I figured after yesterday's games that the trend this weekend was towards high scoring games. After all, when you have offensive, powerhouse teams, that will tend to happen.
Yet, this weekend's divisional round weekend was the highest scoring in history, which makes it sound pretty exciting right? After all, this is the age of offense. The rules are made to favor offenses, and this kind of a weekend will be the result, I guess. We did indeed get two instant classics, including one today, in Atlanta, where the Falcons held off the Seahawks - barely. But the true gem this weekend was the very first game played, between the Baltimore Ravens and the Denver Broncos.
So, let me review the two games today, and then I'll make predictions for next weekend's championship games. Given my stellar performance with predictions this weekend, where the only game I got right was the last one, as the Patriots did indeed dominate the Texans, I'm sure that you are hanging on the edge of your seat, waiting with bated breath, money in hand and itching to place your bets with the most feared bookies, for me to give my predictions.
Also, since I was listening to sports radio both days this weekend following the game (believe me, that is not something that I do everyday), there were some things that people mentioned that kind of bothered me. It was not the first time that I've heard these complaints, either. So, this seemed like a good opportunity to give my personal take on them.
Here goes....
Seattle Seahawks (11-5, 1-0 in playoffs) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
The Falcons entered this game with a monkey on their back, and they showed right away just how driven they were to get that monkey off their back. The first half completely belonged to them in every way, and they dominated every facet of the contest. Given the ferocious Seahawks comeback in the second half, perhaps the end result would have been entirely different had Seattle managed to do anything right in the first half. But alas...
Atlanta just played very well in the first half. It cannot be overstated how well they played. I know that people look at how Seattle came all the way back and almost won the game, even taking the lead with less than a minute left in the game.
Ultimately, despite overcoming that huge deficit to take the lead very late, let us remember that Seattle ultimately lost the game because they allowed that huge lead in the first place. There are a lot of what if's. What if they had not been embarrassed so badly in the first half, and showed signs of life a bit earlier? What if they had managed to get something on the scoreboard before halftime, instead of ending it in that debacle, where time ran out, and they couldn't even settle for a field goal? After all, had they gotten a field goal, and the rest of the game went exactly the way it did, then Atlanta would have had to go for the touchdown, and not the field goal, to win it. Big difference. Huge difference!
So, I reiterate that it cannot be understated, just how important the Falcon's complete and utter dominance in the first half ultimately proved to be. It won them the game.
Yet, that second half collapse has me worried about this team. It seemed, in fact, rather symbolic of the Atlanta Falcons themselves. They are a team that raced out to an incredible start this season, and in this game. Remember, they were unbeaten at 8-0? They still looked incredible at 11-1, and still, finishing 13-3 is pretty damn good.
But there are questions about this team, serious questions. And despite their finally getting that elusive first playoff victory, there are grounds for concern, because frankly, they showed a decided lack of killer instinct in this game. I don't believe that they were twenty points better than the Seahawks, yet there they were at halftime, with a very comfortable lead at the half. It was a three possession game. They held that twenty point lead in the fourth quarter, and lost it! Yes, they came back to win it, but it really makes you wonder about them, doesn't it? As nice as this win must feel for them, it is the reason that I am asking more questions about them than before. Most true contenders would have buried the other team for playing the way that Seattle played in the first half, and even through the first three quarters.
Still, Atlanta allowed them to stay in the game. So much so, that the Falcons themselves had to stage an improbable comeback to eke out a win> Say what you will, that's not a good sign, and it makes me nervous about them.
Houston Texans (12-4; 1-0 in playoffs) at New England Patriots (12-4)
The Patriots dominated this game more than the score would indicate. After obliterating and humiliating Houston in New England about one month ago, the Texans did make some adjustments, and this helped to keep this game closer than that dreadful Monday Night Football performance. Still, playing in New England, against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick? In January? With that offense, and a defense that, while it bends, usually does not break?
If you look at the statistics, you might be surprised to see how even this game seemed. They both racked up a lot of yards, both well over 400 yards overall. Houston had a slight edge in time of possession, and they both got 24 first downs. Penalties were not a deciding factor for either squad, although the Patriots actually had more. Turnovers were not the deciding factor, either. Perhaps the most glaring failure for Houston was in their third down conversions, which were atrocious. The Texans converted only 3 third downs on 14 attempts, while New England converted 6 third downs on 13 attempts.
