Super Bowl XLV

Okay, so I was wrong about the Jets versus the Packers Super Bowl for this year. Or, perhaps another way of looking at it, was that I was half right. Green Bay did defeat Chicago to win the NFC Championship, and will thus be in Dallas in two weeks. In the meantime, the AFC title went to the Pittsburgh Steelers again, for the third time in six years (a veritable dynasty, especially if they win) and for the eighth time overall, tying them for the most Super Bowl appearances with the team that normally plays in the new stadium that will host this year’s Super Bowl, the Dallas Cowboys.

So, what can we expect on Super Bowl Sunday? The Packers have looked awesome, and Aaron Rodgers seems to be the hot quarterback of the moment. The Steelers have looked consistently good, and perhaps at times close to great, throughout the season, and find themselves yet again having somehow survived to this stage more by surviving then dominating.

There have been points this season where both teams looked absolutely on fire, but yesterday’s conference clinchers certainly would not rank among these for either team. The Packers looked sluggish and vulnerable, and Aaron Rodgers, ironically, had one of his worst days in a long, long time on what was the most important day of his career so far (but the next one will really bypass that, one way or the other). And the Steelers looked like world beaters themselves in the first half, until the Jets had that furious rally in the second half and, seemingly, completely outplayed Pittsburgh on the road, almost mounting the greatest comeback in Championship Game history. But no dice, as the Steel City’s beloved team hung on.

So both teams looked vulnerable, all too human. What can we expect?

Pittsburgh has been there and won two recent Super Bowls, and so definitely have the upper hand in terms of experience. The Steelers have that trademark, physical defense and smash mouth football style. Green Bay, on the other hand, has the more explosive offense, although their defense is underrated, and one of the league’s best in their own right. The Packers might be able to keep the Steelers offense in check, relatively, but the most talked about match-up will surely be between Rodger’s offense and the Steel Curtain defense.

Rodgers should have a better game than he did in Chicago, and the Packers will need to keep from making the critical mistakes that the Jets did. The Steelers are more than capable of winning without any help, so Green Bay will have to minimize any mistakes, and maximize Pittsburgh’s mistakes. The Steelers have the best defense against the rush, but Green Bay’s strength is in the passing game, so they will perhaps stretch the vaunted Steel Curtain to the limit. If the Packers offense gets rolling (and offenses seem to have the upper hand these days in the NFL), then watch out!

Perhaps the key match up will be from the less noisy sides of each team: The Steelers offense against the Packers defense. Pittsburgh is very dangerous, and Roethlisberger, while not the flashiest quarterback, is without doubt one of the most effective. Their overall game is solid, and while not the most explosive offensive team, the Packers defense will have to try and stop Pittsburgh from keeping the defense on the field, killing the clock, and keeping the hot and dangerous Green Bay offense off the field and cold, while the defenders grow fatigued from too much time spent on the field. This would likely be Pittsburgh’s best strategy to winning, if they can manage. The Packers will have to find the way to stop the Steelers offense, and to get a lot of three and outs. Give their offense a chance to win it for them.

Apropos of nothing, the momentum might be swinging back in favor of the NFC teams in the Super Bowl. The Giants toppled the Patriots a few years ago, and the Saints knocked off the Colts last year. What better way for the NFC to cement their newly favored status by beating that last of the AFC powerhouses that has yet to lose a Super Bowl under it’s current lineup?

Finally, as one side note that might have more significance than you might expect, I have to say that something tells me the Packers, who will technically be the home team in this Super Bowl, will follow the example of the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers themselves and choose to wear their white, away jerseys, which would quite rare. Why should this matter? Well, historically, the team wearing white jerseys in the Super Bowl have been far more successful than the teams wearing their dark jerseys, and that includes the last six straight Super Bowls, all won by the team wearing white. Not a guarantee of success, of course. But hey, why mess with what works?

I see Green Bay winning it and bringing back another trophy to Title Town, securing it with a clinching touchdown to put it out of reach late in the fourth. Packers, 28-17.