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Buffalo Bills (13-4, 2-0 postseason)
Buffalo Bills (15-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (16-2)
If the Chiefs are to extend their dynasty and make history in their pursuit of a three-peat, they will have to do so by getting past what I believe to be their toughest challenge this season. They will need to get past the one and only team so far this season which managed to best them: the Buffalo Bills.
I know, I know, the Bills lost each of the three previous postseason meetings between these two teams. That includes last season's heartbreaking "wide right 2" game up in Buffalo. If the Bills could not beat the Chiefs last year up in Orchard Park, why would they be able to do it this time around at Arrowhead Stadium?
Well, the Bills look like a different team this year. It feels like they have more than exceeded expectations so far this season. And after a bumpy start to the season, during which they got absolutely blown out by the Ravens in Baltimore and then suffered another loss to the Texans at Houston, this team turned it up a few notches. They pulled off seven straight wins, and lost only one meaningful game to them since. That means that they have won 10 of their last 11 games since those two straight losses, and that includes two postseason wins. First, a blowout win over the Broncos, and then surviving a tough one against the Ravens.
Now, the Bills are in the AFC Championship Game for only the second time since the 1990's, and also for the first time since the 2020 season. They know only too well that these opportunities come only rarely. And it feels like this particular Bills team, which was written off by most in the offseason, feels determined to prove that they are better than everyone thinks. They were underdogs at home for last week's game, even though they had sported a 9-0 home record. But they beat the Ravens. They go into this AFC title game having won all but one of every meaningful game since early October, and they know that they have managed to get more wins against this Chiefs team since the KC dynasty started with the 2019 Super Bowl title.
The one thing that remains for this Bills team to prove is that they can get past the Chiefs in a postseason meeting between the two teams.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs look more vulnerable than they have in a long time. They beat the Texans last week, true enough. And they have not obliterated teams this season, but just generally did enough to win most of the time. So they are hardly a dominant and overwhelming kind of a team.
Yet, they get the job done far too consistently to dismiss.
Also, they very well may have the mental edge, based on the history - particularly in the playoffs - which these two teams share. The Chiefs beat the Bills in the AFC Championship in 2020, then won under seemingly impossible circumstances in the "13 seconds" game. Last year, they outplayed the Bills for most of the game up at Orchard Park, and iced the win when a field goal attempt to tie it became "wide right 22."
Of course, the Chiefs also have that championship swagger. And I fully expect for Mahomes to make some magic at times, and for Kelce to come up with some solid plays. Andy Reid will have this team prepared, and they will have their opportunities.
Still, it feels like KC is more vulnerable than they have been, and the Bills feel like they are surging at the right time. The Bills know the value of this AFC title game appearance. And I expect Josh Allen to come up with some magic, as well. All in all, I believe that the Bills will pull off a stunning upset in a game that very well might come down to the final play, and finally shed that moniker of losers. The win I expect them to get here might qualify as the biggest in franchise history, and will set them up to play in the Super Bowl for the first time in over thirty years, which a chance to finally bring the Lombardi Trophy home.
My pick: Buffalo
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