Tomorrow, the Netherlands will take on the Cinderella story of this World Cup, Costa Rica. And Argentina will face Belgium.
The winners will move on to the semifinals, with a chance to win their way to the final. The losers, of course, go home.
So, since I've made picks so far this World Cup, I see no reason to change now.
I'm rather proud to say that my picks for the last round panned out. At least, those four games that I got to make picks with, since I was on vacation at the time, and with limited access.
But here they were, as posted on June 29th:
France will defeat Nigeria.
Germany will defeat Algeria.
Argentina will knock out Switzerland.
And, finally, Belgium will fend off the United States, in a game that likely will go to extra time, if not outright penalty kicks.
No major surprises, although I think Argentina and Germany, particularly, may struggle a bit. They both should survive, but one or the other, or both, might find themselves in a bit more of a nail-biter than they would hope for.
Okay, there are my predictions.
The first games come later today. I will revisit my predictions in reviewing the games, and see how well those predictions held out (or didn't).
Not bad, if I say so myself.!
That's certainly no guarantee of future success, but I think it's fair to say that I was pretty well on the mark with those games, although I did not think that France would struggle to the extent that they did in their game.
And if there's one thing that we can probably all agree on with this unpredictable World Cup at this point, it is this: there is no single country that looks so good and dominant, that they should be considered the clear cut favorites to win it all. Whoever wins this World Cup, there is a good chance that it will be the team that survives, more than dominates, the rest of the way.
Of course, there are four games to be played during this holiday weekend (at least in the United States), and four teams will survive to move on to the next round.
And so, without further ado, my picks for the quarterfinals:
France versus Germany
Both France and Germany looked shaky and vulnerable in their lst games France and Germany both tend to thrive on offense, but there was precious little offense that either side showed for quite some time. It took France late into the second half to get their first goal, and they were able to add another one on to win it in regulation. For Germany, they were unable to produce any great chances at all until the second half, and were unable to convert any through regulation time. But they scored early in the extra time, and added another goal later.
In the case of both Germany and France, however, it must be said that the defenses and goaltending have looked generally solid.
To this point, both France and Germany are undefeated, with identical records of three wins and one draw. Germany has scored 9 goals, and allowed three. France has scored ten goals, and allowed only two. At this point in time in the 1998 World Cup France had scored 10 goals and allowed only one. No, I'm not necessarily suggesting that France will win this World Cup. But I'm also not saying that they definitely won't win it.
Germany is considered the favorite by most, and a strong favorite at that.
What I will predict, here and now, is that France, who have historically struggled against Germany, will win this contest later today. I think it will be a tight affair, but yes, I believe France will find a way to win, and move on to the next round.
Germany has looked vulnerable in every game that they played since demolishing Portugal in the opener. They very nearly lost to Ghana, and looked like they were just hanging on against the US. Then, they looked like the inferior team, even though they were billed as the far superior team, against Algeria. In fact, for a while there, it looked like they were going to lose.
In the meantime, France looked solid in both of their opening games, and then had a scoreless tie against Ecuador. They produced some quality chances against Nigeria, and held off some decent chances by Nigeria. But they have not yet been pushed to the brink like Germany has, and they are probably the best team that Germany has faced (both of these teams are facing their best opponents yet in the World Cup in today's showdown).
So, I think France will exploit Germany's weaknesses better than their previous opponents have, and will advance to the semifinals!
Prediction: France
Brazil versus Colombia
This is a tough one.
I mean, Colombia has looked incredible so far in this tournament. If there is one team that has looked anywhere near dominant in this tournament. They won all four games that they played, one of the few teams that can boast that, and did so while scoring 11 goals, and allowing only 2! There was only one game that they did not win by multiple goals, that being the contest against Côte d'Ivoire, which they won 2-1.
Brazil, in the meantime, has not always played anywhere near the level that many expected, and wanted, them to play at. In four games, they have won three games, with one draw. But they struggled mightily against Mexico, and almost lost that one. They also struggled mightily against Chile, and probably should have lost that one, quite frankly.
All of that said, it is very difficult to make any predictions against a strong host nation, and especially when that host happens to be Brazil. Especially since, let's face it, Brazil often tends to historically benefit from bad calls in their favor in World Cups, and that trend is likely to continue in a World Cup hosted by Brazil itself.
So, how can you predict against them?
