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Usually, the playoff picture grows quite a bit clearer as the season grows later, particularly after Thanksgiving weekend, as the NFL regular season enters it's final full month in December. On some level, that did happen, too. In some cases, NFL teams made clear statements with big wins, seemingly declaring with exclamation points that they will be going to the playoffs, and perhaps winning the division. That certainly felt like the case with the Bills, the Patriots, the Ravens, the Buccaneers, and the Packers. Other teams seem to be on the verge of such a statement, as well, including the Bengals and the 49ers.
In some cases, however the situation grew less certain than ever. That is the case with the AFC West, which is tighter than any race that I can remember this late in the season. Literally, each team in the division has a chance not only at qualifying for the postseason, but of winning the division. The first place team, the Kansas City Chiefs, lead the division by exactly one game against literally every other team in the division, who are each tied for both second and last place. The Cowboys also appeared to cast more doubts with another loss, while Washington is getting hot. The Eagles and even the Giants are each in the playoff race and even the division title race, even though that division seemed all but ended just a few weeks ago, as the Cowboys appeared to be running away with it. The Patriots and Bills are in a tight race in the AFC East, as well, although that particular battle should be decided fairly soon, as the two teams will meet not once, but twice in the coming weeks.
If nothing else, these final weeks before the playoffs begin should be interesting, to say the least. Let's take a look at the Thanksgiving weekend that just passed in the NFL:
Cincinnati 41, Pittsburgh 10 - There is always that sliver of doubt that rises whenever I make a pick like this for one team that has historically been owned by another. The Bengals had already beaten the Steelers, and soundly, in Pittsburgh. But could they complete the season sweep? As it turns out, they did, and in a big way. They completely dominated the Steelers, holding onto the ball for over 35 minutes, producing 370 yards and 25 first downs on offense, and capitalizing on three Pittsburgh turnovers. Cincy was leading 41-3 late in the fourth quarter before the Steelers managed their first and only TD to make the game seem just a tiny bit more respectable on their end. But make no mistake, this really was a thrashing. The Bengals sure appear to be greatly improved, and heading towards the playoffs, as they improve to 7-4 on the season, and have won two straight games. As for the Steelers, they fall to 5-5-1, and have lost two straight games. My pick: Accurate
Atlanta 21, Jacksonville 14 - Atlanta kept their flickering playoff hopes alive with a nice road win against the Jaguars. True, Jax is hardly an NFL powerhouse, but then again, neither are the Falcons. So this was huge for Atlanta, who now find themselves in a two-way tie for second place in the NFC South with the New Orleans Saints, and with a real chance - albeit still slim - to somehow slip into the postseason. Statistically, the game was fairly even. But the Falcons took better advantage of their opportunities, especially early, building a sizable lead, and then holding off the Jaguars as they rallied to try and come back. The Falcons improve to 5-6 on the season, while the Jags fall to 2-9. My pick: Inaccurate
New England 36, Tennessee 13 - This has felt like an unusual, and admittedly rather unpredictable, season in the NFL. Just a few weeks ago, the Titans appeared to be the most steady team in the AFC, continually winning and remaining ahead in the top seed for the AFC playoff race. Then, an upset loss at home to Houston, followed by a drubbing in New England, and the Titans are knocked down a couple of pegs. They still lead the AFC South by a couple of games and a tiebreak, which should be comforting. But they do look a lot more vulnerable than they did only a short while ago. As for the Patriots, they keep on rolling. In an unpredictable season, the Patriots rise and return to the elites feels somehow almost predictable and normal, even though many did not expect them to rise quite this quickly or dramatically. They dominate the Titans to improve to 8-4 and, at least for this week, are in first place in the AFC East with their sixth straight win, although a date with the Bills in Buffalo looms this coming week. As for the Titans, they fall to 8-4, but again, remain in first place in the AFC South, and still sure appear heading to the postseason. My pick: Accurate
NY Giants 13, Philadelphia 7- My Giants managed to win a big NFC East meeting, for the first time in what feels like a very long time. Yes, the defense really stepped it up like they did in the old days, when they wore the uniforms that they wore for this game regularly, and not just as a throwback. The G-Men held onto the ball for over 32 minutes, but were convincingly outgained by the Eagles in yards, and even had fewer first downs. But Philly committed four turnovers, and the Giants committed none, which strongly contributed to this outcome. For the G-Men, this was a huge win that keeps them alive, somehow, for the playoffs despite a 4-7 record. For the Eagles, though, this was a missed opportunity to gain ground on the reeling Cowboys, as they could have pulled to within a game and a half. Instead, they fall to 5-7, and are now in third pace behind Washington, who won a big one this Monday night. My pick: Inaccurate
