NFL Thanksgiving Review

Way back in August, I made some predictions about the upcoming season. Since the conventional wisdom in the NFL (at least, according to the pregame show guys, mostly ex-football players and/or coaches), the key is to be in playoff position by around Thanksgiving, and then to make a real push towards the end.

Well, Thanksgiving is here, and there are plenty of teams that find themselves with a chance at making the playoffs, or at least a serious run at it. For whatever reason, there seems to be more NFC teams that are contending than there are in the AFC. Not sure why that is, but it makes the NFC playoff picture a bit murkier, clouded by so many different stories in each division. The Giants, Redskins and the Cowboys right now seem to be battling for the NFC East title, and two of those teams will be battling on the field later today. The Cowboys, of course, traditionally are one of two teams that always host a game on this holiday. The other team is the Detroit Lions, who will be hosting the red-hot Houston Texans. The Texans look to extend their lead in the race for home field advantage in the AFC, while the reeling Lions just hope to win to stay alive in the playoff picture. At least they have home field advantage in this one.

In the Thanksgiving Night game, the Jets, fresh off their win at St. Louis, will play host to the red hot New England Patriots, who have now won four games in a row, and are really starting to look like themselves, after an uncharacteristically bad start.

Today, I see the Cowboys escaping with a win against Washington, the Texans should dominate Detroit, and New England will get past New York.

So, let's take a look, division by division, at each team, where they stand right now, and how that compares with my August predictions:

NFC

NFC East:

1. New York Giants (6-4) More or less, they are having the kind of season I predicted back then, only they are in first, not second place. Of course, the could change, because their lead currently is slight. Still, barring some thing unforeseen, either pro or con, this team looks like they will likely finish up around 10-6 or 9-7, with a real possibility for a first place finish, or at least second place, with a chance at a playoff berth.

2. Dallas Cowboys (5-5) Not much of a surprise here, either. They are where I thought they would be, more or less. It's hard to tell whether the Cowboys are very good, or just average. They won a couple of games against teams with winning records (Tampa and the Giants), but lost five games against winning teams. The last two weeks, they barely beat two of the weakest teams in the league. Still, more or less what could be expected of this team so far.

3. Washington Redskins (4-6) Okay, here is a bit of a surprise. I expected there to be an adjustment period for RG3. Yet, right away, they seemed more competitive then expected, beating the Saints in new Orleans. They also beat Tampa Bay on the road, and Minnesota, both winning teams. Like with Dallas, it is a bit difficult to tell if they are better then their record indicates, or not, since they have had a tough schedule. Still, 4-6 is better than I expected from this team, and if they manage to upset the Cowboys in Dallas today, then they would have to be considered a serious contender to make the playoffs this year.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (3-7) Now, here's the real surprise. This was my pick to take the division. After a disappointing season last year, I thought that this talented team would come on strong. They did, initially, with an impressive 3-1 start, during which time they beat both the Raven and the Giants, and looked very tough. But since then? Absolutely atrocious! They were losing narrowly at the beginning of the losing streak, but the blowout loss to the Redskins, and that on the heels of loss to the Cowboys that saw them completely collapse late in the second half after nursing a lead, suggests that this team knows that their season is over. I am wondering why I did not see this coming, with Vick's health having been a concern in the past. But the whole team appears to be in disarray.

NFC North:

1. Green Bay Packers (7-3) True, they got off to a very slow start, losing some surprising games to the 49ers (not that shocking), the Seahawks  (pretty shocking) and the Indianapolis Colts (very shocking). Still, remember, the Packers really actually won that game in Seattle, but were robbed. Otherwise, this team would be sitting pretty at 8-2 right now. Yet, after all that they have been through, they are on top of the division, with the tiebreaker over the Bears right now. I projected them to finish 13-3, and although they are behind where I expected, this team has a chance to finish strong and look like one of the solid favorites heading into the playoffs.

2. Chicago Bears (7-3) This season seems to look more and more like last season for the Bears. A red hot start, followed by injuries and a series of losses. The current two game losing streak needs to end now, or the Bears are in serious trouble. The defense still is solid, although perhaps not quite as dominant as it looked earlier in the season, and their offense is being slowed by injuries. Still, they have a chance for a solid season. They have some tough games, and my guess is that this is a second place team, at best. That said, if they take care of their home games, they have a chance at the division title, still. I predicted them to finish 10-6, and they still could.

3. Minnesota Vikings (6-4) Here is another surprising team. They went 3-13 last season, and won a total of eight games in the previous two seasons combined. So, for them to have gotten off to the red hot start this season, and to be sitting with a 6-4 record right now, that is impressive. They are in third, but with a victory in Chicago, they could really make some noise. With three consecutive divisional games, the time to step up is now for Minnesota. I predicted them to finish 4-12, and they have already surpassed that. However, it is still hard for me to imagine this team being good enough to qualify for the playoffs admittedly.

