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It is Thanksgiving weekend. By now, there are teams that are positioning themselves to try and make a serious playoff run.
Then, there are the Jets.
No, I kid, of course. Obviously, the Jets are not the only team that have already been eliminated from postseason play. They just got their quicker than anyone else, and made a point of cementing it more, making sure that absolutely no one will mistake them for a playoff caliber team.
The Jaguars are not going to the playoffs, either. Some other teams? The Bengals, the Chargers, the Falcons, and the Lions. Most likely, in the next few weeks, we will see plenty of other teams joining this list. But the teams mentioned just now are most assuredly not going to the playoffs, even if, by some miracle, they win out the remainder of their games. That is because of how poorly they played, and how frequently they lost, by this point in the season.
Traditionally, Thanksgiving weekend is seen as the time to still be alive and impressive enough to warrant postseason discussion. And while there are a number of teams that, for example, I personally seriously doubt will qualify for the playoffs, if they are still in the running by this point (and most teams still are), then they deserve some credit, and enough respect to take them seriously. Again, many of these teams will soon join the ones listed already. But for now, there is a feeling that they could get hot, at least in theory. If one team in, say, the NFC East, suddenly wins out the remainder of their games, even including the Dallas Cowboys, who just lost that heartbreaking blowout game to Washington, they will win the division and enter the postseason with a head full of steam?
Sounds unlikely? Well, consider this: the 1991 49ers were 4-6, and were well behind in both their division race and playoff race. They won out, finishing 10-6. And even though they still did not qualify for the playoffs, many felt that the rest of the NFC was lucky. Indeed, their return to elite status the next season, when they finished 14-2 and made it to the NFC title game before losing to the young and rising Dallas Cowboys, cemented this elite status.
Or consider another: the 1994 New York Giants. They were 3-7, and had lost seven straight by this point in the season. They faced the Houston Oilers, who had won one game all season and were considered the worst team, and many expected the Giants might lose and overtake them. But they won…barely. And then they kept winning. Like the 49ers had three seasons earlier, the Giants won their final six games, and just missed the playoffs. Yet, they were very relevant right at the end, and almost made it.
These were impressive runs by two teams that did not quite make it, but it shows that bad stretches of seasons, even well past the midway point, do not doom a team. Yes, they can be better than their record indicates, and could get how. It also shows that some teams can get hot late in a season, even after a dismal start. Remember, the 2010 Packers were 8-6, and the playoffs were not guaranteed by any stretch. Same for the New York Giants the following season. But both of those teams won out, not just in the regular season, but through the playoffs and the Super Bowl. So yes, recoveries can happen, and they may be very real. That is why there are some teams with poor records that I just cannot include on the list of teams guaranteed to miss the playoffs, because it is not unfathomable to think that they can recover.
Again, though, we will see more and more teams fall through the cracks, and join the growing list of teams assuredly not qualifying for the postseason. The Detroit Lions just basically joined that club unofficially, as they suffered a humiliating, shutout loss to one 3-7 team last weekend, and then another 3-7 team this week on Thanksgiving. I include them on this list because, as improbable as them winning out seems, even if it did happen, they almost assuredly will still miss the playoffs.
That said, let’s take a look, and I will begin to make my own predictions about which teams are ready to drop from playoff contention:
LA Chargers at Buffalo – Buffalo lost a heartbreaker last weekend, but they lucked out when Miami also lost. That means that the Bills are still leading the division, and closing in on another playoff season. This would be the third time in four seasons that they would have done this, but they want more than that this season. Now, they want to win a playoff game. And it sure would help their cause if they could play at least one postseason game in Buffalo. I mean, who wants to go up to frigid Buffalo, right on Lake Erie and near Lake Ontario and known for historic levels of snow and cold? Yes, the Bills know how important that would be, and they are closing in on wining the division. The Chargers are in their way this week, and even though the weather is not supposed to be all that bad, it is the kind of game that the Bills cannot afford to overlook. Nor will they, as they likely will notch yet another win, and inch their way closer to that division title, which has eluded them for a quarter of a century now. My pick: Buffalo
Cleveland at Jacksonville – Perhaps it is good that the Browns found themselves with a relatively accommodating schedule. There were times when they looked dangerous, even mighty. But when you are in a division with the Steelers and Ravens, as well as an improving and tough Bengals team, you have to be careful not to step on figurative landmines. The Browns stepped on those landmines in blowout losses at Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and also lost at home to the Raiders. But they then beat the Texans and the Eagles, and now have a chance to win a third straight against one of the worst teams in the league when they go down to Jacksonville. The Browns also have games against a suddenly vulnerable Baltimore team, as well as the Giants and the Jets. So, they have a chance to earn some notches in the win column, and finally reach the playoffs again for the first time since 2002, if they play their cards right. But that means getting the job done, and not having a letdown. They should be able to get this one as a win. My pick: Cleveland
