The Final Round of the 2012 French Presidential Elections

It’s all said and done now. The election that all of Europe has been watching is now over. Incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy conceded the defeat that most experts had long predicted, and now, France has elected a socialist for the highest office of the land for the first time in nearly a quarter century.

The new president of France, having won with 51,7% of the vote, will be François Hollande, the first socialist President of France since Mitterand, nearly two decades ago, and only the second leftist President in many decades. France has a tradition of voting for right leaning Presidents. So this was a huge change, and will usher in some new ideas and approaches from the very top office in the land.

The election in France coincided with an election at the same time in Greece, and the two elections have been seen, rightly or wrongly, as a sort of referendum on the direction of Europe at a time when numerous member countries have been struggling with incredible debt, and in need of help. Included in these nations were Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, and Greece. The European Community decided to intervene and try to straighter out these problems, mostly under the direction of German and French leadership. German Chancellor Merckel, and French President Sarkozy, had directed austerity measures designed to help these nations out, but it had proven controversial in the assisting countries and indeed around the world, and proven very unpopular for the countries. Greece has been particularly vocal in protesting these austerity measures, and the election there even in some measure overshadowed the elections in France, due to the controversy that the austerity measures provided.

The thing is, the focus on remaining within budget at the expense of all else has irked a number of people, in Greece, as well as outside of it. Both of the major political parties in Grece have been largely discredited, and the result has been political instability and internal turmoil within the country. It is deeply in debt, and in large part, the reason for this has been the incredible amount of spending in arms. These arms were largely provided by….Germany and France, the two countries that now are forcing Greece to turn to austerity measures. So, it is a bit of a vicious cycle.

In the meantime, people are suffering, and there is widespread discontent in Greece, as that country continues to struggle. Because of the severe austerity measures, security in museums was cut considerably, and the result has been an increase in thefts of priceless antiques from Greece’s very rich past. That, to say nothing of the toll it has taken among the people, where joblessness and a loss of many benefits have made many people very angry.

Of course, the discontent has reached beyond Greece, and is also beyond just the austerity measures. We all know that the economic climate has been poor largely worldwide since the economic crisis of 2008, which had an effect the world over. There is widespread skepticism and even unrest the world over, and in Greece in particular, this has at points spilled over into outright violence with protests.

As for France, it, too, has seen a lot of pain. As always, it has been crippled by protests in transportation and other areas, and still the benefits keep diminishing and being threatened.

Like in Greece, it is largely seen as an unofficial referendum on Germany's advocacy of austerity measures, which were strongly supported by Sarkozy's France. . So this xcould and, perhaps, even should impact the debt crisis & shift the debate there, challenge German Chancellor Merkel's strong advocacy for austerity measures, which had been stronger when it was a duo, often derisively referred to as "Merkozy". Hollande takes a very different approach, and  believes in government sponsored programs to help foster growth in the economy, rather than tightening spending and imposing restrictions, at a time when growth is needed. What this means, in practical terms, is that Merkel now stands alone, and is increasingly isolated, even in Germany, where the only election results, in a northern province there, brought bad news to her party. Still, so far, she has remained firm on her advocacy of austerity.

This should have widespread and immediately noticeable differences in their strikingly different approaches in terms of diplomacy, as well. Sakrozy wanted France's presence around the world felt more, and more pronounced, while Hollande wants less presence, and to bring troops home from Afghanistan sooner rather than later. Hollande has already made clear that he does not mean to be a pest when his ideas and approach differs from that of the Americans, particularly the Obama Administration, like Sarkozy's predecessor Jacques Chirac tended to be, or like other Gaullist French Presidents in the past, most notably Charles DeGaulle. We shall see if that remains true should another administration come in, although Hollande is known for being very reserved in general. So, perhaps the approach there will be more subdued, as well.

Much like in the United States, the issue of taxes has been controversial and making headlines in the news, and the French concerns are not all that radically different than those that exist in America. Sarkozy wanted more lenient taxes, which would perhaps make him similar to Republicans here in the United States, but Hollande wants higher taxes on the very rich (75%) and corporations, which makes him more similar to liberals, and even the Occupy movements that have gone global

Also similar to the Uniited States, the issue of immigration has been a huge and heated one. The approach that Sarkozy took was to keep pressing for a harder line, to get tougher on immigration, while Hollande wants to give residency to illegal immigrants on a case-by-case basis.

So, that's it. Nicolas Sarkozy will probably fade into the background in France, after being the flashiest President there that France had seen in a long while, with a celebrity musician as a wife, with scandals left and right, including for cheating on that wife, and for his overall approach. On May 16^th, Hollande will take over, and a new day will dawn for France and for Europe, one way or another, for better or for worse. Time will show which one it will be, or if it will have elements of being better in some respects, and worse in others.

Many of these issues have proved very fiery in the recent past. Greece has violent protests break out in opposition to the austerity measures, and both France and Greece have seen sharp spikes in the popularity of extreme right movements. In France, the Front National, now fronted by Marine Le Pen, who kind of puts a kinder, more sympathetic, feminine face to that of her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, the founder and polarizing figure that was often seen as France's embarrassment. In Greece, there is the rise of "Golden Dawn", a neo-fascist political movement that takes a xenophobic stance and stands as staunchly anti-immigrant and very militantly in favor of hard-line cracking down methods on illegal immigrants and those Greeks who would assist and hire them. The emergence of this movement, which uses imagery that is vaguely reminiscent of the Nazi movement of Germany many decades ago, has more than raised some eyebrows, but seems a cause for alarm to many.

 One thing for sure: it should be very interesting to see what happens now, in France, in Greece, and indeed, in Europe in general!