Monday, June 30, 2014

Catching Up on the World Cup & Predictions

Okay, so, I actually fell behind a little bit on the goings on at the World Cup during my recent vacation. First of all, there was no working television in the hotel that we stayed at in Charleston, which was highly annoying, frankly.

Also, we were too busy having fun visiting new places and unwinding in other ways to watch much of what was going on with the World Cup.

In the last couple of days, I began to keep up a little bit more, particularly on the radio, since the car rental had satellite, and I was able to tune in to the matches periodically to catch up on what was going on.

I left off, I think, with Day 11, when it was still very much in the round robin of play. But it is not already well into the elimination round, with four of the first eight elimination matches already gone. Brazil barely edged out Chile, and quite frankly, they were lucky to do so, as one shot on goal in the final seconds came very close to burying the host's chances right there. But Brazil survived to the penalty kick stage, and were just barely better than Chile, to move on.

Colombia's relative dominance over Uruguay was a bit surprising, and made me reassess many of the lingering doubts that I still had about that team. They look really, really good!

Then yesterday, the big game between Mexico and the Netherlands. Mexico had been outplaying the Netherlands since taking a 1-0 lead early in the second half.  With a very organized and disciplined manner of playing, plus with star goalie Guillermo Ochoa once again in top form, it looked like Mexico was finally going to break their curse of not advancing past the second round.

But then, things began to fall apart at the seams for Mexico. Wesley Sneijder of the Netherlands finally solved Ochoa, beating him in the 88th minute with an equalizing goal with a shot aimed low, and what had appeared to be a certain Mexican victory was suddenly seemingly destined for extra time.

Or so it seemed, until a few minutes later, during the injury time, when a bad penalty (let's call a spade a spade, because it was a bad penalty) gave Klaas Jan Huntelaar a penalty kick, with a chance to win it outright in regulation for Netherlands. He buried it, and suddenly, Mexico was fighting for their World Cup lives, trying desperately to make something happen, for some miracle to fall into place for them to extend play.

It didn't happen, and so Mexico was sent home, and Netherlands advanced.

Mexico should not have lost, however. At least, they should not have lost it the way that they did, with a highly controversial call against them in the final moments of penalty time. It should have gone to extra time, and who knows what would have happened then? Hell, it might just have ended up in another penalty shootout, and again, those are unpredictable.

Instead, Mexico was sent home early, and unfairly. True, they gave up one goal outright in the final minutes of regulation, in a game that they had essentially been dominating to that point. But they did not really "allow" that second goal, as much as it was rewarded to Netherlands due to bad officiating. And it is tragic that a horrendous call effectively decided what was otherwise a great game!

Finally, there was the game between Costa Rica and Greece. This was a very tight game, with both teams reluctant to take too many offensive chances early, and essentially feeling each other out during the early part.

But that changed in a hurry when a brilliant play by Costa Rica's captain, Bryan Ruiz, was good for a goal, and a 1-0 lead for Costa Rica in the 52nd minute.

However, a second yellow against Costa Rica's Oscar Duarte sent him out of the game, and meant that Costa Rica would have to play shorthanded, with only ten men the rest of the game.

Greece managed to take advantage of their numerical superiority when Sokratis Papastathopoulos kicked a rebound into the net for the equalizer.

And Greece had some chances to go up on Costa Rica, both during regulation and in extra time.

Costa Rica's goalie, Keylor Navas, was the star of this one, coming up with several brilliant saves against great shots that seemed destined to get buried in the back of the net, if not for him. Navas allowed Costa Rica's efforts to just enough to survive into the penalty shootout, because otherwise, Greece surely would have defeated his team.

But in the penalty kicks, Costa Rica's strikers were perfect. And in Greece's fourth attempt, Theofanis Gekas's shot was blocked by Navas, giving Costa Tica a chance to clinch the win with a conversion on their next penalty kick.

Sure enough, Costa Rican defender Michael Umana was good as gold on his penalty kick, and sent Greece home early, having suffered a shocking defeat, while Costa Rica advances to face the Netherlands next.



Predictions for the Next Four Elimination Games

So, there you have it for the four completed games. I would have expected Brazil to win, like everybody else pretty much would have done. But it as shocking just how close to defeat they came. The Colombian win over Uruguay was a mild surprise, as I thought Uruguay was better than that. The Netherlands beating Mexico was going to be a tough game either way, although i would have predicted the Netherlands. It's just unfortunate that such a great game will be forever marred by a lousy call that really helped to decide it. And I actually would have picked Costa Rica, in a tight contest, although it would not have surprised me either, had Greece managed to win.

But it's easy to say what I would have predicted after the fact, right?

How will my predictions for the upcoming games fare?

Well, let me give it a shot. Here they are:

France will defeat Nigeria.

Germany will defeat Algeria.

Argentina will knock out Switzerland.

And, finally, Belgium will fend off the United States, in a game that likely will go to extra time, if not outright penalty kicks.

No major surprises, although I think Argentina and Germany, particularly, may struggle a bit. They both should survive, but one or the other, or both, might find themselves in a bit more of a nail-biter than they would hope for.

Okay, there are my predictions.

The first games come later today. I will revisit my predictions in reviewing the games, and see how well those predictions held out (or didn't).

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