Tennessee at Indianapolis – What a game this one should be! For all intents and purposes, the division title could and maybe should be on the line, outright. The Titans and Colts may be tied, but if the Titans find themselves one game behind with a loss, it would be very difficult to make up the lost ground. Why? Because they lost the first meeting at Tennessee. Now, they go on the road to Indy. Realistically, they will very likely need to win this game to have any serious hopes of capturing the division title, barring some kind of unexpected collapse on the part of the Colts. A loss here by the Titans would give Indy a game lead and the tiebreaker advantage, with just five games left to go. Very little time for Tennessee to not just get back to a tie, but outright finding a way to obtain a better record. So this is a crucial meeting. Statistically, the Titans have a decent offense, one of the better units in the league, but a middle of the pack defense. The Colts have a better than average offense, but one of the elite defenses in the league. They are also tough to beat at home, although the Titans have also only suffered one loss on the road. Interesting match-up, this one, and it has huge implications for the playoffs and the division for both teams, obviously. In the end, my expectations will be for the home team to pull this one off. My pick: Indianapolis
Miami at NY Jets – The Jets are winless after ten games. While the Dolphins are not the most experienced team among the current crop of playoff contenders, they still have strengths. Their defense is one of the toughest in the league, and their offense, despite some lapses here and there, looks serious and, at times, even dangerous and explosive. Meanwhile, Gang Green is, well….kind of running on empty. They have the league’s worst offense, and average less than 15 points per game. Their defense is rated next to last in the league, averaging over 30 points per game. Sure, upsets happen, and yes, the Jets will have home field advantage here. But in truth, they really just have not shown any cause for optimism or faith that they can pull off a win here against a Fins team that has shown some serious determination this season, and which should feel angry and a sense of urgency after last week’s loss. My pick: Miami
NY Giants at Cincinnati – Okay, so the Giants are playing in yet another meaningful game. If they win, and if the Eagles lose to the Seahawks – and both are real possibilities – then the G-Men would be in first place in the awful NFC East. That is amazing, and it really could happen! The Giants defense has seriously improved this season, making great strides. Yet, they also have had their problems on offense. But the promising news is that they have played well in their last two games, and should be well-rested and determined in this one. The Bengals have had their own issues on offense, so I expect that Big Blue can more or less contain them in this one. If the Giants can score against a Cincy defense that has had it’s own issues this year, then they really can emerge with a key victory, and gain some serious momentum as the season now approaches the stretch. I suspect that the Giants eke out a win. My pick: NY Giants
Arizona at New England – The Cardinals are in the thick of the playoff race at the moment, but they are a young and up and coming team. Great things may be in store for them in the future, but they have lacked the kind of consistency to make the playoffs feel like a virtual lock. This is a big game for them, a test of sorts. They take on the Patriots, who are diminished from what they once were, but can still be tough. The Pats still have Belichick at the helm, and that will likely be good for a few wins during any given season. New England also is clinging desperately to playoff hopes that are flickering and feel like they are on life support at the moment. They have struggled particularly on offense, while the defense is more or less a middle of the pack unit. Still, that defense shows glimpses of former greatness. Remember, they had the number one ranked defense in the league last season. So, this will be a good game, and a solid test for both teams. The Cardinals can be explosive on offense, and Kyler Murray will keep the Patriots defense honest with his speed and his accuracy. This game could go either way. But in the end, I expect the Cardinals to manage to pull off a big upset, and stay in the thick of the playoff race here. My pick: Arizona
Las Vegas at Atlanta - The Falcons got rid of Coach Quinn, and they seem to be a better team for it. While their defense ranks pretty low, they have shown signs of improvement since Quinn's departure. But that does not mean that they have shown any kind of consistency. Meanwhile, Gruden has his team very much in the playoff race. They likely will not win the AFC West, barring what seems like an unlikely collapse by the Chiefs, but they still have very realistic hopes of reaching the playoffs. Their offense is dangerous, and should give the Falcons defense all that they can handle. True, this is a road game on the East Coast for the Raiders, which comes with challenges. But the Raiders have played well in most of their road games, winning at Carolina and at Cleveland, which suggests that they should be able to pull this one off, as well. My pick: Las Vegas
Carolina at Minnesota – This is actually a tough game to make a prediction for. The Panthers have not been consistent this season, but there again, neither have the Vikings. Minnesota enjoyed a solid, playoff season, advancing to the divisional round last season, but their playoff hopes for this year are, at best, flickering severely at the moment. The Panthers have had their issues, and they really have only won one game since early in the season. The Vikings, meanwhile, have more realistic hopes of a playoff berth, and are playing this one at home. Really, they should find a way to win, as they are most likely the better of these two teams. My pick: Minnesota
Baltimore at Pittsburgh – IF this game takes place – apparently a big “if” given that the Ravens are having issues with Covid-19 – then it depends on who is in their lineup. Another if is whether Lamar Jackson will be the quarterback, because if he is not, with the Ravens already reeling with two straight losses, then it is difficult to see how Baltimore would even keep this game close, let alone win. Not impossible that they still could, of course. And the Ravens do have that tough defense. I think that the Ravens, if they are at full strength, could pull off an upset. However, there are just too many things favoring the Steelers to make a pick against them in good conscience right now. So, I have to go with the home team. My pick: Pittsburgh
