Tuesday, August 14, 2012

2012 NFL Regular Season & Post Season Preview

So, I gave my division by division analysis, and it's time to make my predictions for what will happen.
            In the NFC, I see more or less the same scenarios, and the same elite teams in place. The Packers and the Saints will likely be the two top teams, and this time, I think that will translate to the playoffs, as well. The 49ers are good, but I don't see them going 13-3 again, and if they do not have that playoff bye and home field in the divisional round, as they did last season, they will likely not advance to the Championship again. The Giants should be good again, but the pressure of being defending champions, not to mention an especially brutal schedule down the stretch, will prevent them from being among the top seeds. I see the Eagles emerging in the NFC East, but not getting past either of the big two, the Pack or the Saints. The Falcons will be good, but will not necessarily win a playoff game, and questions will continue there. The Detroit Lions have a potent offense, yet the pressure of being a winner last season could derail their season in a hurry, if they are not careful. They certainly have the talent to get back to the playoffs, however. But the focus needs to be there. The Chicago Bears could be a playoff team, and a dangerous one at that, if Cutler gets the offense going consistently. But they just seem too inconsistent, and so I hesitate to pick them, although at their best, they could be very good indeed. The flashiest team in the league, those Dallas Cowboys have enough talent to be very good, as well, but also are plagued with inconsistent play. In their case, I think it is more likely that they will remain inconsistent, and this will likely prove costly, as they miss the playoffs again. I think it will be the Saints and the Packers in the Championship Game. The Saints are good, and probably still better than most people think that they are. But if this game is in Green Bay, as I believe it will be, the cold weather, as well as the Saints defense will be a liability. New Orleans still has not won a road game in their playoff history (unless you count Super Bowl XLIV as a road game), and that won't change this year, either. The Packers just have too much for anyone to stop them in the NFC. I think the Packers should emerge in the NFC, although don't discount the Saints, who will have extra determination and incentive, after the embarrassment of what happened this offseason.
            In the AFC the Broncos could be either an elite team, or just a run of the pack team. It hinges on how well the team gels under the tutelage of veteran quarterback Manning. If all goes well, this team could be one of the favorites down the stretch. The Patriots are always an elite team, it seems, and that should not change for the upcoming season, either. The Ravens have an incredible defense, and were so close to putting it all together last season. They may have another opportunity, and that is a team with a real chance. You can never discount the Steelers, but I think Baltimore is better. Cincinnati is decent, but another playoff season is not likely. The Texans should dominate the South, and I like them as one of the favorites in the AFC. Logic and talent on paper would suggest that it would be unwise to bet against the Patriots, but something always seems to prevent the Patriots from winning it all in the past seven seasons. I predict that something this season will be the very team that they managed to beat to qualify for the Super Bowl last season, the Baltimore Ravens, as they exact a measure of revenge.
            Other teams may emerge. The Buffalo Bills will likely overtake the Jets as the number two team in the AFC East, and could very well make the playoffs for the first time in well over a decade. The Eagles should come back from the slump last season, and I see the Cowboys potentially having a stellar season, as well. Either Seattle or Arizona could emerge as playoff teams in the NFC West, for that matter. Chicago, if they remain healthy, should get back to winning, as well.
            As for the other end of the spectrum, I think the Dolphins could be terrible this season. Possibly even the Jets, if their on and off the field issues continue, as they seem to be doing now. Minnesota will continue to struggle, as will the Rams.

            NFC Rough Sketch Projections:
            NFC East:
1.      Philadelphia Eagles             11-5
2.      New York Giants               10-6
3.      Dallas Cowboys                 9-7
4.      Washington Redskins          5-11

NFC North:
1.   Green Bay Packers             13-3    
2.   Chicago Bears                    10-6
3.   Detroit Lions                      10-6
4.   Minnesota Vikings  4-12

NFC South:
1.    New Orleans Saints           12-4
2.    Atlanta Falcons                  10-6
3.    Carolina Panthers              6-10
4.    Tampa Bay Buccaneers    5-11 

NFC West:
1.    San Fransisco 49ers          12-4
2.    Seattle Seahawks              7-9
3.    Arizona Cardinals  6-10
4.    St. Louis Rams                  5-11 

AFC Rough Sketch Projections:

AFC East:
1.   New England Patriots         14-2
2.   Buffalo Bills                        9-7
3.   New York Jets                   7-9
4.   Miami Dolphins                  5-11


AFC North:
1.   Baltimore Ravens                12-4    
2.   Pittsburgh Steelers  11-5
3.   Cincinnati Bengals   9-7
4.   Cleveland Browns              3-13

AFC South:
1.    Houston Texans                 11-5
2.    Tennessee Titans               7-9
3.    Indianapolis Colts  5-11  
4.    Jacksonville Jaguars           1-15 

AFC West:
1.    Denver Broncos                11-5
2.    San Diego Chargers           10-6
3.    Oakland Raiders                9-7
4.    Kansas City Chiefs            6-10


Playoff Predictions: NFC Wildcards: Philadelphia defeats New York, San Fransisco defeats Atlanta;   AFC Wildcards: Houston defeats Pittsburgh, Denver defeats San Diego
NFC Divisional Round: Green Bay defeats Philadelphia, New Orleans defeats San Fransisco,;     AFC Divisional Round: New England defeats Houston, Baltimore defeats Denver

NFC Championship: Green Bay defeats New OrleansAFC Championship:  Baltimore defeats New England

Super Bowl XLVII: The Green Bay Packers defeat the Baltimore Ravens, winning their second title in three seasons and their fifth overall, and emerge as the leading candidate as an emerging dynasty.

