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NY Jets 34, Cincinnati 31 – One of a number of picks that I got dead wrong this weekend. After Cincy got what felt like a statement win with an exclamation point last week in Baltimore, it seemed that they should be able to make short work of Gang Green. Indeed, despite some struggles, they really were in position to win this one late in the game. But then the defense let up, allowing the Jets to score a touchdown. And when Cincy got the ball back, Joe Burrow threw a shocking interception deep in their own territory, giving the Jets a golden opportunity to take the lead. They took advantage, and went ahead late. Then, the Gang Green defense finished the job, earning a stunning victory over a surging Bengals team. My pick Inaccurate
Tennessee 34, Indianapolis 31 – Speaking of picks that I got wrong…it felt to me that the Titans were a red hot team, and were about due for a letdown. This seemed like the week where it would happen. The Colts appeared to be getting hot, they had the revenge factor on their side, as well as home field advantage. There was every reason to think that Indy would find a way to win here in this one. And they were playing well, and winning this game, until they weren’t. Derrick Henry really turned it on when he had to, despite numbers that might not have necessarily reflected rushing dominance. However, Henry also apparently sustained a season ending injury, which suddenly presents the Titans with a bunch of questions and concerns at precisely the point when it appeared that they were on top of their fortunes, with a string of very impressive wins. Still, an impressive win nevertheless for them. My pick: Inaccurate
Buffalo 26, Miami 11 – I got this pick right, and the Bills likely covered the spread, as well. However, this was nowhere near as convincing as the final score might suggest. In fact, the outcome was very much in doubt for the vast majority of the contest, which remained close and, in fact, deadlocked in a tie. The Bills did pull it off towards the end, although it felt like they kind of staggered to the end. Not the kind of showing that they would have wanted following a bye week that itself followed a disappointing loss to Tennessee. But a win is a win, and the Bills add to their already decent pile of wins this season. My pick: Accurate
Pittsburgh 15, Cleveland 10 – This season felt like it might be a rejuvenation for the Browns, following that electrifying win in Pittsburgh during the Wild Card last January. Indeed, the Browns looked great early, and the Steelers looked like they were continuing the slump that they suffered through late last season. Now, it is beginning to feel like more of the same of what we have grown used to. The Browns have lost a ton of momentum. Since starting the season at 3-1, Cleveland have now dropped three of their last four, and look like a team that has lost that sense of strong identity and confidence. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh lost three straight and were a surprising 1-3, but have now pulled off three straight wins. They move ahead of the Browns, who are in last place in the AFC North now. My pick: Accurate
Philadelphia 44, Detroit 6 – Obviously, I get some of these predictions wrong. Then, there are other times when I get a prediction really, really wrong. This game was one of those times. It seemed to me that the Lions were about due for their first win of the season. They had a team coming into the Motor City that seemed relatively weak and vulnerable in the Eagles, and so I predicted, perhaps more with my heart than with my head, that Detroit would earn that elusive first win. Then the game started, and the Eagles took control. And kept building on that lead, making this an embarrassing blowout at home for the Lions. There have been times when the Lions felt like a decent team that should have won and just had a bit of bad luck, but this was not one of those times. They were a far weaker opponent who just got beaten down and hammered from beginning to the bitter end. If this had been a prize fight, it would have been stopped early. An ugly lose for the hapless Lions, and a great and important win for the Eagles, who jump ahead of Washington and the Giants for second place in the NFC East. My pick: Stunningly inaccurate
Carolina 19, Atlanta 13 – Still one more game where I clearly made the wrong pick. The Falcons entered this game with some momentum and had home field advantage. Plus, they surely would play with a sense of urgency, because they could not exactly afford to lose this game and still look like they were going to make a serious playoff push. But on this day, it was the Panthers, and not the Falcons, who stepped up and played their best. Carolina’s defense really held Atlanta and Matt Ryan well enough to make him look pedestrian. In the end, the Panthers snap a four-game losing streak to improve to 4-4 on the year. My ick: Inaccurate
San Francisco 33, Chicago 22 – The Bears seemed to be winning early and making the right moves, on their way to a win that might restore some hope for this battered franchise. But the 49ers made some adjustments, and from that point on, it was a different story. San Fran dominated the second half, and put this one away. Despite Chicago dominating the time of possession battle (they hung onto the ball for over 37 minutes, Chicago offense just could not convert opportunities enough, too often settling for field goals. Also, they just had no answers for the Niners once they went on that impressive 24-7 second half run that clinched the win. My pick: Accurate