Still, statistically, the Texans were hardly overwhelmed.
Matt Schaub completed 34 of 51 passes for 343 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was also picked off once. Arian Foster had 22 rushes for 90 yards and 1 touchdown. He also caught 7 passes for 63 yards and another touchdown. He has been the all purpose back all season for this team, and once again, proved the most valuable asset for the Texans on Sunday. But it was not enough.
The Patriots put up 41 points. Tom Brady completed 25 out of 40 attempts, as he racked up 344 yards and 3 touchdowns. Another very solid day for him.
All just a bit too much. And the Texans fell, predictably.
The statistics showed a close game, but the scoreboard showed something else entirely. It was like that throughout the game, where the Patriots were never seriously threatened. There never was a point when you felt that they were in serious jeopardy of losing.
Now, I know I shouldn't be saying "I told you so", but the Texans have collapsed each of the last two seasons, when they had the division well under lock both times, and were vying for playoff positioning - particularly, they were fighting for possible home field advantage, and a possible playoff bye during both years. And both years, they collapsed at the end of the year, losing three in a row to end the 2011 regular season. They had been 10-3, and ended up 10-6. it was good enough for the third seed, but that meant an extra playoff game, and no bye week to rest up. This season, they went from 11-1, and seemingly owning the number one seed, to finishing 12-4, and dropping all the way to the number three seed.
Houston in a solid team, don't get me wrong. Which is precisely why they need to find that consistency in the regular season, in order to get better playoff positioning. Yes, they beat Cincinnati last weekend, and a playoff win is always impressive, no matter what. But it makes me wonder if this Houston team could truly have won at home against an elite team. If this game against New England had been played in Houston, might the Texans have pulled it off?
I'm not sure, but let's be clear on this: they would have had a much better shot at it than they did today, at Foxboro.
For the Patriots, it's another (ho hum) home playoff win, earning them another trip to the AFC title game, for the second year in a row. They won it last year, against the Baltimore Ravens, and so this will be an interesting rematch.
Predictions
Drum roll, please...
The moment you all have been waiting for. My predictions. I made predictions for this weekend, but got only one game right. That's horrible!
Still, it's no crime, and usually, I am better than this (I swear!). So, let me not be too discouraged by clearly not seeing the trends for this weekend clearly enough, and at least explain my thinking more for this upcoming weekend.
Let's start with the early game, which will be the NFC Championship Game. Now, yes, I said yesterday that I hate the 49ers, and I meant it. But that does not mean I can't separate my feelings with reality. San Francisco's head coach, Jim Harbaugh, has really got this team well put together. They are a disciplined bunch, with a tough defense and an explosive offense. They usually manage to minimize their mistakes, and maximize the mistakes of their opponents. Plus, experience is on their side, as this is their second straight appearance in the NFC Championship Game.
Now, what are the advantages for Atlanta? Well, a big one would be home field. That was what they were fighting for all season, and there's a good reason for it. The Falcons are very dominant at home. In the last three or four seasons, you can count the number of losses that they have suffered in Atlanta on one hand. So, I'd say that is a big deal. If this game were in San Francisco, I wouldn't even think the Falcons could keep it close. But in Atlanta? The Falcons can definitely win this game, if they bring their A-game. Plus, as good as the 49ers have looked in San Francisco (6-1-1 in the regular season, and the big win yesterday in the playoffs), they hardly look nearly as good on the road, where they were 5-3. Not horrible, but certainly not unbeatable.
Now, all that said, I have learned my lesson. The 49ers completely dispatched the Packers - twice! - and they just look better. That is why I will predict them to get the victory over Atlanta next weekend.
As for the AFC, it will be a rematch of last year's AFC Championship. If you remember, the Ravens really should have won that game, but it was New England who ultimately represented the AFC in the Super Bowl.
This one is hard. I mean, you never really want to bet against the Patriots when they play in New England, and especially in January.
But the Ravens really seem to have found themselves in these playoffs. They are healthy, focused, and playing extremely well. They appear to have the emotional edge as well, what with the retirement of Ray Lewis. I think it's fair to say that they are peaking at the right time, and they just feel like the team of destiny.
So, this one can go either way. But I have to pick one, right? As hard as it is to go against the Pats in Foxboro, I think the Ravens are the team of destiny this year. They have beaten New England on the road in the playoffs (in 2009) and I think they will do it again, and avenge last season's bitter defeat.