PS - I know this is a bit strange, and may even be viewed as a cop out, but as an alternative, one Super Bowl scenario that entices me would be a matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the New England Patriots. If that happens, and both teams are healthy and at full strength, it would be hard to imagine the Patriots losing their third Super Bowl under Belichick and Brady. They are experienced, and loaded with talent, and if they make it all the way back to the Super Bowl, would be very hard to beat. I will predict the Packers to beat the Ravens, but something in that bothers me as well. If the Patriots don't get beat in the AFC round, I see them winning it all this year, no matter who they play in the Super Bowl.

Monday, August 13, 2012

Four Olympians Missing...

No, this does not mean that there was a security breach of some sort or another, after all.

In fact, this story is sad, but not in the captured and held in a secret location awaiting ransom kind of a way.

Evidently, there are four members of the Congo Olympic delegation that have gone missing, but it appears that they chose these games as an opportunity to make some kind of an escape from their war-torn and poverty stricken nation. In a similar story, seven Olympians from Cameroon have not returned home following the end of the games.

So, no, this is not about the tragedy of the results of some failure in security, or any such thing. But it should serve as a reminder of just how fortunate we who are privileged enough to live in relatively stable societies should feel, no matter what the problems we see around us may be. There are billions of people in this world who live in poverty, and have little to no hope of seeing their conditions improve. Perhaps, stories like these serve to remind us of how fortunate we really are, and that if we took half the time on any given day to really think about this and appreciate it, rather than fixating on what we want and do not yet have, then maybe our perspective might change enough to appreciate where we actually are in life.

Here is the link to the story:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/report-4-congo-olympic-delegation-174501422--oly.html

Another Olympics Come To Pass

So, the 2012 London Olympics are done.

The concerns about security, about a possible repeat of the London attacks just a day or so after it was announced that London had been rewarded the games in the first place, seem to have been a bit overblown, as these seemed like peaceful games. No major tragedies, no repeat of Munich or anything. The main thing people are talking about now, after the flame has died away, would be the performance of the athletes.

This was a memorable Olympic Games, nonetheless. It happened when Britain seemed to be enjoying a minor renaissance of sorts. This was a period chock full of events and such in Britain. there was the royal wedding, and the Queen's diamond jubilee celebrations. The British finally saw one of their own men, Andy Murray, competing at the Wimbledon Final, although he lost to Roger Federer. About a month later, in the rematch at the Gold Medal match, Murray would shock a lot of people and exact a measure of sweet revenge, as he dismantled Roger on the grass of the Wimbledon courts, traditionally his strength, en route to a gold medal for Great Britain.

The Olympics themselves seemed to be a success. There were some thing that people were not sure what to think of, such as the rather bizarre looking structure built specifically for the games. There were criticism that the flame could not be seen except when inside of the stadium, which was a first.

Brazil seemed on the verge of winning the gold medal, which very surprisingly, Brazil had never done before in Olympic history! The greatest powerhouse in soccer/football, and the have never actually won the gold medal! Imagine that! Seconds into the gold medal game, they allowed the quickest goal ever to Mexico, and the Mexicans used that momentum to score a monumental upset, clinching their first ever gold and denying the powerhouse Brazilians in the process. On the women's side, the US team managed to win a miracle victory against Canada in the final minute or so of play, following a controversial call. They went on to win the gold against Japan.

Americans were in love with the latest incarnation of the "Dream Team", and indeed, they won the gold. But there were times when they struggled, against Argentina, and then in the Gold Medal game against Spain. Ultimately, however, this was still their sport.

Jamaica's Usain Bolt proved to be unbeatable, as he took gold in the same three competitions that he won gold in four years earlier in Beijing: the 100 m, the 200 m, and the 4 x100 m relay. Thus, he became the first man ever to score gold in all three categories in consecutive Olympics, and that should secure his immortality in racing for a very long time to come.

Phelps had a rocky start in these Olympics, but he managed to establish a new record for most total golds at 18, as well as the most ever medals overall, with 22. He retired from the Olympics as the most decorated modern Olympian ever.

And so, it's over. At least until the 2014 Winter Olympic games. That's when we can expect the medal count race once again, and rather jingoistic fever about who wins the most overall medals, and especially the gold. Not only are the games officially over, but I think the Olympic spirit is over, as well. But unlike the London games, the spirit went missing a long time ago, buried by an avalanche of corporate sponsorship, and a drive to win no matter what the cost. That doesn't just go for the athletes at the games, but for those at home, keeping count of the medals, with chests swollen at just one more affirmation of what many Americans surely believe to be their superiority.

Those are aspects that I do not really miss. But I don't want to be a grump when talking about this all of the time, so I will try to refrain mentioning the more negative aspects of the modern Olympic Games.

Instead, I will mention a picture that I saw today on Facebook, with a caption underneath. It stated this:

Only Governments Want War

I might qualify this by adding corporations that profit from war to the equation, but the point is well taken.

