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Here is my preview of the NFL Divisional Round games for this weekend:
Saturday Games:
Kansas City Chiefs 23 - Houston Texans 14
It seems that every time the Chiefs win, conspiracy theories abound (particularly on the internet) that the fix is in. That refs basically make every call in favor of the Chiefs, at least the ones that really matter. I am not sure that is true. In fact, I suspect that it is preposterous and more a case of sour grapes than grounded in reality. Still, there apparently were calls made against the Texans anytime they seemed to get near Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and some people feel it is getting excessive. Indeed, the Texans were called for double the amount of penalties as the Chiefs were yesterday.
Whether or not that is the case, there is one undeniable fact that makes this particular game unusual, and it is this: the Houston Texans outgained the Chiefs by over 100 yards and suffered no turnovers, but still lost the game. According to Ben Sollack (see the link to the Sports Illustrated article below), that is the first time in NFL playoff history that has happened. In the prior 49 games where teams had outgained their opponent by over 100 yards and committed no turnovers, those teams had a perfect 49-0 record.
Until yesterday, that is. That is because the Texans earned the dubious distinction of being the first such playoff team in NFL history to achieve those things, yet still ultimately losing the game.
Indeed, the Texans outgained the Chiefs in total yards by over 100 yards. The Texans produced 336 yards on offense, to just 212 for KC. They also held onto the ball longer than Kansas City, as Houston possessed the ball for over 33 minutes. Neither team had a turnover, which marked a rare occasion in postseason history (I believe that this is only the third time in NFL playoff history that it has happened).
So on some levels, the Texans did many of the things they set out to do. They moved the ball, and their defense enjoyed some success in limiting KC's productivity. Yet, the Chiefs have the experience factor on their side, and it is valuable. All year long, people seemed to be asking what was wrong with the offense? In fact, they often asked that last season, too. Why aren't they are explosive as they used to be, or perhaps even should be? Especially with all of that talent on their roster, it seems like they should produce more yards and score more points, right?
But the Chiefs took better advantage of their opportunities than did the Texans. When it mattered the most, KC converted those opportunities into point. Yes, the Texans were tough, and played well.
Ultimately, however, the Chiefs played just a little bit better, and earned the win. Not by much. But you don't need to win by a ton. You just need to win. And one way or the other, the Chiefs just keep on doing that.
Now, maybe the referees really did help Kansas City to win that game. I cannot say for sure, because admittedly, I did not watch this game.
What I will say, for those haters of the Kansas City Chiefs - and it seems like there are more and more of them with each passing year - is that the Chiefs appeared more vulnerable than I thought they were. Indeed, the Texans did not capitalize on their opportunities as much as they should have. They may not have had any turnovers, but they made mistakes, such as that missed extra point. Houston lost by nine, but that single point - and they would have managed to tie the game at the time when that extra point attempt was missed - might have played in a pretty big way psychologically for both teams.
Yes, the Chiefs won. But given how strong they looked this season (remember, they were 15-1 in games that mattered to them), I assumed that they would have largely pushed the Texans aside. In fact, I had assumed that this one would be over, for all intents and purposes, before the fourth quarter rolled around.
However, that was not how this one played out. The Chiefs got by the Texans. Nothing more, and nothing less. They earned the win, and it is impressive how they keep on winning. However, a better team, maybe the team that they face next weekend, might have capitalized on their opportunities better than did Houston. It feels to me like indeed, these Chiefs are not unbeatable. That is not to underestimate them, because they won a Super Bowl title last season while basically narrowly escaping in three consecutive games against the Bills, the Ravens, and the 49ers. So no one should underestimate them.
That said, this team also is not unbeatable. If this game showed anything, it is that the Chiefs may indeed be vulnerable this postseason.
My pick: Accurate
Texans Achieve Wild History in Playoff Loss to Chiefs by Matthew Schmidt, January 19, 2025:
The Houston Texans achieved a wild record in their Divisional Round playoff loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Houston Texans Achieve Wild History in Playoff Loss to Chiefs
https://www.si.com/nfl/texans/news/houston-texans-achieve-wild-history-loss-kansas-city-chiefs
Washington Commanders 45 - Detroit Lions 31
This game I actually watched most of, unlike the first game.
And I gotta say that maybe I am guilty of buying into the hype surrounding the Detroit Lions this season. They went 15-2 and earned the number one seed throughout the NFC playoffs as long as they survived. The 15 wins marked the most wins ever in a single season by the Lions. It was the best regular season that the Lions have had, at least in the Super Bowl era. They set franchise records for scoring. It seemed like they were rolling, like everything was falling into place. In short, it felt like they were likely going to win this one heading into it.
At least, that was what I thought.
But here's the thing: when the Lions scored a touchdown in the second quarter to briefly go up 14-10, I thought that this might mark the turning point of the game. From here on out, Detroit would likely dominate. Except that Washington scored a touchdown to take the lead back, and quickly. My girlfriend called me away for something (it seemed like a small emergency at the time, although as I write this, I cannot remember what it was). When I came back, just a few minutes later, Washington somehow was winning, 24-14.
That was the point when I began to suspect that the Lions might really lose this game.
Here's the thing: Detroit kind of surprised people with how well they played this season, considering the number and severity of injuries. That is particularly true for their defense.
In fairness, there was one exception. It came early in the second half. The Lions defense stopped the Commanders. Then, when the Lions got the ball back, they scored. It seemed like it was game on.
But Washington answered in kind, scoring and wrestling momentum back. From that point on, once again, the Lions just had no answers. It was like they were running a marathon, and simply ran out of gas. The Detroit defense in particular was vulnerable, and just could not keep Washington off the field, or out of the end zone when the chances came.
It seemed like yesterday, all of that caught up with them. They simply could not stop, or even really slow down, Washington's offense. Every time the Lions scored, it seemed that the Commanders had an answer. Time after time, when the Lions defense needed to come up big and make a big stop, Washington managed to either get a first down conversion or score. Before long, they began to run up the score.
True, Detroit has an explosive offense. They can move the ball down the field, and quickly. And they can score a lot of points. Indeed, the Lions produced 521 yards and 30 first downs, which compares favorably to Washington's 481 yards and 27 first downs. But Washington had a significant advantage in time of possession, holding onto the ball for just shy of 34 minutes.
Part of the problem for the Lions, obviously, were the turnovers. They turned the ball over five times. Jared Goff had himself a fantastic season (the past two seasons, actually, have been very good for him). But that did not show yesterday, when it seemed like he threw three interceptions and lost a fumble. Plus, Detroit wide receiver Jameson Williams throwing another INT at one point.
That's five turnovers, while the Commanders had none. To me, that tells the story right there. A mistake prone offense, and of course, a defense that just could not stop Washington's offense.
So the Lions are eliminated, and a dream season turned into a nightmare in the one and only playoff game that they play.
Meanwhile, Washington advances to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since the 1991 season. That's 33 years. They will wait to see who they play, and where they will travel to, when the winner of the Eagles-Rams game emerges.
My pick: Inaccurate
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