Questions and Complaints About Peyton Manning
While listening to the radio after yesterday's epic game
All that said, it is important to note that the Broncos would not have even been in this game, let alone have home field advantage in it, without Peyton Manning there. Whatever people may say about him, he is an elite quarterback, and the gamble that John Elway took in obtaining Manning paid off quite well, thank you very much. The game was a great one, although it will be a bad memory, and is a bitter pill to swallow for this team. But it actually reminded me quite a bit of the 1996 Denver Broncos, who also went 13-3 and had the top seed in the AFC, only to lose their very first playoff game at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
I'm just saying that, although this is a hugely disappointing outcome for Broncos fans, I would not quite give up on Manning just yet.
That said, one point that was raised on the radio is worthy of being mentioned, and that was that, while statistically, Peyton Manning is perhaps the greatest quarterback in NFL history, he seems considerably less impressive when the discussion turns to the playoffs.
It is not a minor point, and remains a stain on his legacy. Quite simply, although he statistically surpasses almost every quarterback in every meaningful category, come the playoffs, he does not compare to some of the all-time greats. Joe Montana had more playoff wins, and was more impressive overall. So is his counterpart in New England, Tom Brady. They have the rings to prove it, as well.
And really, those are the guys that you compare Manning to. He is undeniably one of the greats, and so you have to compare him with the greats. And despite his dominance during the regular season, his performance during the postseason tends to be far more pedestrian.
Sorry, but there it is.
Still, that said, he is undeniably a great quarterback, and he does have a ring, as well as another Super Bowl appearance, to boot. It would not surprise me in the least if he did, in fact, lead Denver back to the Super Bowl someday, for the first time since 1998. He just might win another one, too! Just not this year.
Questions and Complaints About Tom Brady and the New England Patriots
You know, I have never heard so many people try to detract from the accomplishments of a great team as much as people tend to do with this New England Patriots squad. Frankly, I don't quite get it. Why do people hate this team so much?
Now, one of the arguments is that Tom Brady is not "truly" elite. He does not have the stats that Peyton Manning does. He is not Joe Montana, calmly leading his team to a come from behind win, grabbing victory from the jaws of defeat. He does not have the breathtaking highlights of a John Elway, or quite the athletic ability of some of the other very mobile quarterbacks.
But he does have the rings, and the Patriots have never won a Super Bowl without him. Plus, he has now led five teams to the Super Bowl, tying John Elway for the most times any quarterback has done that. He still has a chance to get them there again, to boot. He will be a Hall of Famer, and his status will be immortalized. There is nothing more that he has to prove.
As for the Patriots, one of the arguments was that they strongly benefit from a weak schedule, and that this has "always" been the case.
The truth of the matter is that you play who is on your schedule, and that is exactly what they have done. They went 12-4 this year, and beat Houston, twice. They beat Denver, and crushed Indianapolis. Those are all playoff teams. Plus, they have been there before. Last year, they played in a close Super Bowl, and almost won.
In fact, if the Giants had not managed to pull off two narrow, fourth quarter comebacks in the two Super Bowl showdowns, these Patriots would be 5-0 in Super Bowls, and would be viewed entirely differently. That would have included finishing a historical undefeated season.
But they lost. Twice, to the same team, in the biggest game of them all. So, they showed that they are mortal.
Should that really overshadow their incredible accomplishments? This team won three Super Bowls prior to those two losses, after all. Whether people like it or not, that's a fact.
Another criticism is that the Patriots did not win by a large margin. They did not obliterate opponents, particularly in the playoffs.
They beat some great teams along the way in order to do it, as well. They knocked out the Colts - twice. That team won a Super Bowl, and made it to another one. Plus, they were always a factor. New England also beat Pittsburgh in the playoffs - twice, and both times at Pittsburgh! The Steelers have been to the Super Bowl three times in recent years, and won it twice. Again, that should count for something. In the Super Bowl itself, the Pats beat the St. Louis Rams in a huge upset, slowing down "The Greatest Show on Turf". They also knocked off the Eagles, one of the most consistent and accomplished teams of the decade. What does it matter if they did not win by blowouts? They won. In the end, that's what people truly remember.
And winning is why this Patriots team will be remembered. Since 2001, no one has done it better. No one has even really come close.
So, like them or not, give the Patriots their due.
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