The picture? It showed two athletes from different nations, competitors presumably, with their arms draped around one another in companionship. Maybe the Olympic spirit has not been entirely extinguished after all?

Sunday, August 12, 2012

NFL Preview: The AFC West


AFC West - The Denver Broncos biggest move by far in the offseason – their biggest move in a long, long time, in fact – was to win the Peyton Manning sweepstakes. Now, all sorts of hype surrounds this suddenly reenergized franchise. This is a team that entered last season with relatively low expectations, although they did boast a relative superstar (or is it more fair to call him a big name) in backup quarterback Tim Tebow. But Tebow did not remain a backup for long and, perhaps as a harbinger of things to come, the teams fortunes reversed almost as soon as Tebow took the reins at quarterback. The team kept on winning games that they did not appear to have any business winning. Tebow would play three bad quarters of football, and then would come alive in the fourth, producing one miracle comeback after another, en route to a surprise division title. It did not end there, either. The Broncos hosted the vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers, who had made it to three Super Bowls in the previous six seasons, and Tebow managed to work his magic there, too, throwing a touchdown pas in overtime for only the second Broncos postseason victory since the 1998 championship season. Some people felt that Tebow was wronged by John Elway and the Broncos, who were quick to scrap their quarterback, who had suddenly produced some truly amazing results, in favor of Peyton Manning. But Manning may very well be the greatest quarterback in history, and one does not simply pass up such an opportunity. Manning will get the freedom to run his offense, and that proved enticing. But just as enticing, the Broncos give him a very real chance to reach another Super Bowl, most likely. They boasted a truly elite running attack last season (although Tim Tebow was a part of that, surely), and their defense was fairly strong.  Add an exceptional quarterback that adds a strong passing game to an already effective running game to the equation, and seemingly overnight, the Broncos went from a surprise division championship delivered last season, to seemingly Super Bowl hype going into this season. Perhaps the main obstacle to success will be the hype itself. Just ask last year's Philadelphia Eagles about that. That is a real risk. Also, there are risks with Manning. He is no spring chicken, being in his mid-30's, and having been out of football for a full year. Also, what he had to overcome was a serious injury, and there are questions about just how well he will take it when he starts to really receive the inevitable hits and punishment. Indeed, maybe Elway and the Broncos may come to regret this decision. That said, if this works out, then the rewards could be enormous. Manning is a proven winner, and the Broncos then might have a real chance at reaching the Super Bowl within the next few seasons, provided he remains healthy. If they play their cards right, they even have a chance at it this season. It will likely need to begin with another division title, and I am predicting that Denver will indeed win a second consecutive division championship. How strong their record is during the regular season could help bolster their hopes to go far into the playoffs, and it helps to have an experienced and capable quarterback at the helm, assuming he stays healthy.
            A few years ago, the San Diego Chargers seemed just a notch, maybe two, below the other AFC elites of the time, specifically the Patriots, the Colts, and the Steelers, but seemed to be closing in. They had knocked the Colts out of the playoffs in both 2007 and 2008, and had been competitive against the others. In 2009, they seemed to finally have put al the pieces together, collecting a 13-3 regular season record and the second overall seed in the playoffs. They had a strong offense behind elite quarterback Philip Rivers, and seemed on the verge of finally reaching the Super Bowl, and providing Rivers with that much needed opportunity at a championship ring, which would have been the final hurdle to be considered among the very, very select elite quarterbacks. But the Chargers lost against the Jets in the divisional round, quite unexpectedly, and this team never seemed to recover from that. They got off to a terrible start in 2010, and although they managed to salvage a winning record at 9-7, it was not enough to get them back to the playoffs. Last season would have been the time to redeem themselves and send a strong statement to the division and the rest of the league, and indeed, the Chargers started off 4-1, looking like they were going to be good. Then they lost a tough game to the Jets, and the season completely spiraled out of control after that. The Chargers lost their next six games and, in effect, removed themselves from playoff contention at 4-7. They did recover a bit, finishing the season with a respectable 8-8 record. But the days when this team ranked near the elite teams were seemingly done. Has that window closed on the Chargers, or do they have it in them to get back to that level, and become a contender once again? The answer is not that easy, as this team has become rather unpredictable just lately. Rivers has not been himself the past couple of seasons, but a return to form would certainly help. Make no mistake, he is still a strong quarterback, and there is no risk of him losing the starting job. But he has dipped a bit in recent seasons, and has not been at the elite level of play that he formerly was at. He would need to get back to that level, if this team will be competitive. The defense showed some ups and downs, but there were stretches where they played rather well. If the defense plays a little better more consistently, and Rivers rediscovers his elite quarterback skills, the Chargers could catapult themselves back atop this division, and possibly even be a threat to make some noise in the playoffs, as well. Whether they do so or not is anyone's guess, but this is a tough division, with teams already strong, or on the rise, while the Chargers may appear to be heading in the other direction. Still, this is a talented team, and it is hard to imagine them not being at least in second place here.
            The Oakland Raiders have been on the cusp of being a serious contender for the division title for a couple of seasons now. Two years ago, they swept everyone in the division, although they had a horrid 2-8 record against everyone else in the league, and so a division title was out of reach. Last season, they improved against the rest of the league, but only went 3-3 within the division. They need to find a happy medium between these two tendencies, some more consistency. This is a good offense that could compete in the league, and indeed, the Raiders have been a tough team in the AFC West for a few seasons now. But there always seem to be things that hold this team back. One of those things would be the defense, which was rather weak last season, and had some horrible spells. Out of sixteen games, they managed to keep only three opponents under 20 points, and those were against relatively poor offensive teams (the Chicago Bears were trying to win against the Raiders without Cutler, who had gotten injured right around then). So, the defense absolutely needs to improve if this team realistically hopes to field a contender for the division. Another defensive year like the last one will likely be detrimental for Oakland , and could return them to the depths once again. This team could easily fall to last place this season, and it is hard to imagine them being any good without some significant improvements on the defensive side of the ball. I like the way the Raiders have become competitive recently, and they seem to have potential to repeat that, as well. With Carson Palmer at the helm, it could happen, if he returns to his formerly elite status. They did reinforce the offensive line, but this team had some holes, and I am not sure that they really did enough to warrant any strong measure of faith that they have any realistic hopes at a division title, or a playoff berth. 
            The Kansas City Chiefs had been bad for a long time, when suddenly, they managed to produce a 10-6 record in 2010, enough for a surprising division title. The Chargers, the traditionally dominant team as of late in the AFC West, seemed to have slipped and had a bad season. The Raiders looked great against the division opponents, going a perfect 6-0 as they swept everybody, but it as not enough, as they finished 8-8. The Denver Broncos, meanwhile, had a terrible season. And so it was, the Chiefs were AFC West champs then. That was the high. But reality came crashing down when they lost in the playoffs to the far more experienced Baltimore Ravens. Then, of course, there was last season, where Kansas City seemed to pay for their success of the previous season. So, what happened? The main problem was on offense, where the Chiefs ranked very near the bottom, and produced the second least point total in the league. Only their cross-state rival Rams scored less points. They managed 28 points in two consecutive games, but that was their highest total all season, by far. Injuries played a significant role, including at the pivotal position of quarterback. In 2008, quarterback Matt Cassel stepped in capably for injured Tom Brady, and led the Patriots to an 11-5 record. So impressive was he, that several teams were interested in his services, but the Chiefs got him. They were not very good in 2009, but then they won the division in 2010. Last year, this team bottomed out in the division, yet their record was not all that bad, really. Considering this team started off 0-3, that is saying something. It could have been better, but at least the Chiefs made themselves relevant again, following that horrible start. Many other teams would not have been able to do that much. But one thing this team did have was defense, which has traditionally been a strength for this franchise, as it was last year. When the team got off to that miserable 0-3 start, they scored a total of 27 points in those three games. That was about the point when most people suspected that it would not be a banner year in KC, and that there was not going to be a repeat of a division championship. Yet, they reeled in four wins in a row, and got back into contention within the division. Then, came another atrocious losing streak of four games, during which time, they scored a grand total of 25 points. They were 4-7, and mostly done at that point. That was pretty much because of their offense, which was quite inept. In the entire second half of the season, the most critical point, the Chiefs managed to score a total of 80 points in those final eight games. If the Chiefs hope to be competitive this season, they obviously need more offensive production, and Cassel will need to step it up. Otherwise, this team could find themselves in the bottom of the division yet again. The defense in Kansas City is good, but not good enough to overcome the weaknesses of an offense that proved to be such a liability last season.