4. Detroit Lions (4-6) I predicted them to finish 10-6, and it appears that I was wrong, as they already have six losses, but only four wins. Looking at the schedule the rest of the way, the Lions have some tough teams to get by, and I just don't see them doing it this year.

NFC South:

1. Atlanta Falcons (9-1) You kind of knew this team would be good, but not that good. My projections in August were 10-6 on the season for Atlanta, but they are about to surpass that, it seems. They are almost assured of the division title, and have a very good shot at home field advantage. But there still are six games, and they have to continue to execute. Their next two games are tough division rivalries, and four of the last six games are against serious playoff contenders as of this moment, so stay tuned!

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) Another surprise here. Coming off a terrible season, and with a coaching transition, I expected this team to struggle, projecting a 5-11 record back in August. Clearly, I was wrong, and this team currently has a pretty massive four game winning streak. they are new and improved, but the rest of their schedule looks tough, and I don't see them quite reaching the playoffs.

3. New Orleans Saints (5-5) This team has been a huge surprise, and not in a good way. I expected them to be one of the toughest teams in the NFC, but the 0-4 start was just horrible. Yet, they have won five of their last six, and are showing clear signs of life. I still think this is a far better team then their record indicates, and I see them making a real push to the playoffs. But let's just hope for their sake that they did not exert so much energy in getting back to .500, that they will now be exhausted entering what could prove their toughest stretch of the season. Only one real lock for a win the rest of the way, and that is the finale against Carolina.

4. Carolina Panthers (2-8) I saw this team being a disappointment at 6-10 this season, but I had no idea that they would be this bad. They cannot seem to hold a lead in the fourth quarter, and the list of issues facing this team is long and daunting. True, they have some winnable games down the home stretch of this season, but surely, their opponents feel that way about this team, as well. A tough year for the Panthers, who will have more questions than answers heading into the offseason.

NFC West:

1. San Fransisco 49ers (7-2-1) More or less what I expected from this team back in August. They look very solid defensively, and at times, have seemed explosive offensively. With the possible exception of Seattle, the rest of the division is weak, and so this team looks like they will waltz into the playoffs as division champs, and with a high seed.

2. Seattle Seahawks (6-4) Here is a bit of a surprise, although I still think that they lost that game to Green Bay, and that the back up refs essentially gifted them that game. Still, Seattle is tough at home (5-0), and if they hold service with at least two of their remaining three home games, and maybe pull off one or two wins on the road in what appear to be winnable games, this team should be a serious contender for at least a playoff berth, and perhaps even an outside chance at ousting San Fran from the top spot in the division, if they really get hot and play their cards right. I expected them to be around 7-9, but they clearly are set to surpass my low expectations of them.

3. Arizona Cardinals (4-6) Sure, the Cardinals looked amazing and surprising in starting off this season with an undefeated 4-0 start. But since then, they have looked just awful in their winless 0-6 streak since. Their awesome start is the only thing keeping this team from being cellar dwellers in the division, and I don't even think that will last much longer. The season will likely continue to unravel. I predicted them to finish 6-10 in August, and that's more or less where they seem to be heading, too.

4. St. Louis Rams (3-6-1) They looked much better for quite a while this season, yet now, they have not won since early October. I projected them at 5-11, and that sounds like the neighborhood that this team will be in at season's end. Jeff Fisher is doing a good job and slowly turning this team around, but this season was likely to be a rebuilding season, and so it is.


AFC

AFC East:

1. New England Patriots (7-3) Another up and down season, where the Patriots get off to a surprisingly sluggish start, and then really begin to turn it on down the stretch. Each season, they seem to get hot in the second half and enjoy a long winning streak, and if they defeat the Jets today (which I frankly expect them to do), they will be on such a winning streak, and will further establish themselves as the best team in this division still, and by far. I predicted them to go 14-2, and clearly, that's not happening. Still, I expect this team to win the division easily, and be one of the tougher teams once in the playoffs, as well, although a playoff bye is not likely - and this team probably needs it if they hope for a return trip to the Super Bowl.

2. New York Jets (4-6) Same old Jets. A lot of talk, a lot of distractions, but not much in the way of results.  Still, the rest of the season has some winnable games, and if the Jets manage to upset New England tonight, they could really put something together to finish the season up strong. But this is the Jets we're talking about here. I predicted them to go 7-9, and that sounds about right. No playoffs for the Jets, and maybe it's time to get rid of Rex.

3. Buffalo Bills (4-6) This was my sleeper pick. I projected them to finish second in the division, with a 9-7 record. They have a mix of tough games and very winnable games the rest of the way, but the playoffs might just be out of reach already. I am guessing they will end now around 6-10 or 7-9, roughly. Too bad, because this looked like an improved team. But those two losses to the New England Patriots were just killers.