Tampa Bay 38, Indianapolis 31- The Bucs found a way to win a tough road game, showing why they are the league champions. This has been a time when a lot of teams who enjoyed seemingly strong grip on their division and their own fortunes have slipped quite a bit, including the Cowboys, Bills, Titans, and Raiders. But Brady and the Bucs just keep on rolling, correcting the mistakes that they made and learned from during a two-game skid a few weeks ago. Tampa Bay needed to overcome a 10-point deficit in the second half, and just took over the game. The stats between the two teams were actually fairly even, except that the Colts had five turnovers, while the Bucs limited it to two. Still, the two teams were tied late in the fourth quarter, until the Bucs showed the killer instinct with an 8-play, 75-yard drive that culminated with a 28-yard touchdown run by Leonard Fournette with just 20 seconds left in the game. That was the dagger in the heart that clinched it for Tampa, who improve to 8-3 on the season. Meanwhile, the Colts fall to 6-6, and failed to capitalize on a chance to pull within a game of the suddenly reeling Titans. My pick: Inaccurate
NY Jets 21, Houston 14 - The Jets overcame an 11-point deficit on the road to pull off an impressive comeback win here in a meeting between two of the teams with among the worst records in the league so far this season. Gang Green held onto the ball for well over 33 minutes, gaining 266 yards and 18 first downs on offense, to just 202 yards and 13 first downs for the Texans. Moreover, after the Texans went ahead 14-3 midway through the second quarter, the Gang Green defense stepped up in a big way, shutting out Houston the rest of the way, while the offense got to work and did enough to pull off just their third win for this season. My pick: Accurate
Miami 33, Carolina 10 - Carolina looked ready to meet the challenge of keeping up with the Dolphins through the first quarter. Then, it all came apart for them the rest of the way. The Fins held onto the ball for well over 37 minutes, gaining 315 yards and 22 first downs, to just 198 yards and 10 first downs for the Panthers. Cam Newton might have looked impressive in leading the Panthers to a win in his initial comeback game, but he looked a lot more pedestrian in this one. The Dolphins win their fourth straight game to improve to 5-7 on the year, while the Panthers fall to 5-7, and sole possession of last place in the NFC South, with this result. My pick: Accurate
Denver 28, LA Chargers 13 - If you just looked at just the statistics in this game, you might think that the Chargers won. They had a slightly better time of possession, but outgained Denver, 357 yards to 302. The two teams were more or less even in first downs picked up, but the Chargers had one more turnover than did Denver. Yet, the Broncos were dominating this game, at least on the scoreboard, 28-7, before the Chargers scored late to make it look closer than it did. And the final score hardly suggests a close game anyway. This result helped to throw the AFC West into turmoil, as both of these teams are now 6-5, and tied with the Raiders for second (as well as late) place in the AFC West, while they also all trail the division leading Chiefs by a game. My pick: Inaccurate
San Francisco 34, Minnesota 26- The 49ers are really coming on, and sure seem like one of the hottest teams in the league at the moment. San Fran held onto the ball for over 37 minutes, picking up 423 and 23 first downs, to just 323 yards and 17 first downs for Minnesota. Also, the Vikings had two turnovers, to just one for the Niners. The 49ers just took over the game with a 21-0 run from late in the second quarter and through the third, and Minnesota was just never really in this game again after that. With the win, the 49ers improve to 6-5 on the year, and have a winning record for the first time in over a month. Meanwhile, the Vikings fall to 5-6, and if the season ended today, they would miss the playoffs. My pick: Inaccurate
Green Bay 36, LA Rams 28 - A little over three weeks or so ago, the Rams were 7-1 and flying high, looking like they might race to the top seed in the NFC playoffs. That, however, is starting to feel like a long time ago now, as the Rams drop their third straight game, and gave up more ground to other NFC teams in the playoff race. The Packers held onto the ball for almost 40 minutes, gaining 399 yards and 21 first downs, to 353 yards and 15 first downs for the Rams. Also, the Rams committed three turnovers, to just one for Green Bay. Still, this game remained tight through the first half, until Green Bay took over in the third quarter, putting the game out of reach. The Rams defense really is not looking like one of the elite units in the league, as it did earlier this season. My pick: Inaccurate
SNF: Baltimore 16, Cleveland 10 - The Browns are slipping a bit in recent weeks. It looks like they just have not recovered from a humiliating blowout loss at New England, as they have scored a total of 30 points in their last three games combined. The Ravens held onto the ball for over 37 minutes, picking up 303 yards and 22 first downs, to just 262 yards and 14 first downs for Cleveland. With the win, the Ravens remain the top seed in the AFC playoff race at the moment, with an 8-3 record. Meanwhile, the Browns fall to 6-6, missing an opportunity to tighten the AFC North race significantly and pull within half a game of the Ravens, Instead, they now are in sole possession of last place in their division, and do not look like a team heading to the playoffs at the moment. My pick: Accurate
MNF: Washington 17, Seattle 15 - The Seahawks are watching a season that seemed to begin full of promise now spiral out of control. Washington held onto the ball for an incredible 41:46, or over two-thirds of the game. True, they did not exactly light up the scoreboard or anything, but still picked up 371 yards and 27 first downs, to just 267 yards and a measly 10 first downs for Seattle. Still, despite this seeming dominance, the game came down to the final seconds, as the Seahawks scored a touchdown, but failed on the two-point conversion. Then they recovered an onside kick, only to have it negated by an off-sides penalty. The second attempt at an onside kick failed, and that was the ball game. Washington improves to 5-6 on the season with their third straight win, and would actually be in the playoffs if the season ended tomorrow. They are also within two games of the division leading Dallas Cowboys, which seemed an unthinkable scenario just a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Seahawks suffered their third straight loss to fall to 3-8, and any real chance, however slim, at the playoffs pretty much went out the window with this loss. My pick: Accurate