Saturday, August 11, 2012

NFL Preview: The NFC West

NFC West - For the first time in a decade or so, the NFC West belongs to the San Fransisco 49ers. Jim Harbaugh came in, and really did a stand up job. The 49ers had not enjoyed much success in recent years, and perhaps the single player who best represented this was quarterback Alex Smith. But all of that changed last season. Harbaugh was the new head coach and implemented a much stricter, more disciplined style of play, and the 49ers thrived. The defense looked like an elite unit within the league, and the offense was efficient and limited mistakes. Combine those two, and the 49ers had a very strong season, finishing the regular season with a 13-3 record and a very comfortable five game margin between them and the second place team in the division. Everything went right. They did not allow a single team to score 30 points on them, until the Saints managed it in the playoffs, and San Fransisco pulled off a miracle win against them. The offense was solid, and at times showed outright explosiveness. Everything just seemed to fall into place for this team, until the NFC Championship Game loss to the Giants. Going into this season, the 49ers look to repeat the success they enjoyed last season, and should be the clear favorite in a weak division. There are question marks, and perhaps the biggest is how Alex Smith will follow up a banner year, especially since it seemed that the team was actively courting Peyton Manning, something that Coach Harbaugh inexplicably denied. Also, the 49ers won't be sneaking up on people this season. But overall, this is a team that looks better than anyone else in the division, and they should repeat as division champs, although they might not be 13-3 at the end of this season. The schedule is much tougher, and it starts right away, with a big test at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers. Still, a first place finish is likely, and probably by some margin, given the traditionally weak level of play the last few years in this division.