4. Miami Dophins (4-6) A mild surprise in Miami, where a team that seemed destined to struggle has, instead, enjoyed some success. I thought this team would go 5-11, and they are clearly better than that. But not enough to be legit. This is not a playoff team, especially with some really tough games to end their season.

AFC North:

1. Baltimore Ravens (8-2) More or less where I expected this team to be. Despite the one humiliating blowout loss in the showdown versus the Texans, this team is the number two right now in the AFC, and having just beaten Pittsburgh, it looks like that is where they should remain, at least. This is a team that should have a playoff bye, and will have a chance to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) The Steelers have not looked that great often times this season, although they had found some consistency prior to the loss against Baltimore this past Sunday. They will not win the division, and will likely not reach the 11-5 record I predicted for this team. Still, an experienced team with rings in their ecent past, and that makes them dangerous once the playoffs roll around.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (5-5) For a while this season looked lost. They were 3-1, and with games against Miami and Cleveland, had a real shot at reaching 5-1. Instead, they lost both games, and tailspinned to a four game losing streak. But two impressive wins in a row have restored faith and confidence, hopefully, and this team should make a real push to the playoffs. I see them more or less where I expected them in August, finishnig around 9-7, and with a real chance at qualifying for the playoffs again.

4. Cleveland Browns (2-8) Fresh off a hugely disappointing loss that should have been a win at Dallas, the Browns have been out of the playoff mix since very early in the season. There are some games that this team could still win, but my projections of 3-13 seem right on the mark with these guys, unfortunately. I understand some of the local Cleveland fans describe the city as football purgatory. After that loss to the Cowboys, I'm starting to believe it. Terrible!

AFC South:

1. Houston Texans (9-1) Barring something truly unforeseen, this is a division champ, and likely a team that should enjoy a playoff bye, to boot. But the rest of their schedule is tough, with two games against the Colts, one at New England, and four of the remaining six games are on the road. They should win the division, but if they do not remain consistent, the top seed, and along with it home field advantage, could slip away, and I think this team needs it if they hope to represent this conference in the Super Bowl. I expected them to be 11-5, but it looks like I might have sold them short.

2. Indianapolis Colts (6-4) Who knew that they would be this good? Not I, who projected them to finish 5-11, and nowhere near a playoff berth. Yet, Luck and Co. are doing just fine, thank you very much! This team has a real chance at the playoffs, and it will likely be either them, or the Bengals, for that final AFC spot.

3. Tennessee Titans (4-6) More or less, this is around where I expected this team. Not that good, but not that bad, either. They are not the Jaguars, after all. I expected them to be around 7-9, or so, and I'm sticking with that, although they could be 6-10. Not much better, but not much worse.  Still a rebuilding team.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) Exactly what I expected! They should be thankful that they won that one game that they won, or they would seriously be flirting with a winless season. Let's face it: the Jaguars suck. I projected this to be a one win season for Jax, and although it's hard to predict a team finishing with only a win to their name in an entire season, especially since they played nearly well enough to win against Houston, I see no reason to change my projections for a one win season. A cosmetic team if I ever saw one.

AFC West:

1. Denver Broncos (7-3) It took them a while to get the thing going, but man, did they ever get it going! Looking at their season now, the only games that they lost were against some of the best teams in the league. Otherwise, this is a solid team that seems to be getting better as they go along. I expected an 11-5 season, and that is more or less where this team will likely be. Solid season, and this team likely will win a second division title in a row. But not enough for a playoff bye, let alone home field advantage, unless they really step up and pull a few surprises. But the acquisition of Peyton Manning, which seemed like a real risk, now looks like a brilliant move.

2. San Diego Chargers (4-6) A disappointment, to say the least. I projected them to finish 10-6. But following a seemingly promising 2-0 start, this team has won only two games out their last eight, and both of those were to the lowly Chiefs. What a collapse, and the game that best symbolized it was the Monday Night game against Denver, when they were up 24-0 in the second half, but lost, 35-24. That pretty well encapsulated the season for the Chargers. No playoffs for this team once again, but they will win at least a couple more, for what it's worth.

3. Oakland Raiders (3-7) One very impressive win against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and two wins against very weak opponents. But otherwise, the Oakland Raiders are suffering through yet another terrible season that leaves the fans of the Raiders that I know ready for next season by October. They just cannot win with any measure of consistency. They will get a couple more wins before the end of the season, most likely. But my prediction of a 9-7 season seems now to have been misplaced, and my faith in this team lost.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (1-9) Frankly, it's hard to believe that this team won a game at New Orleans, since that is the only win that this team got to enjoy so far. As bad as New Orleans started this season, Kansas City got really lucky with that one. This is a horrible team suffering through all sorts of problems, including both injuries and inconsistent play. They have some winnable games the rest of the way, but nothing is a sure bet for this team. I predicted a lowly 6-10 season for this team, but even that was giving them too much credit.