This weekend should be a good one. There are some really intriguing match-ups, with games that could go either way. The only contest that I feel clearly favors one team over the other would be in Minnesota, where a red hot Seahawks team with a ton of playoff experience should, in my opinion, easily get past the Vikings, with or without home field advantage. Seattle is one of three teams in the NFC that I feel has a legitimate shot at qualifying for the Super Bowl, and there are no other NFC teams in action this weekend that I feel that way about. As for the AFC, it seems a lot more wide open to me. The only team that I suspect has no real chance at going too far would be Houston, a team that only managed to defeat one playoff team this season. But otherwise, I could picture the Chiefs, or Steelers, or Bengals getting hot and finding their way to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The AFC looked a lot less consistent, and so every team in the AFC save the Texans seems to me to have a real shot, which makes both of the games on Saturday really interesting.
So, how do I think these match-ups will go this weekend?
Below are my picks for Wildcard Weekend:
Saturday, 4:20pm, ABC/ESPN:
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
at
Houston Texans (9-7)
Here's the breakdown: The Texans have home field advantage, and are a hot team right now. But nobody is hotter than the Chiefs, who won ten straight after a 1-5 start to the season in order to qualify for this playoff contest. On opening day this season, the Chiefs beat the Texans in Houston, 27-20. Obviously, circumstances are very different now. The Texans have a tough defense, although so does Kansas City. That should make this a low scoring contest, and it will be a relatively close contest. But I look at what KC had to do to get to this point, with almost no margin for error. They were skating on thin ice for 10 straight games, and could not afford to lose a single game. Yet, they managed to do it, and are, by now, used to de facto elimination games. I like Kansas City to win a tight, low scoring contest in Houston.
My pick: Kansas City wins a close game
Saturday, 8:15pm, on CBS
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
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Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
Here's the breakdown: Here is a game between two opponents who are quite familiar with one another. They split the season series, with each team winning on the road against the other. That would seem to imply a home field disadvantage for the Bengals, who also are playing this game without their starting quarterback due to injury. If you add to that the fact that the Steelers look like they have the hottest offense in the league right now, you might be tempted to think that Pittsburgh is on their way to a convincing win. Yet, I cannot discount the familiarity that these two teams have with one another, and Cincy's tough defense should be fired up for this game. The Bengals are desperate for a playoff win to legitimize their regular season success, as they have the longest active drought of playoff wins for any team in the league. The last time that they won a playoff game? That would be in January of 1991, when they beat Houston, 41-14. Since then, the Steelers have been to four Super Bowls, and won two of them. Plus, Pittsburgh has to be regarded as one of the hottest teams in the league, and it is somehow easier to picture them winning on the road all the way to the Super Bowl, then to see Cincy winning this, then winning two games on the road to qualify for the Super Bowl. Still, the Bengals have been underestimated all season long, and by now, they appear comfortable in that position, which should help them feel right at home this weekend. It could go either way, but if I have to put money on it, I would say that the Steelers survive this game to fight another day.
My pick: Pittsburgh wins
Sunday, 1:05pm, on NBC
Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
at
Minnesota Vikings (11-5)
Here's the breakdown: Okay, right off the bat, I think that the Seahawks are easily the best team that will be playing in the NFC for Wildcard weekend. It does not even matter that they convincingly beat the Vikings in Minnesota, because this is a different game, and both the Vikings and Seahawks are different teams in different circumstances. One thing has not changed, however, and that is that Seattle is the better team. They have come on fire again at the end of the season, when it counted most, and they come in here with a full head of steam. Minnesota had a solid regular season, but looked shaky in some big games. The Seahawks are finally as healthy as they have been in a long, long while, with Lynch back, Wilson playing lights out, and obviously on the of the best defenses in the league primed to dominate once more. I like Seattle convincingly here.
My pick: Seattle wins convincingly
Sunday, 4:40 pm on FOX
Green Bay Packers (10-6)
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Washington (9-7)
Here's the breakdown: This game could go either way. I mean, I believe that the Packers are the better, more complete team overall. But this is a sport where momentum means a lot, and these two teams are heading in opposite directions, with Green Bay having lost their last two games, and sinking in two short weeks from having an opportunity at a playoff bye, to having to go on the road on Wildcard weekend. In the meantime, Washington is red hot, having ended their regular season by winning four straight games, clinching the division title and a home playoff game in the process. That could give Washington an advantage, although the Packers have far more playoff experience, and that should help them. Again, this one goes either way. Cousins is playing very well, and that makes Washington potentially dangerous on offense, and the Packers defense has been shaky at times this season. That said, they still have Rodgers at quarterback, and that means that they have a chance in any game. I will go out on a limb here, and say that the Pack recover from recent woes to pull off a road victory in the second half of this game.
My pick: Green Bay in a tight one
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