The Arizona Cardinals seem hungry to quickly return to elite status, while that window of opportunity is open, as this team still has some talent from the Super Bowl run and the two consecutive division titles in 2008 & 2009. The Cardinals defense was not horrible, but certainly did not rank as an elite unit, either. The offense struggled at times, and just has not been the same since the departure of quarterback Kurt Warner. Back then, this offense was an elite unit, and very dangerous and explosive. That has not been the case so much as of late, and Arizona looked downright pedestrian at points last season. This is a team with some offensive talent, most notably star wide receiver Larry Fitgerald. They got off to a horrible start after winning their opening game, but began to recover as the season progressed. If they get off to a good start this season, they could produce a winning season and even compete for the playoffs, if things fall their way – although I think that might be a stretch with this team. They have a tough schedule, with six games against playoff opponents, and four of those are going to be on the road. It almost seems unfair that a team like this should have such a brutal schedule, but there it is. So, they have their work cut out for them. But the Cardinals could still produce a winning record, and they should at worst be somewhere near .500, if things don't go their way. It's hard to picture them contending for the division title, however, or even making a serious run to the playoffs, although stranger things can happen. As it is, they should be able to finish in second place in a weak division, although Seattle might have something to say about that. It seems likely that the two teams will fight each other for that second place finish.



The Seattle Seahawks changed their uniforms, finally. Much like the Buffalo Bills until last season, they had ugly, ugly uniforms. Buffalo made changes, and reverted to an older style that the franchise used to wear in the early 80’s. The Seahawks are still trying to make their new uniform designs work, and it remains to be seen how it will look overall. The helmets are now darker blue, but the Seahawks have various new designs, going all out in taking advantage of the new uniforms that Nike provided for every team (although the Packers refused, and are going back to the same uniforms they wore last season). So, how will the new look Seahawks actually look on the playing field? Well, hopefully much better than they did for much of last season. Two years ago, they historically managed to become the first team with a losing record to qualify for the playoffs, as they took the division with a 7-9 record. Coach Pete Carroll continues to make adjustments, as his second stint at head coaching in the NFL continues. He has done fairly well so far, with a division title to his name. But this season looks to be difficult, and if Seattle’s fortunes are to improve, than they will have to do it with a fairly difficult schedule. Of course, they play the San Fransisco 49ers twice, but they also have home games against the Packers and the Patriots, and will have to visit the Lions in Detroit. Those are some tough games, but will provide a good opportunity to measure exactly where this team is. The Seahawk defense was actually fairly stellar last season. While they allowed thirty or more points three times, they held half of their opponents to under twenty, and were particularly solid in the second half of the season. After an abysmal season, the Seahawks showed some pride when they won five games in a six game stretch. But one of their problems was the offense, which played poorly far too often. They recovered somewhat in the second half (the whole team did), but they still have considerable problems, including at the quarterback position. No one knows fully what to expect there, and the starting quarterback to open the season may very well be benched by the mid-point of the season. This is a team that is still finding itself, and so, it will likely need more time before Seattle can think about winning with any real consistency. That said, if both the offense and the defense play the way it did in second half, this could very well be the sleeper team that surprises everyone. It should be a good enough team to place second in the division, but probably cannot hope to really win this division. Still, Pete Carroll seems to have this team heading in the right direction, and that might just lead this team to sneak into the playoffs, particularly if the offense finds it’s game.



The St. Louis Rams seemed to have a very bright future ahead of them going into last season, and many predicted that they would follow up the strong promise that a surprisingly good season in 2010 showed with a stellar 2011 campaign. It did not happen, as the Rams crashed and burned. Their offense, behind young quarterback Sam Bradford and with star running back Steven Jackson, seemed to be in good hands. But that offense completely fell apart last year, ranking dead last in the league. St. Louis scored 27 points or more twice last season, and of the other fourteen games, they reached twenty points only once. They scored 13 points or less a shocking twelve times in a sixteen game schedule! Their defense was not much better, either, ranking near the bottom. Perhaps the surprisingly strong showing of the 2010 season masked some deep and fundamental problems that this team has. Still, St. Louis does have some talent on the team, and should show some improvement in the upcoming season. The 49ers are very good, and the Cardinals and Seahawks are trying very hard to become contenders again, so the Rams might have to wait before they get out of the cellar in this division. But almost anything would be better than to repeat what happened last season. Jeff Fisher is an excellent coach, and he should bring a measure of discipline to this team that is sorely needed. They have some really tough games at Detroit and home against the Patriots and the Packers, to say nothing of the games within their own division. So, while they likely will improve from last season in terms of play, and in terms of record, it still might not be enough to avoid another last place finish. Still, if the team can remain healthy and focus on more consistency and minimizing mistakes, the Rams could make a big leap in the won/loss column.



Friday, August 10, 2012

Howard Predictably Goes to the Purple and Gold

Ever since the Lakers were first mentioned as a potential candidate, I had a sinking feeling that Dwight Howard would end up in Los Angeles, wearing those ugly purple and gold uniforms. Sometimes you just know, right?

Alas, there he is. He got what he wanted, by acting like a spoiled brat - the poster child for an entitled athlete with delusions of grandeur. He wanted money, and perhaps he wanted more recognition (aka: fame). Now, he has his opportunity.

And the Lakers now have more opportunities at a championship. Not only did they manage to get two-time league MVP Steve Nash, but now they have Dwight Howard, to boot. The Lakers, who had slipped down a notch or two (but no more) since those distant days of 2009 and 2010, now overnight find themselves not only title contenders again, but likely the favorites to win the championship. Perhaps favorite now to have a huge run at the top as a renewed dynasty, for that matter.

