NFC South - The New Orleans Saints are mired in controversy. Usually, the off-season is a time to take a break, to assess what went wrong the season before, at least for those teams that had disappointing results the previous season. The Saints had a strong season, finishing up 13-3, and winning a playoff game. They were involved in a classic division round game against the 49ers, and seemed to have clinched the win with very little time left on the clock. But the defense faltered, allowing San Fransisco to have yet another miracle playoff win, one very reminiscent of Terrell Owen’s “The Catch II”. That may have seemed bad enough for New Orleans, and they needed to utilize the time in the off-season to assess what they needed and could improve upon. But the scandal has been making all of the news, and provided a nasty surprise, as well as tarnishing their reputation. It seemed somewhat similar to the Patriots scandal of 2007. What remains to be seen is how New Orleans will now react, and they could take some lessons from New England back then. The Saints still have an excellent offense, behind first rate quarterback Drew Brees. They scored over five hundred points, which is a true mark of excellence. The only reason more people did not take notice, was that the Saints remained largely in the shadow of the defending champion Packers all season, who had an even more amazing offense. But there really were no problems with the offense down in the Big Easy. But they need to keep the pieces in place, and stay consistent, and their offense needs to be up to the task to remain one of the favorites this season. Their defense has something to prove, as well. It was the defense that allowed the fewest points of any team within the NFC South last season, but that is not a huge accomplishment, as the defenses throughout this division tended to rank low. Even though this team had it’s share of problems on defense, having an offense to build a solid lead for you in most games will make any defense look decent, and that should figure to be the case again. Let’s not forget that this team won it all three seasons ago, and they still have many of the right pieces in place, despite all the distractions. The Saints lost a couple of games last season to teams that they had no business losing to – namely the Rams and the Buccaneers. That cost them, as they ended up being the third, rather than the second, seed in the playoffs. One has to wonder if the Saints might not have won that epic division round game against the 49ers had it taken place in New Orleans
The Atlanta Falcons had a strong series of seasons lately. Historically, they had always had problems stringing solid seasons together, never managing consecutive winning seasons through the first decades of their existence. But all of that began to change lately, when the Falcons enjoyed a strong 2008 season, returning to the playoffs. Since then they have had winning seasons every year, and made it to the playoffs again in 2010 and 2011, even managing to be the top seed in the NFC in 2010, with a 13-3 record. That’s the good news. The bad news? Despite making it to the playoffs in three of the last four seasons, they have yet to win a playoff game in that stretch. Given the enormity of talent on this team, particularly on the offensive side, this is a bit of a surprise, and certainly a disappointment. Matt Ryan is a notch or two under being considered an elite quarterback, but winning in the postseason is a must if he is to make that jump at some point in the future. Until he does, he cannot be considered in the same class as the other accomplished and talented quarterbacks in this league. He has at least one elite wide receiver to throw to, and he helps make other receivers better. The Falcons are loaded offensively, and have as good an opportunity as ever to enjoy success this year. Depending on how the Saints respond to the controversies surrounding them, the Falcons may very well have a shot again at a division title, which they won a couple of seasons ago. It is hard to imagine either the Buccaneers or the Panthers being quite ready to challenge in this division, so in many ways, it has seemed, and will probably continue to seem, like kind of a tag team with the Falcons and Saints taking turns beating on their opponents. I see Atlanta enjoying success this year, but not enough to overtake New Orleans. The Falcons have to hope that the controversies, or other factors, slow the Saints down, because New Orleans is still the best team in the division. Still, Atlanta should be a playoff team, at the very least. But the trick would be to finally win once they are there, or the questions and doubts about where this team is and where they are headed will not only continue, but will grow more nagging and persistent.
The Carolina Panthers have a new star in quarterback Cam Newton, and he looks like he can have a brilliant career ahead of him. He made all sorts of headlines last season, and had a truly historical season. The trick now is to follow that up successfully. Teams will be a little more prepared for him this time around, though, so it might prove a bit more challenging, although his diversity and unpredictability will likely keep defenses honest, at the very least. But even then, the Panthers just are not equipped to be a consistent winner. As electrifying as Cam Newton was, the offense was consistently good, but not yet among the true elites in the league. They managed to score thirty points or more only three times all season, and two of those were against Tampa, who allowed the most points of any team in the league last season. Luckily, being in the same division, the Panthers played them twice. The only other team that allowed the Panthers so many points was the Lions, and the Panthers lost that game. But Carolina’s offense was nearer the top than the bottom last season, and that was a huge improvement over the previous season, when they were the worst rated offense in the league. The Panthers are improving and appear to be on the rise, and very well may be a team with a bright future. But they are the type of team that could improve this season in terms of play, and yet not have a better record than they did last season to show for it. This will likely be a team that can contend for the playoffs in the future, but having to meet the Saints and the Falcons twice apiece this season, not to mention some of their other upcoming opponents, is going to be tough. I doubt that they are actually strong enough to make a serious playoff run this year, although they seem to be heading in the right direction for the long term. Maybe comparisons are not in order, but this team could do well to learn from the example of the Rams, who were an abysmal 1-15 in 2009, then surprised and even awed a lot of people with the level of improvement in their play the next season. Expectations were high in 2011, but the Rams crashed and burned, and finished with a horrendous 2-14 mark. Carolina needs to avoid a letdown like that. Behind Cam Newton, they should be able to do that, and to continue improving at a good pace. They should far better than the one team that they moved past in every way last season….
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are rather a difficult team to understand. Ever since winning the Super Bowl (ten seasons ago, now!), Tampa has shown a remarkable lack of consistency. One year, they are a solid playoff contender. The next, they are down in the dumps yet again. Three years ago, the Bucs were a losing team without many prospects, Two seasons ago, they went 10-6, and although they missed the playoffs with such a strong record, the future seemed promising. Than last season, they seemed halfway decent midway through the season, starting off 4-2 six games in, before a monstrous 10-game losing streak that stretched all the way to the end of the season, as they finished with a dismal 4-12. So, what happened? Well, everything bottomed out for the Bucs. It was like the 1980’s all over again. The biggest problem was on defense, where Tampa just couldn’t stop anybody anymore. They allowed more points than anyone else in the league, and this was particularly visible in the second half of the season. Through their first six games, Tampa had allowed only one opponent to score thirty points or more on them. In the last five games alone, they allowed every opponent to score at least thirty points, and three times during that stretch, they allowed more than forty points. When your defense is that bad, you just are not going to win a lot of football games, even if your offense is incredible. But Tampa’s offense was not incredible. In fact, it was pretty terrible, ranking close to the bottom. The most points that they managed to score in the 2011 season was 26, which they did twice. Their running game was largely absent for far too many games last season. Quarterback Joshua Freeman enjoyed success two years ago, and was the uncontested starting job last season. All the pieces seemed to be in place for a run at the playoffs, and indeed, through the first third or so, Tampa appeared to be a contender, but everything fell apart in a hurry. Too much of the responsibility fell of Freeman’s shoulders. Now, entering this season, they are not entering as one of the favorites. Perhaps they are not actually that far removed from the 10-6 record two seasons ago, and will show some glimpses of that this season. Stepping up as new coach is former Rutgers head man Greg Schiano, who managed to turn around a long suffering Rutgers unit. It will be interesting to see what his approach to the game brings to the Buccaneers. But whatever the outcome, it likely will take more than a year for this team to really turn their fortunes around. For the Bucs, a third place finish would be an improvement, and they are not likely to enjoy another winning season, or even come close to .500.
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