AFC Championship Game Preview

So, I previewed the NFC Championship Game yesterday, and it's only natural, then, that I do so now with the AFC Championship Game.

The thing is, it's tricky. Sometimes, you can pretty much have a good idea of who is going to win well ahead of time. I got a strong feeling last year that the Packers were destined to win, because they were just red hot at that point, and it was hard to imagine the Bears actually making it to the Super Bowl. The Steelers always do well at home, so although I hoped the Jets would win, it seemed likely that Pittsburgh would get back to the Super Bowl.

This year, though, it's a bit tougher. The Giants are hot and seem to be peaking at the right time, so I picked them, although it's certainly not a laughable notion to think the 49ers will win. Still, the Giants are my pick to come out of the NFC.

In the AFC, however, it is not as clear cut. Instinct tells me that both teams are vulnerable. The Ravens and the Patriots both seemed a bit shaky towards the end of the season, although they both managed at least to hang on and clinch their top two seeds, respectively.

In the case of the Ravens, it seemed that they just got to the finish line before stumbling. They managed to sweep the Steelers, a team that they had a bad history against in the recent past. Yet, the Steelers kept nipping at their heels, and the Ravens could not seem to get any cushion to feel that their divisional lead was comfortable. A bad loss or two here and there certainly did not help matters. Of course, Baltimore did hang on and win the division, and the Steelers had a bad loss themselves in the Wildcard, to Tim Tebow and the Broncos., who themselves lost to the Patriots last week in a blowout.

The Ravens played the Houston Texans, who have a tremendous defense themselves, perhaps even better than the Ravens defense, arguably. Baltimore won, but not nearly by the margin of comfort that I expected. They did not play anywhere near as well, and yes, I am aware that the Texans had a little something to do with that, of course. Yet, the expectations for the Ravens are higher than that, and so they now made me a bit nervous. They are usually such a stellar team, but there seems to be some games against weaker opponents where they get away with something and manage to escape disaster. Be that as it may, that should not be the case in the playoffs. Sure, Houston is tough, but the Ravens should have been tougher, less mistake-prone, and more fired up, seemingly. That was not a good sign, going on the road, into New England, one of the most daunting places to have to play.

A lot has been made of Baltimore's playoff successes these last few years, being the only team to have won at least one playoff game in each of the last four seasons. As impressive as that is, that also means that they are one of only two teams (the Jets are the other team) that won that many playoff games during that stretch that has yet to make it to the Super Bowl. In recent years (dating back to 2006), they were eliminated twice by the Steelers, and twice by the Colts. Neither of those teams are left, of course, and the Ravens already defeated New England on the road in the playoffs, a couple of years ago. Yet, both teams are different now then they were then, and this will be a different game, obviously. The Ravens were sharp in that game, and they would have to return to that form to have a chance. They certainly cannot repeat the way that they played in that last game against the Texans. The recent controversies with quarterback Joe Flacco are not likely to help matters, either. They need to keep focused if they are going to win, and such distractions are surely not helping matters.

The Patriots, as mentioned earlier, destroyed the Broncos in the playoffs, and so are likely everyone's favorites to get back to the Super Bowl. Yet, people forget, they seemed to struggle towards the end of the season, allowing both Miami and Buffalo to take sizable leads in New England. As impressive as it may have been to stage the subsequent comebacks that the Patriots pulled off to secure home field advantage, they nonetheless showed some vulnerabilities as well, although they certainly left no doubt against Denver last weekend. They are playing very sharply, crisply, and surely have playoff more experience with all of those Super Bowl appearances, right? Well, keep in mind that prior to the victory over Denver, New England had not won a playoff game since the undefeated 2007 season that wasn't. The shocking loss to the Giants was the first of three postseason losses in a row, one of which was to these same Ravens. The win against Denver kind of got the monkey off their back, yet the 8-8 Broncos are a team you would expect the Patriots to beat handily, especially at home. The Ravens are a different story.

Yet, the Broncos have a solid defense as well, and the Patriots sliced them up. They looked dangerous, and they have home field advantage.

So, it's a good contest, with no surefire bet. The Patriots seem very good, and have many advantages. However, the Ravens, at their best, are capable of beating the Patriots in New England, but they would indeed have to play their best. Any mistakes, especially early, could give New England some free opportunities and points, and this the Ravens cannot afford. It's a battle of one of the traditional elite defenses with the Ravens, versus the explosive offense of the Patriots.  Yet, something tells me that the Ravens offense, and particularly Flacco's handling of it, just might decide this one. If the Patirots are as opportunistic as they were last weekend, and the Ravens offense struggles again, it could be a long afternoon. If they are effective, however, then New England will have a tough time. That said, the Ravens obviously cannot get into a shootout with the Pats, because they cannot win that way. They will have to find a way to contain Brady & Company, which is easier said then done.

All in all, I expected the Ravens to win this game, honestly. Yet, the way that they have been playing, and especially with how weak they have tended to be on the road, I see the Patriots pulling it off right now, instead. These teams are fairly evenly matched, so nothing would surprise me. But if I had to put my money down on somebody, I would say it's New England in a tight one, capitalizing on mistakes by Baltimore. This one will likely go into the fourth quarter, and a rout by either team is unlikely.