Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Super Tuesday

Okay, so today is one of the most important dates in any presidential election year.

Super Tuesday, when a huge chunk of states simultaneously hold their election primaries.

For the Democrats, up for grab are the following: Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, as well as for Democrats living abroad.

For the Republicans, up for grab are the following: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia.

Obviously, that is a long list of states for each party, and a lot is up for grab.

On the Republican side, billionaire Donald Trump is in position to score some major wins. If he manages to win Texas in particular, then the campaign of Ted Cruz, who's home state is Texas, would be in big trouble. If Trump gets big wins in most of the states in the primaries (and he has a big lead, despite recent controversies with his lack of disavowal of David Duke, a former leader of the Ku Klux Klan), then he likely will have to be granted frontrunner status to take the Republican nomination, and it would be unlikely that any other candidate could seriously dislodge him from that top spot.

Trump is expected to win in almost all of the states, with the big and very notable exception of Texas, where Cruz has a significant lead and is expected to win, which would surely rejuvenate his campaign considerably. Still, Trump would have most of the inroads to the Republican nomination if he carries literally all of those other states, especially if he has a strong showing (if not necessarily a win) in Texas.

On the Democratic side, Hillary is expected to win most of the states, although Sanders has a lead in Minnesota, Oklahoma (his best chance to win a southern state), and, not surprisingly, his home state of Vermont. He is competitive in Colorado, Massachusetts, and American Samoa.

Still, it seems likely that Clinton will largely carry the day, which in turn means that this unusual election season would very much continue for the Republicans with Trump in front, while for the Democrats, the establishment might start to get it's way with Hillary jumping out to a big lead. Still, there are big races in California, New York, and Michigan which Sanders still feels confident about, and it could still be interesting.

This is the big day that everybody has been talking about for quite some time. Let's see what happens!

Super Tuesday - 2016 ELECTION published by fivethirtyeight.com, FEB 29, 2016:

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