, between familiar rivals. The Packers and Vikings met in the 2004 Wildcard round, with the Vikings triumphing at Lambeau Field (at the time, only the second team in history to succeed in the playoffs at Lambeau, although the Giants have since done it twice). The Ravens and Colts will meet for the third time in the playoffs since the 2006 season, which culminated with the Colts and Peyton Manning finally getting past the considerable hurdle of the Patriots, en route to their Super Bowl championship. But before all of that, they had to beat the Ravens, in Baltimore. The Colts also defeated the Ravens in their last Super Bowl season, in 2010. Finally, the Bengals and Texans will meet for the second year in a row in the Wildcard, with the exact same seeds that they had last season (the Bengals as the sixth seed, and the Texans as the third seed).

The other Wildcard Game is very intriguing, between two of the hottest teams in the league, and probably the two hottest teams in the NFC. The Seattle Seahawks (11-5) will visit the newly crowned NFC East champions, the Washington Redskins, who won their first division title since 1999. Washington has won their last seven games after a 3-6 start, while Seattle has looked very good, and at times dominant, finishing the season off strong as well. They are riding a five game win streak, and have won seven of their last eight overall in the second half of the season. So, this is a huge showdown, with the winner possibly even having a chance to remain hot and strike down other opponents and possibly make a real Super Bowl run. What a game that one is going to be!



Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

This is an interesting match. More interesting, I think, than last year's game between these same two teams, because the Bengals have a much better shot this time around. Last year, the Bengals were a 9-7 team, brand new to the playoffs, and had not won a single game against winning teams. So, it seemed unlikely that they would keep up with the Texans, despite Houston finishing off last season in a slump. Sure enough, Houston won convincingly. But this year, Cincinnati is a more experienced team, and they have won some big games, as well. They have defeated two playoff teams (the Redskins and the Ravens) and surged towards the end of the season, and seem to be heading up, while the Texans at least appear to be going in the opposite direction. The Bengals recovered from a 3-5 start to win seven of their last eight, including some tough wins. In the meantime Houston got off to an 11-1 start, only to finish with a 12-4 record, losing the seeming lock on the top seed that had appeared to belong to them until the very end. Houston will not even get the playoff bye, having fallen behind both Denver and New England. Still, Houston is a tough team, and that home field advantage is huge, and may even prove to be the deciding factor. This game could go either way, and I will not be surprised with whoever comes out of it to move on to the next round. Cincy has not won a playoff game since the 1990-91 season, and although my heart is with them in this one, my head tells me the Texans will win at home.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

The second game this Saturday will feature a division rivalry, and a rematch of last weekend's huge game at Minnesota. The Vikings beat the Packers in the Dome, but the Packers are the better team overall, and have a huge advantage playing in the "Frozen Tundra" of Lambeau Field. I expect the Pack to take this one with ease.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens

As far as the "upset" possibilities for Wildcard weekend are concerned, I think this is as close to a "lock" as you can get. Like the other AFC Wildcard Game, this is a meeting of two teams heading in opposite directions, as the Ravens, like the Texans, seemed to own the second seed, only to lose four of their last five and lose any chance at a playoff bye in the process, although they did manage to win the division (barely, as it turns out). In the meantime, the Colts recovered from a 2-3 start (which itself did not seem so bad, given that this team finished last year with a horrendous 2-14 record), and wound up winning a very impressive nine of their last eleven games, behind the abilities and leadership of rookie quarterback Andrew Luck. In short, the Colts are hot, and the Ravens are not. Still, you have to consider the playoff experience difference as a factor. Baltimore is the only team to have qualified for the playoffs in each of the last five seasons, and even more impressively, they are the only team to have won at least one playoff game in each of the previous four playoffs. They are looking to make it five straight postseasons with a victory. In the meantime, the Colts fit the description of a team that should just be happy to be here, after last season. But the Colts showed enough to warrant serious belief that they could win this game. I think this game will be tight, and could go either way. Luck will likely be the deciding factor if the Colts win, and there are plenty of reasons to believe the Colts should win, but I think the Ravens recover enough to eke out a win this weekend. Their defense seems to be tightening the last couple of weekends, and home field advantage should prove very helpful against a team that has not played well in the few cold weather, outdoor games that they have played in (a blowout loss at New England, and a 20-13 victory over the league worst team, the Kansas City Chiefs). Baltimore hangs on and advances, I think.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins

This may very well be the Wildcard matchup of two of the strongest teams in the earliest round of the playoffs that we have seen in a long, long time. Both teams are hot, and both teams could remain hot all the way to the Super Bowl, if everything works out as well as it could for them. It's hard to see why either team would lose this game, but somebody has got to lose, of course. If this game were in Seattle, I don't believe the outcome would be in doubt. But since it will be in Washington, it seems more of a toss up. The Redskins have the longest active win streak of anyone in the NFC (and only the Broncos have a longer win streak currently). But the Seahawks are on a tear as well, and this will be the biggest challenge yet for the Redskins, who will seek the unpredictable and athletic RG3 to lead them to victory. But the Seahawks have a tough defense and a dangerous offense, and I actually see them managing to pull it off in what likely should be a tight contest. Seattle is just too good right now, and I think they still have enough in their tank to outlast Washington.



Okay, so there are my predictions for this upcoming Wild Card weekend. There are some intriguing match ups, and I am particularly looking forward to the Bengals-Texans on Saturday, and especially the Seahawks-Redskins on Sunday. In the meantime, here is a link to an interesting piece about teams with long droughts in terms of playoff wins. The Bengals are suffering through the longest current such drought presently, although I personally hope that they remedy that on Saturday.


Most years by NFL teams without winning playoff


http://sports.yahoo.com/news/most-years-nfl-teams-without-214223255--nfl.html

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