Monday, April 14, 2014

The Challenges For Putin & Russia With Unrest in Ukraine

Well, this may be an encouraging sign!

Around 10,000 protestors gathered in Moscow yesterday to protest what they consider to be unfair news coverage of the Ukrainian crisis, particularly of the tone that the pro-western government in Kiev is a "fascist junta" and generally anti-Russian in tone.

Andrei Zubov, a history professor who was fired last month for his criticism of Russia's actions, going so far as to compare Russia's annexation of Crimea to the Anschluss of Austria by Nazi Germany just prior to World War II. He claims that Putin and the other prominent Russian leaders pushing for this return of parts of eastern Ukraine to Russia has put Russia on the edge of "an abyss."

In the meantime, Putin has to also play it relatively safe, with the election in Ukraine now upcoming, and the stakes very high. Since Russia's annexation of Crimea, Putin has risen in popularity to the highest numbers he has ever enjoyed, and he needs to continue to look decisive and strong, while also not doing so much towards Western, and Ukrainian, governments that it winds up hurting Russia in the end with ever mounting sanctions.

According to his article, "Crimea won, Putin tries not to lose Ukraine", Timothy Heritage (of The Associated Press) reports:

"Reclaiming Crimea 60 years after it was gifted to Ukraine by Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, apparently on a whim, has been a domestic triumph for Putin. But losing the ability to exert influence over Ukraine would be a high price to pay for that and might, with time, seriously detract from the achievement."

Yes, Putin is riding a wave of popularity, even gaining the support for former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev. Putin's speech last month about bringing parts of the former Soviet Union back under Moscow's wing was met with general enthusiasm and support across Russia.

"But business and political sources say there is growing unease beneath the surface as the euphoria fades and the harsh reality sets in of Western sanctions - and the prospect of more if Russia does not cooperate with the West."

Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has worked hard to build strong relations, and break out of the isolation it had suffered under during the Soviet days. But the recent tensions from the political turmoil in Ukraine, and Russia's annexation of Crimea in particular, threaten to once again widen the gap in communications and relations between Russia and the West.

With the upcoming election in Ukraine set for May, Putin and other Russian leaders are worried about a backlash of popular sentiment in the country against Russia, after it took Crimea away from Ukraine.

Of course, Ukrainians themselves know that they need Russia, and cannot sustain long term tensions with Russia, since they rely so heavily on so many of the natural resources from that country - particularly oil. This is a matter that concerns western Europe, as well, since much of their oil not only comes from Russia, but it travels through Ukraine along the way to the rest of Europe. It has apparently been the reason that Europe's response has been as muted as it has so far.

It will be interesting to see how this delicate, yet tense, situation is handled by both sides.






These are the article that I used to complete this particular blog entry:

"Anti-Kremlin protest draws thousands in Moscow" by The Associated Press, April 13, 2014:

http://news.yahoo.com/anti-kremlin-protest-draws-thousands-moscow-160257721.html




"Crimea won, Putin tries not to lose Ukraine" by Timothy Heritage of The Associated Press, April 13, 2014:

http://news.yahoo.com/crimea-won-putin-tries-not-lose-ukraine-093107657.html

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