It must be what the NBA wanted. What Dave Stern wanted. They must really like the Lakers in particular, because the Lakers get these breaks all of the time. I mean, really, they seem to consistently get every advantage that other teams simply do not get. So, their success comes at the price of the rest of the league. It comes at the price of a fairer dispensation of talent.

Yes, the big market and ever flashy Los Angeles Lakers, who won five championships in the 1980's and the in first decade of 2000, now look like they will make a run at five more in the upcoming decade.

This was a deal involving four team, and there is a long list of players that the Orlando magic will get in compensation for Howard. But these are not marquee names, and the Magic will likely not be contenders again anytime soon. The Sixers and Nuggets were also involved in the deal, but is seems unlikely that the deal will affect them strongly, one way or the other. Nobody in this deal save for one team acquired an obvious impact player, and that would be the Lakers.

Again, the Lakers. I remember the controversy revolving around the trade to acquire Pau Gasol some years back. That was another time when Los Angeles seemed to acquire some incredible, fortune changing talent for very little. Then there was last year, he Lakers had appeared to get Chris Paul, also pretty much for nothing. But that was put to a stop when perhaps the league went through the formality of not appearing to so obviously favor their favored franchise in sunny Los Angeles.

Now, they made it up to their favorite team, in a big way. Steve Nash and Dwight Howard? Really? Who gets that lucky? Only one team ever seems to get that lucky, and can you guess who that might be?

If you picked a certain franchise with the butt ugliest uniforms in the league, and perhaps in sports, that also happen to represent sunny and relatively wealthy southern California, then you guessed right. Hole in one.

Only the Lakers.

Oh, sure, the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics both picked up a pair of tremendously talented players in recent years, and they both made it to two NBA Finals as a result, each winning a series and losing a series. While the Celtics acquisition of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen changed the teams fortunes, they were not getting players on such a status as Nash and Howard. Hell, even when the heat acquired James and Bosh, they only got one truly game changing player. Bosh is a very good player, don't get me wrong. But he could not single-handedly make an otherwise poor team competitive, like Nash and Howard did. Plus, the Lakers already have Kobe, right? You just have to wonder sometimes how a team gets this lucky.

Obviously, the league is trying to cash in with their star-studded favorite sons. They will win NBA Championships (yes, in the plural). Perhaps, years from now, when they start to get too old, there will be another shocking deal - shocking! - like this that brings yet more incredible talent to the Lakers. Some teams just seem to get incredibly lucky, don't they?

So, the Lakers fans, who are perhaps the most arrogant fans in all of North American sports, will be boasting now for a long time, and telling everyone who will listen without running the other way that the stars just want to play for a winner, want to play for the best.

But since the league so obviously seems to want this to, I personally am losing interest. Sports should have some measure of parity and unpredictability. Sure, there could be dynasties, and there are in every sports. In football, you have the Patriots. But they won three Super Bowls in a four year span, and that last one was seven seasons ago. The great Cowboys dynasty of the nineties also won three Super Bowls in four seasons, and that was it. The 49ers on the 80's? Four Super Bowls in nine years, and they added a fifth in the thirteenth. Not exactly on the same level. In hockey, there has not been a dynasty on the same level as the other sports.

There is one team - but only one - that reminds me of the Lakers, and that would be the Yankees in baseball. They also are a flashy team in a very big market, and always seem to get their man, because the price is always right. No one else can really compete. Yet, even the Yankees have won a total of five World Series titles since the 1980's.

The Los Angeles Lakers? Ten since the 1980's. Ten, and still counting. Not because the same talent that won it in 2009 and 2010 are still playing on that level. They are not. But because they get the deals - they always get the deals - that bring the biggest names (except for LeBron, and who really knows what the future holds?) to this team. In turn, these players deliver the goods,the trophy and the championship rings. That is how it has worked now for some time.

The Lakers of the eighties at least were a team, and as a team, they had their ups and downs (mostly ups), and won five titles. But they were largely the same team, winning over and over again. More recently, however, the Lakers always seem to find the breaks. It happened when Shaq and Kobe both (somehow) wound up in Lakers uniforms. It happened when Kobe got Pau Gasol to help him bring more titles. Now, it will surely happen again with Nash and Howard. I actually liked Nash, and thought he brought a strong measure of class to the game. But this made me lose some respect for him, admittedly.

So, I reminisce about another dynasty that I watched rise and fall: the Chicago Bulls of the 1990's At first I did not like them, but eventually, they won me over. They had some personnel changes, too. Nowhere near the level of these Lakers, of course (I think this is actually unprecedented). But they got some breaks. The thing was, the Bulls had two of the greatest players in the league together, and that was the formula that worked. They got a good supporting cast around them, sure. But it was always Jordan and Pippen, and Jackson as coach, and they got the job done. It was largely the same type of team, without it being an arms race of big name acquisitions. Yes, Chicago struggled early on, kept losing to the Detroit Pistons, who were the champions at the time. But the Bulls got better and better, learned how to win, and when they finally did win, you had to feel good for them. Who knew that they would prove to be so capable of hanging on to the extend that they did? They got greedy and won six titles in an eight year span. Jordan earned it, leading all of those championship teams.

