We know the two teams that have survived to reach this point: the Oklahoma City Thunder for the West, and the Miami Heat for the East.
This is a terrific and intriguing match-up, and in fact, these two teams were the pick for a lot of people heading into this season - including me! For once, my preseason picks were correct. Both of these teams are tremendously talented, and both of these teams can appear virtually unstoppable when they are firing on all cylinders. In many respects, they are a mirror image of one another.
Oklahoma City is led by Kevin Durant, the NBA's scoring leader for the past three seasons. This is a young and dangerous team that should see some very strong teams in the near future, always assuming they manage to keep the nucleus of this team together, and remain healthy. The consensus is that, win or lose this series, the Thunder should be a strong title contender for a long time to come. They have emerged as the best team in the West, with aging teams like the Lakers, Spurs, and Mavericks not likely able to keep up in the long run.
Since leaving the city of Seattle a few years ago (and boy, don't the fans in Seattle feel robbed?), this franchise went from a struggling team lacking an identity, to a playoff team that pushed the mighty Lakers to a tough, six-game series, to a run to the Western Conference Finals last year, where they lost to the eventual NBA champion Dallas Mavericks, to finally this season. All they did this season was roll through the regular season, leading through most of it but relinquishing the top seed in the conference to the very hot San Antonio Spurs (I'll get to them in a minute). Then, the Thunder swept past the team that knocked them out of last year's playoffs, the defending champion Mavericks. They dispatched the Lakers with relative ease in five, and then faced an 0-2 hole to the San Antonio Spurs, a team with recent championship rings to their credit, only to show composure and rediscover themselves. The Spurs had the best record in the league, as well as a seeming historic, twenty game win streak when the series shifted to Oklahoma City, but the Thunder handing them four straight defeats to end their very promising season in bitter disappointment. It should be noted that the Thunder are undefeated at home in these playoffs. There were a few close calls, but they still managed to win all of their games with the comfort of home court advantage - and they have the home court advantage in this series, too..
The Miami Heat, on the other hand, have had the weight of high expectations on their shoulders for years now, ever since LeBron James and his infamous tv interview with Bob Costas, when he famously (or infamously?) revealed his decision that he was bringing his talents to South Beach. Of course, South Beach is not where the Heat play basketball, but the symbolism of that was perhaps a bit overdrawn. James received a lot of criticism for his decision, which was seen as tantamount to abandoning and betraying his native city of Cleveland, where he had been since the start of his career, but where he had also failed to win a championship - although they had made the NBA Finals once, and had come close to reaching it again in his final season. Instantly, the Miami Heat became the new bad guys, if you will, as they brought along James and Chris Bosh, to add to a lineup that already included star Dwayne Wade, who had led the Miami Heat to their only NBA Championship to date in 2006.
Last year, the Heat were one of the flashiest teams in the league, and were widely considered the favorites by many experts. They had some ups and downs, but were still the number two seed in the East going into the playoffs. They more or less steamrolled their way to the NBA Finals, and were favored to beat the Dallas Mavericks, the same team that they had defeated in their only prior appearance in 2006. All was going according to schedule, too. At least through the first three games, with the Heat up two games to one.
But then, something unexpected (to most) happened. The Mavericks got hot, and won three straight to win the NBA Finals, and exact a measure of revenge on the Heat for the 2006 series, when they had entered as heavy favorites and enjoyed a comfortable 2-0 lead, only to drop four straight. Now, the Mavericks did the same to Miami, and since the Heat were considered the bad guys, many rejoiced. Many recalled how James and Wade had made fun of Mavericks star Dirk Nowitzki, who had gotten sick during the series. So, the popular view was that the arrogant and seemingly entitled Heat had finally gotten their just rewards in getting bounced out of the series, and humiliated in the process.
LeBron James, certainly one of the greatest players out there, had received much criticism for his decision to leave Cleveland and join a suddenly star-studded lineup with the Heat in Miami. Some stars questioned his drive, saying that it was tantamount to taking the easy way out, that he apparently was not sure he could win the NBA title on his own, and did not have the patience to wait for talent to be added in Cleveland. He himself had some poor performances in the playoffs, particularly when it counted the most - in the fourth quarter. So jokes mocking his inability to close out a game abounded. I remember one that was particularly popular at the time.
"Why shouldn't you ask LeBron James for change for a dollar?"
"Because he only has three quarters."
A variation of that claimed that he had no fourth quarter.
Whether deserved or not, Miami took some heat for the loss, and had all off-season to think about it, too. Going into this season, they once again were under the microscope and received a lot of scrutiny. The ups and downs made big news, and their heart was questioned. Then came the playoffs, which began with a predictably easy victory over the Knicks in five. In the second round, the Heat ran into some problems, losing two in a row to the Indiana Pacers, with Dwayne Wade having a memorable breakdown in discipline, having a historically bad game which itself was overshadowed with a very public display showing surprising immaturity It was starting to look like an all too familiar story for the Heat, as they faced the prospect of an early exit from the playoffs that many had favored them to win.
That was when things really began to turn around for them, as LeBron James suddenly played his best basketball, and the Heat not only tied up the series, but won three straight to close out the Pacers. They faced adversity again against the Boston Celtics, who were largely seen as an aging team, but who really pushed Miami as far as they could go. The Heat survived, largely thanks to the heroics of James, although Wade's strong showing, as well as the recovery from injury of Chris Bosh, helped to pull the Heat through this one.
Now, here is a very intriguing Finals match-up. This year's scoring leader, Kevin Durant, against this year's league MVP, LeBron James. A star-studded series of hot offensive teams, with a ton of points most likely about to be scored. This could be basketball at it's finest.
Once again, it should be tight. These two teams are relatively evenly matched, and it could very well come down to home court advantage. If it goes that far, both Game 6 and Game 7 will be played in Oklahoma City - a not inconsiderable advantage. It should be an advantage, but focusing too exclusively on that would be to detract from the argument over which of these teams is the better team.
So, the time has come for my prediction. I will admit to not liking the Heat, and actively routing against them, especially when they were in trouble against the Pacers and the Celtics. But they survived those series, and showed a lot of character in so doing, to boot. That said, the Thunder played the tougher opponents, with all three of their Western Conference series being against recent NBA Champions with star line-ups. They swept the Mavericks, last year's champs. They beat the Lakers in five, who were champs in 2009 & 2010. They won four straight against the previously red-hot Spurs, winners of several championships, the most recent one being in 2007. The Heat, by comparison, beat the Boston Celtics, the 2008 champs, who were widely considered to be too old to have much of a future with this same lineup.
Also, the Thunder rolled. By contrast, the Heat waned, and that against weaker opponents. They made some mistakes, they gave up too many points, and against much less talented teams than Oklahoma City. If they give anything away like that in this series, don't expect them to win. Don't even expect them to make a long series out of it. I don't believe Miami has any wiggle room. If they want to win this, they will have to play perfectly.
LeBron is playing perhaps his best ever basketball, and that has to be encouraging for the Heat. But I don't think it will be enough. Oklahoma City is just too good, they have too many weapons, have gained valuable experience, and are just too hungry. Home court is yet one more factor in their favor, and they really are just hot. They have more momentum going into this series than most teams do at this point, which places them in truly elite territory. It is hard to see them losing this one, and frankly, I just don't see it happening. LeBron will have a good series that may serve to vindicate him from past failures, but it won't be enough. the Oklahoma City Thunder should win the NBA Championship in six.
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