But here I go, making exactly that prediction.
My pick in this one is for Colombia. Brazil looks like a team weighed down by expectations, and the truth is that this version of Brazil does not look like the Brazil that we have seen in other World Cups, a couple of which they have won in the last two decades. They are still probably capable of winning the whole thing, but the shakiness that they have displayed worries me enough to think that this team is perhaps more likely to suffer some sort of collapse.
Colombia looks better than I have ever seen them before, and being a South American team themselves, they kind of benefit from a sort of home field advantage themselves. Not in this game, obviously. But still, they have looked very solid, and I think they will push Brazil harder than Brazil has been pushed to date.
And, yes, I predict that they will pull off the stunner, and break Brazilian hearts!
My prediction: Colombia wins!
Argentina versus Belgium
This is the only battle
Belgium has scored 6 goals, and allowed only 2. They have not exactly dominated to achieve their perfect record so far, but they have nonetheless managed to win all of their games thus far.
Argentina, too, have won all of their games. They scored 7 goals to this points, and allowed only 3.
What's interesting in both cases is that both teams have won all of their matches thus far by a single goal. So, despite perfect records, they have also shown vulnerabilities.
Argentina looked like they would outright lose at times. It looked that way when they were being outplayed for most of the game against Iran, and it again looked that way for much of the match against Switzerland. Argentina is one of the best nations at this sport, and with the tournament being held so close to their home, they were among the strong favorites to do very well. But they have hardly looked like they have shown their full potential. That said, they have played impressively at times, and you get the sense that they have yet to play their best football, and I have a feeling that we might see it today.
As for Belgium, it's very much the same story. They fell behind against Algeria, and needed a couple of goals late in that contest to save them, lifting them to victory. But they hardly looked dominant against either Russia or South Korea. And while they probably outplayed the US throughout the 90 minutes of regulation, and were seemingly whipping them early in the extra session, they wound up giving up a goal and allowing the US back into the contest, and then hung on for dear life to preserve their victory. At times, they looked like a boxer on the ropes, struggling not to get knocked out.
So, I think that Argentina, the pretty solid favorites in this contest, will pull off a win, and they likely will not need extra time to do it, either.
My prediction: Argentina
Costa Rica versus Netherlands
The final match this weekend will feature the two teams that, it can be argued, have been the Cinderella stories of this tournament so far (as well as Colombia, potentially).
Netherlands, of course, is a perennial powerhouse in this sport, and has reached the final match several times, although they have never yet won one. And Costa Rica, that tiny and often overlooked nation in Central America, have suddenly played very big in this World Cup!
So, this is definitely an intriguing match!
Netherlands has an explosive offense, the highest scoring offense of anyone in this World Cup so far. They have scored a whopping 12 goals, and allowed 4. They famously absolutely dismantled defending champion Spain in their opened, and then surprisingly struggled against Australia in their second match. But they won solidly against Chile to clinch their group, and qualify for the elimination round. It looked like they were bound to get eliminated for most of the match against Mexico, until they got a very late, and well-earned, goal in the 88th minute. And then, they got extremely lucky when rewarded a penalty kick (not earned), and converted that to essentially clinch the win and advance.
Costa Rica, in the meantime, also made a habit of shocking some people, coming from behind to pull off a stunner against favored Uruguay in the opener, and then shocking Italy in their second game, 1-0! They only managed a tie against England, but they basically already had the group in hand by that point. In the elimination round, they struck first against Greece, but after a stupid penalty that earned them a red card, they had to stave off elimination against a determined Greek side, who feverishly tried to take advantage of being a man up. But Costa Rica held, and won the penalty shoot out to earn their right to be here playing this game now.
Netherlands are the heavy favorites, probably the biggest favorites of anyone this weekend. But that should not phase Costa Rica, since they have been underdogs all along.
I would love to say that I see Costa Rica winning and advancing, but this is going to be a very tough match for them. Netherlands can score some point (they are averaging three goals per game so far!), and if they allow Netherlands to score like that, it will be extremely difficult for them to keep up. Costa Rica has to find a way to slow Netherlands down. Even then, Netherlands has shown that they are capable of winning some tough, defensive battles.
So, I think Netherlands will win, ultimately. Costa Rica is enjoying an incredible run, and I would enjoy seeing them advance. But, if my job is to pick who I think is going to win, it's hard to go against Netherlands here.
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