Kobe? Well, he certainly got help, although he did not seem to want to admit it. Shaquille O'Neal, at first. Gasol later on. Now, Nash and Howard. Surely, that's just a coincidence, right? The league never seemed as huge as when they had Jordan in the nineties, and he became more than a household name. Now, they are forcing Kobe on us, but it does not seem quite the same. Some of us are not as into basketball in the post-Jordan era, and yes, I am one of them.

Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed the game. But there is one aspect that is boring: it's almost always a dynasty that wins the title. The Lakers and the Celtics in the eighties, and the Pistons right at the end. The Bulls in the nineties, with Houston winning a couple in a row in between. The Spurs in 1999, and then three more titles (none in succession, though, strangely enough) in the next decade. The Lakers in the early 2000's, and again in the late 2000's.  From 1981 until 2004,when the Pistons broke through (scoring a major upset against the heavy favorites - yup, you guessed it - the Lakers) with one title. Miami won it in 2006, but they managed to win it again in 2012, seemingly on the verge of a potential dynasty. The Celtics managed the one title (again, after scoring a major upset against  -can you guess - the Los Angeles Lakers). Then, the Lakers.

The Mavericks won in 2011, but that was a shocker. There have been a few one year title holders, but not that many (and it should be noted, that each of those teams that won only one title made it to the Finals and lost at another point in time in recent years).

Now, it's the Lakers. Once again, as always, the Lakers.

I don't know about you, but I've just about had enough. I'm not awed by this move, not impressed with the Lakers ability to manage to acquire this talent. It seems that they are not only allowed to get strange deals where they get huge names and talents for virtually nothing, but that they are actively assisted by outside forces. That force, I believe, is the NBA itself, pushing a new Michael Jordan, a new dynasty, a new hot and popular brand. A new wave of profits, of ticket sales, of television contracts, and of merchandise. Nothing new about it, just a new approach, focusing on one team to constantly win and win and win.

Maybe the league hopes it will make the league more entertaining, and a hotter draw. But perhaps they went too far, and this will backfire.

And I, for one, am one step closer to losing all interest. Is it really possible that I am the only one? Is everyone interested in basketball somehow supposed to be entertained by seeing the same team that has won 10 championships (more by far than any other team in any of the other major North American sports leagues) win an 11th, or a 12th, and so on, and so forth.

It seems hard to believe that I am alone in finding this less than entertaining. Basketball games will likely not be on my television nearly as much now in the upcoming season. Not being a fan of either the Heat or the Lakers, and actually finding it a bit offensive, this notion of essentially buying a championship, the only very good team I can pull for would be the Thunder, and although impressed by them, I am certainly not going to be a bandwagon fan for the new hot team of the moment (and maybe, after a couple of seasons now near the top, they may be overshadowed by both the Lakers and the Heat).

So, I, for one, am going to tune out. If the NBA Finals winds up being the Lakers and the Heat, I will make a point of not even watching a single game. That's how tired I am of teams buying championships. It's not much in the way of entertainment anymore. Just a rerun of past events, with slightly different names and faces in the same uniforms.

And nobody buys championships like the Lakers. Too bad no one else can afford to keep up.