San Francisco at LA Rams – The 49ers won the earlier meeting this season between the two teams. But it seems fair to say that for this meeting, they are both different teams, and in very different places, than they were during that earlier meeting. Statistically, the 49ers are not bad, either on offense or on defense. Still, they are suffering through a difficult, injury plagued season, and right now, coming off a bye, they have dropped three straight games. The Rams, meanwhile, are very much in the thick of the division race, and even contending possibly for the top seed in the NFC. Their defense ranks among the true elites in the league, and I noticed that their sideline is very energetic and positive often times, and this positivity seems to help the team win some games. They are enjoying a rebound year following the disappointment last season, and they enter this game as one of the few teams who have yet to lose a home game. To me, it feels like the Rams are the better team, and that they should find a way to win this game. My pick: LA Rams
New Orleans at Denver – The Broncos are a hard team to figure. They seem to look good at times, and can be especially tough when playing at home, perhaps especially because of the uniquely thin air of the Mile High City. But the Saints are one of the best and hottest teams in the league. They are flying high right now, with the best record in the NFC, and the longest active win streak in the conference, as well. Right now, they seem to be figuring things out well. While almost all of the other leading teams in the NFC have been handed losses and dealing with weaknesses, including the Seahawks and the Packers, the Saints overcame their biggest adversity of the season very early, and have gotten things on track since. With veteran quarterback Drew Brees at the helm, the offense is once again flying high. And that should be good enough to soar just a little higher than the Broncos likely will in the Mile High City this weekend. My pick: New Orleans
Kansas City at Tampa Bay – The Chiefs are the defending champions, and have the league’s number one rated offense, to boot. The Buccaneers, by contrast, feel like a team that could come apart at the seams a bit, with recent losses to the Saints and the Rams, both home games for the Bucs. Tom Brady may be the GOAT, but that does not guarantee success with his current team, which is hardly a perennial playoff caliber franchise. Their defense has looked a bit more vulnerable than usual in recent weeks, and KC is not exactly the kind of team that you want to go up against when your defense is struggling. The Chiefs look like one of the true elite teams so far, and they should be able to bully their way past the Bucs in this one. My pick: Kansas City
Sunday Night Football: Chicago at Green Bay – For most of the season, the Packers looked like they very well might be the top seed in the NFC. They still may end up being that, but they have to show more consistency. In the last six games, the Pack are 3-3. The good news for fans, however, is that the rest of their schedule looks mostly accommodating. They should feel good about this game, because Green Bay is always a tough place to play. The Pack have only lost one home game to date all season, and they likely feel confident with Da Bears coming into town. Chicago raced off to an incredible 5-1 start, but whatever momentum they once had has been lost during the team's four game losing streak. Still, they enter this game coming off a bye, with a chance to rest and figure things out. Historically, the Packers have mostly owned the Bears in recent decades, dating back to the days of Favre, and now, this era of Rodgers. While the Bears have a typically tough defense, the familiar theme with their perennially struggling offense remains, and they are really struggling on that end this season again. They have been held to under 20 points five times this year, or in half of the games that they have played. Not surprisingly, they are 1-4 in those games. So, they need to find their offense. The Packers have struggled a bit on defense, but when they have an offense led by Aaron Rodgers, that tends to be more easily overlooked. If the Bears do not manage to put up some points, and also find a way for that very capable defense to hold the Packers offense enough to give themselves a chance, than the Bears will lose their fifth straight. Expect a tough, physical approach by Chicago, but even then, it might not be enough. The Packers know that they should be able to lock this division up with a win here in this one, and that should help lift them. My pick: Green Bay
Monday Night Football: Seattle at Philadelphia - To this point, the Seahawks feel like a rather one-dimensional team. They have an explosive offense led by veteran quarterback Russell Wilson. But their defense has been one of the weaker, leakiest units in the league, almost a vulnerability. That said, the defense has tightened things up a bit in recent weeks, which is a good sign. They face an Eagles team that, frankly, should have grabbed the NFC East by the throat, but failed to do so. Their offense has struggled, and their defense is basically middle of the road. Philly has been one of the most inconsistent teams this season, but they have lost two games in a row. As a result, they now find themselves, quite unexpectedly, trailing Washington right now in the NFC East. So they need this game, this one is a must win. The Seahawks, also, need to win this game, being tied for the moment with the Rams (and possibly they will enter this game behind the Rams, who will take on the 49ers in LA), and just one game ahead of the Cardinals, who will be visiting New England to take on the Patriots. So, this is a big game, with all sorts of playoff and even division hopes at stake for both teams. Big game! I expect an upset in this one, as I think the Eagles will pull off one of their most impressive wins of the season to date. My pick: Philadelphia
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