Super Bowl XLIX Preview

AFC Champions

New England Patriots 

v.

NFC Champions

Seattle Seahawks

Okay, so here goes! 

The Super Bowl match is now set. The Seattle Seahawks are returning to the Super Bowl for the second season in a row, and will try to defend their title from last year. No team has successfully won back-to-back Super Bowl championships in a decade, so Seattle is trying to make history. But in order to do it, they will have to get past the last team to have achieved that feat, as the New England Patriots now stand in their way. 

Originally, immediately following the Seahawks stunning, come from behind victory on Sunday, they were installed as slight favorites for the Super Bowl. But that changed some as the AFC title game between the Patriots and the Colts became more and more lopsided. As of right now, neither team is favored or the underdog, which is quite rare. I cannot recall the last time that was the case for a Super Bowl. 

Indeed, the Patriots put on a very impressive, and downright scary performance against the Indianapolis Colts. I usually admire the Colts, both for how good they are on the field, and how they traditionally conducted themselves off of it. However, they apparently complained about the balls being deflated for the AFC Championship Game, which is something that I cannot understand. Maybe it they lost in a close one. But when you lose as badly as they did, you might want to take the lesson and remain humbled. 

In any case, the Patriots absolutely crushed Indianapolis, while the Seahawks barely squeaked by the Packers, relying on a miracle finish that essentially carried them to the Super Bowl.

Based on that, you might expect the Patriots to be favored.

However, there are some things to consider. First of all, blowout wins in either the AFC or NFC Championship Games do not necessarily suggest victories in the Super Bowl against teams that won much closer games. In 1991, the Giants barely squeaked past San Francisco by two points, while Buffalo plowed through Oakland, 51-3. But the Bills lost that Super Bowl. 

Also, remember that the Patriots will not enjoy the home field advantage that they obviously enjoy at Foxboro, and they also will not be facing a defense with as many gaps as the one that they took apart on Sunday. The Seahawks have a dominant defense that is beginning to draw serious comparisons with the greatest defenses of all time. And if they looked more vulnerable than usual so far in these playoffs, they now have two weeks to recover and prepare for New England. 

If the Seahawks can shut down Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, a year after shutting down Peyton Manning in the big game, then you have to give them the accolades as at least one of the most dominant defenses ever. 

Of course, on many levels, this has been the strangest start to a Super Bowl match-up that I have ever seen. Since the two teams qualified to reach the big game, they have both been involved in some controversies (which I wrote about more in detail in previous posts). The Seahawks had a mishap with a post supposedly honoring MLK, but which seemed to equate football with the civil rights struggle. They took some heat for that, took the post down, and apologized.

In the case of the Patriots, however, it seems to be a far more complex and serious scandal that has more far reaching ramifications. I am talking about deflate gate, of course. Somehow, 11 of the 12 balls used during part of the AFC Championship Game did not meet NFL regulations, and the inquiry has been heated and caused serious controversy. Bill Belichick, rather uncharacteristically, simply passed the buck onto his quarterback, Tom Brady. Brady is denying knowing anything about it, although not everyone believes that. 

Yet, the Patriots handed the Colts their butts on Sunday. It was not like Indianapolis managed to keep it close. The scandal should mostly have gone away by now, I think, since the outcome was never in doubt. If the Colts had managed to keep the score close, maybe to within a score, or at least two, I could understand. But 45-7? Really? 

The Patriots left no doubt that they are the team that deserves to be here. Whether people like it or not (and clearly, some people do not), the fact is that they are here for very good reason. They were the best in the AFC, and not for the first time. This is their sixth Super Bowl appearance in a 14 year span! There is no other team in the NFL that ever managed to go to so many Super Bowls in such a short time span before. Hell, few teams have even been to the Super Bowl that many times in franchise history! Only the Cowboys and Steelers have been to the big game as many times as the Patriots (making a record-tying eight appearance), and only those teams and the Broncos (7) and 49ers (6) have been to the Super Bowl six or more times. That is elite company, and New England has been their six times in less than a decade and a half, under the same coach and quarterback (and owner - Robert Kraft). 

Yes, they belong here. And the controversy, I think, is overblown. People are harping on it because it is the New England Patriots, the team most love to hate, and so they are guilty by association. But that does not mean that their accomplishments, which are extensive, can be diminished, let alone taken away from them. They are a Super Bowl team this season, and they deserve to be here based on talent and execution, and not because of the weight of the official footballs being used during their games. Period, end of story. 

So, let's just get back to what is going to happen in the game itself.

The Patriots are not as dominant as they have been in past Super Bowls. Yet, they are here, and they look ready. Their offense is strong, and riding a high, having scored 80 points in their two playoff games, for an average of 40 points per game.

But those points certainly did not come against a defense as good as Seattle's. The Seahawks had some question marks regarding injured players but, as of right now, they are saying that everyone is ready to play the game, pretty much at full strength. One thing is for sure - if Richard Sherman is not completely recovered from his injury sustained during the NFC title game, I do not expect that New England will be as timid as Green Bay was in that regard. Look for the Patriots to test Sherman, and if they enjoy success with it, look for them to exploit that as fully as possible. 

Seattle's defense will be a tough contest for New England's offense. The big question, I think, will be how effectively the Seahawks can contain Rob Gronkowski. If they cannot, it will be a long day, and the Patriots will certainly have their chances. But if the Seahawks can contain New England's passing game, including Gronkowski, then the Patriots will have a much more difficult time trying to run the ball down Seattle's throats like they did against Indianapolis. 

As for Seattle's offense, they have the pounding running game of Marshawn Lynch, and the deadly quarterback qualities of Russell Wilson, who can kill you either with his arm or his legs. He has the uncanny ability to make something out of nothing, and so the question is how the Patriots defense will adjust. Can they contain Lynch, which few teams have been able to do? Will they get burned by Wilson, who can take to flight by running if nothing is open to him down the field? My suspicion is that New England will have some difficulties containing Wilson, and that Lynch will ultimately have some big moments in this game. Look for some big runs from him, especially later in the game, when New England's defense is apt to get tired.

Neither team has home field advantage, either, and so I do not expect for either team to look quite as dominant as they did towards the end of the season. 

My prediction?

Hey, I picked the Seahawks from before the season started (here is a link for that blog entry: 2014-15 NFL Season Predictions: Seahawks Repeat: http://charbor74.blogspot.com/2014/09/2014-15-nfl-season-predictions.html). In fact, so impressive was their Super Bowl season last year, that they were my pick to repeat as champions immediately following their crushing blowout victory over the Denver Broncos. And hey, why change that pick now that they have made it all the way back to the Super Bowl? I will stick with the team that looked like the best for the last two seasons, and have now reached a second straight Super Bowl, the first team to do it in a decade, since the New England Patriots, of all teams, did it in 2003 and 2004. I predict that the Seahawks will win their second straight championship, and that they emerge as a budding dynasty, as the challenge then shifts to keeping all of the pieces in place for another title run (or two).

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks Repeat as Super Bowl Champions!!!