Thursday, August 9, 2012

NFL Preview: The AFC South


AFC South – The Houston Texans had their break out year last season. Their defense was tough, and close to being elite. They finally managed to beat the Indianapolis Colts (although with Manning sitting out, almost everybody managed to beat them). On so many levels, last season was a huge success for them. Early on in the offseason, there was speculation that maybe they were in contention for the Peyton Manning sweepstakes, but they did the right thing in sticking with Matt Schaub as their quarterback, thus reassuring him that they have every confidence in his abilities. Now, he has to reaffirm the validity of their faith in him. Houston could use some improvements in their passing game. The Texans also have a very strong running game with Arian Foster running behind an effective and physical line, which should help keep this offense stable, and effective. The defense lost a bit of talent, but they should prove to still be tough. Last year, Houston 's defense ranked among the very elite units in the league, with only the Pittsburgh Steelers, San Fransisco 49ers, and Baltimore Ravens having yielded fewer points. The Texans right now are the best team in a weak division, and by far. The Colts are obviously not what they used to be, the Titans are likely far from being a serious and consistent contender, and that is even more the case with the Jaguars. That should leave Houston as a strong division champion, with a possible run at a playoff bye, and maybe even home field advantage, if they play their cards right. But everyone knows who Houston is, too, and they cannot afford to get too complacent. They essentially eliminated themselves from one of the top two seeds last year in losing to their last three opponents at the end of the regular season, none of which were playoff teams, and only one of which (the division rival Titans) did not end with a double-digit losses in their final record last season. If they can realistically rank among the elites this season, then they simply cannot overlook anything like that again. Every game could be crucial. Experience from last season, including the two playoff games, should help this team to get even stronger, and I see them as a serious Super Bowl contender this season, and what should be an easy march to the division title, to boot.
The Tennessee Titans lost in their attempts to woo Peyton Manning, who used to play for the Tennesses Vols football in his college days. It would have made sense for him to go there, since this also would have brought him home on many levels, and also would kept him in the familiar AFC South, but ultimately, he obviously chose not to, favoring instead the Denver Broncos. So, the Titans remain just another ordinary team, kind of a run of the pack type of team. Nothing really makes them stand out, in either a good or a bad way. They have been decent at times, but not that great at others. They are nowhere near the best in the league, but also nowhere near the bottom of the pack, either. They did finish up the season with a winning record, which was an accomplishment, although it fell short of a playoff berth. Defeating the Texans at Houston in the final game of the season, following an embarrassing blowout home loss to the Texans early in the season, should help bolster confidence for this upcoming season. The defense was a fairly tight unit through much of last season, although they had lapses, particularly during the first half of the season in consecutive games against the Steelers and the Texans. Their offense was not bad, but could use some improvement. The passing game was effective, but the running game needs some work. All in all, the Titans have enough weapons in their arsenal to have another mildly successful season, possibly even enough to produce another winning record. But they likely do not have enough tools at their disposal to launch a serious run at a division title, or perhaps even the playoffs. Still, they should at least place second within the division, but adjustments will need to be made if they hope for better, now or in the future.  
The Jacksonville Jaguars once seemed to be a promising franchise on the rise. But their promise of future success was never entirely realized, and they have since more fully returned back to the pack that they never were able to separate themselves from all that much in the first place. Their offense ranked among the weakest units in the league last season, particularly their passing game. Their running game enjoyed more success, yet overall, this was one of the lowest rated offenses in the league. Combine that with a not so special defense, and you get the kind of long season that the Jaguars suffered through last season. They got off on the wrong foot right off the bat, releasing one time bright quarterback prospect David Garrard just days before the season began. It left an impression of instability, and the results seemed to cement this viewpoint further. The Jaguars were not a historically bad team, but they were largely irrelevant and as close to invisible as a professional team could get. They did not make much news even for being bad, since their division rival Indianapolis Colts were suffering through an immensely unsuccessful season of historical proportions after almost a decade of dominance, so it could even be argued that while the Jaguars not only were in the shadow of better teams in the league, they were even in the shadow of worse teams, or at least one worse team in particular. It is hard to imagine that they will do anything to greatly improve their station this season, either. Depending on how the Colts do, since they are a rebuilding team presently filled with inexperience, Jacksonville may avoid being a last placed team. Yet, Jacksonville did not make as much news as the Colts did in the offseason, and that will likely be to their detriment in the long run. Probably this is a third place team, and a losing one at that. But this is also a team that does not appear to have anything to indicate a bright future, either for this season, or beyond.
While the rival Patriots may have been the team of the last decade officially, the Indianapolis Colts were the winningest team of any decade during that same time period. They managed to earn records of at least 12-4 or better for seven consecutive seasons – a new NFL record. That alone is truly phenomenal. They enjoyed remarkable success with one of the most potent offenses in league history. Nine consecutive playoff appearances, tying a record. They became the first team in league history to begin three consecutive seasons undefeated for as long as they did, as they started off with at least seven consecutive wins in perfect starts (13-0 in 2005, 9-0 in their championship season in 2006, and 7-0 in 2007). Add to that their historical 14-0 start in 2009 (they became only the third team in NFL history to start a season at 14-0), a season that saw them qualify for their second Super Bowl in four seasons, and this team's accomplishments seem to grow and grow. In the second half of the decade, they finally overcame their biggest obstacle: the New England Patriots, which allowed them to qualify for the Super Bowl, finally, and which they would go on to win. Yes, it was a remarkable run of success, overtaking the 49ers of the 1990's (ironically, another winning team that was in the shadow of the "Team of the Decade" Dallas Cowboys, and the parallels between those 49ers and these Colts were actually fairly remarkable, when you think about it). But that success ended abruptly last year, as Peyton Manning, who was known as an iron man up to that point, and seemed on course to at least challenge, if not overtake, Bret Favre's iron man streak of starts, suddenly announced that he would not be the starter when the season opened. Eventually, it became clear that he would not take a single snap. All hell broke loose, as the Colts found life without Manning difficult, to say the least. They brought in veteran quarterback Kerry Collins, but he was ineffective and injured early on, so Painter became the quarterback, but he was no Peyton. Used to undefeated starts, the Colts suddenly found themselves on a massive winless streak to start the season, and seemed to be threatening to become only the second winless team in league history when the streak reached an epic 0-13. They managed to pull off two wins in a row to salvage some respect, but finished off a dismal 2-14. One good thing: they got the first pick in the draft, and used it wisely in acquiring quarterback Andrew Luck, who like Peyton Manning, is supposed to be a once in a generation kind of a quarterback. The Colts had better hope so, as they in effect are building their entire offense, even their entire team, around his abilities. He has looked very good so far in warm ups, but game action will be an entirely different thing altogether. Still, the Colts did what they had to, and seem poised to have a successful future behind Luck. That's a good thing, too, as the absence of Manning last season revealed that this team had some serious flaws that needed to be addressed. Their offense, traditionally a strong point, was abysmal, and the defense was not much better. They made some good moves in the offseason, but it will take some time for the rebuilding process to pay dividends down the line. Right now, Indianapolis will have to pay their dues with another losing season, but the experience that Luck and the Colts go through should prove beneficial for the future, so things could be worse.