Okay, it has been too long since the last time that I published one of these division previews. The NFL season is now well under way, and especially the AFC North, where the Bengals and Ravens both have already played two games. So, although it is still far too early to make any kind of definitive predictions about what will happen, we have got some glimpses of what might happen. That means it's time for me to finish another one of these, and finish the rest of them, as well.
So, here goes:
So, here goes:
Here are my predictions for the AFC North:
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (projected division winners) - The Steelers got off to a disappointing start, settling for a tie with the Browns, although they were leading 21-7 in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, Pittsburgh is the most talented team in this division, and has the most valuable experience, as well. Remember, before they were shocked by Jacksonville in the AFC divisional round, they were expected to reach a second straight AFC title game, and take another shot at the Patriots up in New England. This team has an explosive offense, one of the most talented and dangerous in the league. To compliment that, they have a pretty solid defense, as well, having kept opponents to 18 points or less nine times, going a perfect 9-0 in those games. Overall, they have a very good team, and can handle themselves pretty well in most games. They finished the regular season with a 13-3 record, tied with three other teams for the best record in the league. In fact, they suffered four losses total last season, with two of them being home losses to the Jaguars, with the last of these being particularly costly, coming in their one and only playoff game. But the Steelers are still the class of this division. Cincinnati is off to a hot start, but this team has owned them, having won the last seven meetings, and 10 of the last 11. The Ravens could potentially give them headaches, although Pittsburgh swept them last season, and has won the last three meetings. And despite the tie to the Browns, the next meeting is in Pittsburgh, and it is difficult to see Cleveland seriously challenging the Steelers for the division title, anyway. That means that they are the most obvious choice to win another AFC North
2. Cincinnati Bengals (projected second place team) - The Bengals are off to a terrific start. They won their first two games, are alone in first place in this division, and currently have the tiebreak advantage (for now) against the Ravens. However, the Bengals are a problematic pick to win the division, because they have been absolutely defined by their limitations in recent seasons. Sometimes, they have had very good regular season records, and have enjoyed some success. Hell, in 2015, they even won the division title. But regardless of what they seem to do in the regular season, there are a couple of obstacles that Cincy never seems to get past. Firstly, the Steelers absolutely own them. Maybe that will change, but right now, until the Bengals prove that they can get past Pittsburgh, you have to take their early success with a grain of salt. Also, even if they win the division title (which I am not predicting), they have gone longer than any other NFL team has in failing to win a single playoff game. Not even other serious basket cases in the league, like Cleveland ad Detroit, have gone as long as the Bengals have without winning one playoff contest. The last time that Cincinnati managed to win a playoff game was in the 1990-91 season. The Bengals had Boomer Esiason at quarterback, Ickey Woods at running back, and Sam Wyche was the coach. Joe Montana was still the starting QB for the 49ers, Phil Simms was the QB for the Giants, Elway was QB for the Broncos, and Dan Marino was the QB for Miami. The Seahawks were an AFC team, and the New England Patriots were the worst team in the league, and looked like a hopeless basket case. Nobody had heard of the Carolina Panthers, the Jacksonville Jaguars, or the Baltimore Ravens, and the Oilers were still Houston's NFL franchise. The Cowboys had just acquired a hot running back prospect named Emmitt Smith, and many expected them to be the team of the future. The Buffalo Bills were hot and well on their way to making their first ever Super Bowl appearance, and they would be favored. And the Bengals would lose to the Los Angeles Raiders the next weekend, ending Bo Jackson's career in the process. The first Gulf War was being fought, Gorbachev was still the leader of the Soviet Union, and the white minority apartheid government was still in power in South Africa, although they were negotiating an end to all of that. Yes, that was the world the last time that the Bengals won a playoff game, and you would have to be at least 27, and fast approaching at least 28 years old, to have even been born by that point. That was entirely too long ago to have won a single playoff game, and early success or not, Cincinnati has not shown that they are ready to win a playoff game just yet. Maybe if they beat Pittsburgh and continue this hot start, then I might be ready to consider this team a serious threat. Until then, though, I have to assume that no one on this Bengals team will even come close to achieving the kind of success that the Bengals enjoyed in the late eighties and early nineties.
3. Baltimore Ravens (projected third place) - The Ravens have some real talent on both sides of the ball, and I was tempted to pick them for second place. But they already lost to the Bengals a week after completely dismantling the Bills, and that kind of inconsistency has killed them in recent years. They still have a solid defense, having shut out three different opponents last season, and managing to allow 17 points or less in half of their games last season. In those eight games, they were undefeated. The problem was that they had some serious lapses in the other games, allowing 44 at home against the Jaguars, 39 at Pittsburgh, and 31 in the season finale against Cincinnati, in a game that meant everything to them, and which knocked them out of the playoffs. On the other side of the football, the offense can score some point, with Flacco providing veteran leadership at quarterback. They scored 27 points or more six times, although there were some games when the Ravens needed to score more points, and just could not find any kind of a rhythm, especially when it was most necessary. So, that kind of inconsistency, despite a fairly deep well of talent on many levels, kept the Ravens from where they really should have been, which is in the playoffs. After a disastrous 4-5 start, they got hot, winning fix of their next six games and controlled their own destiny. All they needed to do was beat the Bengals at home, a losing team with nothing to play for, and whom the Ravens had already beaten, 20-0, on the road. Instead, they suffered a humiliating, and very costly, home loss, and started their off-season far earlier than they should have. They have enough to be a factor, even potentially a legitimate contender, if everything goes perfectly for them. Yet, they have been too consistently inconsistent to dismiss this troubling trend, and that is why I have them as my third place pick within this division.
4. Cleveland Browns (projected last place) - The good news for the Browns is that there is nowhere to go but up. After the Browns reached the absolute pits last year, finishing with a rare winless season, they really cannot disappoint this season. Even one win (or one tie) is an improvement. Cleveland had a horrendous season last year. They had one of the worst defenses, as well as one of the worst offenses. They lost some close games, and they lost come blowouts. But the point is that in what has become a culture of losing in Cleveland, at least in the NFL, they outdid themselves last season with one of the worst seasons ever seen. They scored 234 points, less than any other team, and allowed 410 points, more than all but one team in the league. The worst part of it is, they had what had seemed like a historically poor season the year before, finishing 1-15. And that had followed a 3-13 season, which is also very poor, yet looks like a veritable feast of wins compared to the last two seasons. Combined, the Browns have produced a total of four wins in the last three seasons combined. Now, that's historically inept. I do not believe that has ever happened in NFL history before, and it certainly has not happened in recent NFL history. Clearly, they need to make changes, and quickly. With all of the high draft picks, the Browns should start to have some serious talent, sooner or later. How good will Baker Mayfield be at quarterback? The Browns added some talent on both sides of the football, but there are so many holes, that almost any move like that would be an improvement. This team will improve, even if it takes time. Already, with just one game done, the Browns have improved on what they did all of last season, snapping a 17-game losing streak. Someday, they will build a contender, a playoff team again. But that will take time, and it will not happen all at once. It is hard to expect a huge improvement for the Browns, and even three wins might be a tall order. That means that it is virtually impossible to predict anything but a last place finish for Cleveland for this upcoming season. Let's just hope they are building for a brighter future, though, because it would actually be nice to see this team begin to be competitive again.
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