LA Rams 38, Houston 22 – This game more or less ran as expected, with the Rams jumping all over the Texans and making it look like a huge blowout. Only then, Los Angeles seemed to let up a bit, and the Texans began to mount a somewhat serious comeback. Yes, down 38-0 entering the final quarter, the Texans suddenly found life, and rallied to make it somewhat interesting, getting close enough that it was a two possession game with a little over two and a half minutes left. But it would have taken a miracle for any team to pull that kind of a comeback off, and the Texans just don’t feel either that lucky or, frankly, that good this season. The Rams earn a solid win here, although they would do well to remember to play the full sixty minutes, and not rest after taking a sizable lead going forward. My pick Accurate
New Orleans 36, Tampa Bay 27 – Another one that I got wrong. But who could have imagined that Tom Brady, the GOAT, would not only not come up with the goods for last minute heroics to lead his team to another comeback win, but would throw a pick six that would clinch it for New Orleans. But that is exactly what happened here. It was not obvious that the Saints would necessarily win this game, judging by statistics. While they had an advantage in time of possession, hanging onto the ball for over 33 minutes, the Bucs outgained them, 421 yards to 361. Yet strangely, the Saints produced significantly more first downs than Tampa did, 26 to 16. Perhaps the key, though, were the turnovers. Tampa Bay committed three, including the clinching pick six, while the Saints got through the entirety of this game without any turnovers. The two teams are separated by half a game because New Orleans already had their bye, and the Bucs have not had their bye yet. Otherwise, this is a dead heat, although these two teams will meet again in mid-December. My pick: Inaccurate
New England 27, LA Chargers 24 – This is one pick I can feel proud of. I just had a feeling that the Patriots were starting to emerge as a more serious contender, and that the Chargers looked vulnerable, at least in this particular game. The Pats looked a little more like the team of old that we grew used to them being. They controlled the ball for over 35 minutes and produced 21 first downs, to just 17 for the Chargers. Still, the Chargers outgained the Pats, 369 total yards to 352 for New England. The Chargers, however, had two turnovers, while the Pats just suffered the one. With the win, New England improves to 4-4 and remain in the AFC East race. Los Angeles, meanwhile, drops to 4-3 and are now one game behind the Raiders, and half a game ahead of both the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos. My pick: Accurate
Seattle 31, Jacksonville 7 – This was what most people would have expected in this game, isn’t it? The Seahawks took advantage of playing at home and beat the Jaguars down and out. They outgained Jax, 309 yards to 229. The Jaguars actually held onto the ball for slightly longer, and also enjoyed a small advantage in terms of first downs earned. However, the Jaguars also had one turnover, while the Seahawks gave them no turnovers. Really, Seattle’s defense stepped up in a big way, and the offense, sans Russell Wilson, also played some solid ball to earn the Seahawks a much deserved, and much needed, win to snap their losing streak and inject a little bit of faith back into a season that seemed to be spiraling out of control for a little while there. They improve to 3-5, while Jax drops to 1-6. My pick: Accurate
Denver 17, Washington 10 – More or less what most people would have expected here. The Broncos have won against the competition that they are capable of beating, and that includes weaker teams like Washington. No major fireworks here, no explosions on offense or massive lapses on defense for either team. Just a standard game, with the predictable result here. Denver had the better team and home field advantage, and they won when it was necessary. Not sure if this will help them to make a serious playoff run, but it has to feel good for them to win for the first time in about a month or so. My pick: Accurate
SNF: Dallas 20, Minnesota 16 – The Cowboys scraped by the Vikings in a back and forth game that was close almost from beginning to end. Yet, Dallas enjoyed some decent advantages in key stats, including holding onto the ball for over 32 minutes and picking up 23 first downs, to just 17 for Minnesota. The ‘Boys enjoyed a huge advantage in yards earned, with 419 to just 278 for the Vikings. However, Dallas also committed two turnovers, while Minnesota did not give up the ball even once. Still, the Cowboys stay red hot by surviving for their seventh straight win to improve to 7-1, as they enjoy a very comfortable four game lead over the second place Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East. Meanwhile, the Vikings had worked hard to dig themselves out of an 1-3 hole to start the season, but slide back to a losing record with this clearly disappointing result. My prediction: Accurate
MNF Kansas City 20, NY Giants 17 – Well, the G-Men did not get embarrassed or anything. In fact, they played well and stayed in this one right to the end. Unfortunately, however, they still lost. Yes, they lost, although they played fairly well, and the Chiefs really did not look like they have in recent seasons. Still, KC hung onto the ball for well over 34 minutes and produced 368 yards and 29 first downs, to just 300 yards and 18 first downs for Big Blue. The Chiefs did commit two turnovers, to just one committed by the G-Men. The Giants actually held a late 17-14 lead in the final quarter, but could not prevent two field goals by Kansas City. The first field goal tied it, and the second one won it for the Chiefs. The giants fall to 2-6 on the season, while Kansas City improves to 4-4 to remain alive in the AFC West, even though, again, they have not looked as impressive so far this season as they have in recent seasons, or living up to the high expectations that people had for them this season. My pick: Accurate
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