Super Bowl LII - Sunday, Feb. 4, 2018
Super Bowl LII
Phildelphia Eagles (15-3) versus New England Patriots (15-3)
Philadelphia Eagles
vs.
New England Patriots
Well, its just about here! The 52nd Super Bowl.
These two franchises have met in the big game before, although this could not accurately be described as a rematch or anything. That's because these two teams met thirteen years ago, for Super Bowl XXXIX, back in January of 2005.
Still, we can recap that game very briefly, since a few guys on the Patriots actually were here for that. That includes owner Robert Kraft, head coach Bill Belichick, and quarterback Tom Brady. Just like this time, the Pats had won two of the prior three Super Bowls, and were aiming for their third title in four seasons. The Eagles also were a model of excellence and consistency entering that game, having been to the NFC Championship four years in a row, before finally winning it against Atlanta that season. The Pats were favored, but it wound up being quite a close game, as all of the Super Bowls in the Brady/Belichick era have been for New England.
But the Pats wound up winning. The Eagles had their chances. Allegedly, Donovan McNabb was very nervous. I have heard some people suggest that he looked visibly scared, and some of his teammates even suggested that he threw up on the playing field, although McNabb himself denies this.
However, the fact remains that the Eagles probably could have won, but they made just a few too many mistakes, and fell just short. New England wound up edging Philly, 24-21, and indeed earned their third title in four years.
The Eagles were nervous for that Super Bowl. They were a team used to winning, but they lost that Super Bowl to a team with far more experience at winning at such a high level. The Eagles arguably played their worst game in their biggest moment, and it cost them a chance at winning their first Super Bowl title.
Philadelphia has been to two Super Bowls previously in franchise history. There was the one that I just described in 2005, but they also enjoyed a hugely successful 1980 season, finishing the regular season with a stellar 12-4 record, then marching through the playoffs en route to the team’s first ever Super Bowl appearance. The Raiders jumped out to an early 14-0 lead behind two touchdown passes from Jim Plunkett, and they went on to win convincingly, 27-10. The Eagles were favored heading in, but they seemed to get derailed by the Raiders hot early start, and so Philly never recovered.
New England, by contrast, has probably more Super Bowl experience than any team has had in decades entering this game. They have won two of the last three Super Bowls, and are going for number three this Sunday. This team won the AFC to qualify for a record 10th Super Bowl in franchise history, and the great bulk of those were under their present coach and quarterback, who have each been here for eight Super Bowls. They have won five of the previous seven, already a record in both regards, and will be looking for a sixth overall championship ring with a win this Sunday. The Eagles may have had the hottest offense in the league this year, and their defense is stellar. But the reason that the Patriots are favored is because they have, far and away, the most experience of any NFL team in these kinds of games. They might have the most experience at this level of any team in league history. That is not a minor advantage, and has to be seriously considered when analyzing this game, because it was that experience that allowed them to stay cool when they found themselves down by 10 points against the best defense in the league three years ago, and got them to pull off a tremendous come-from behind win. And, of course, it was that experience that allowed them to overcome that huge 28-3 deficit last year, and pull off that remarkable, historical comeback. Indeed, New England won those two championships with what are, far and away, the two greatest second half comeback in Super Bowl history. No other team has ever come back from double digit deficits to win the championship in the Super Bowl era. The Pats have done it twice in the prior three Super Bowls. That’s how valuable experience can be.
Of course, not every team with superior Super Bowl experience manages to win. Famously, the Vikings never won Super Bowls, despite having the advantage over both the Steelers and the Raiders in the 1970’s. The Bills certainly had superior experience to the Dallas Cowboys when they met in XXVII, but the Cowboys pummeled them. The Packers lost to the Broncos in XXXII, despite better experience and their status as favorites and defending champs. The Rams lost to the Patriots in XXXVI. The Packers beat the Steelers in XLV. And, of course, the Patriots had more experience than the Giants did ten years ago, during their undefeated season, as they appeared in their fourth Super Bowl in seven years, although the Giants won.
Eagles fans can take heart with that last one, but that is pretty much one of the very few examples that they can take true solace in, because the vast majority of the other times involved teams with a well-known inability to win the big game. In almost every other case, the team with the better experience in the big game won, with one of the few exceptions being the Brady and Belichick Patriots.. The Packers beat the Raiders in II. The Colts beat the Cowboys in V, but Dallas beat Miami in VI. Miami won the next two. Dallas also beat Denver in XII, and Pittsburgh beat the L.A. Rams in XIV. The Raiders beat the Eagles in XV, as already mentioned. San Francisco defeated Miami in XIX, Cincinnati in XXIII, and Denver in XXIV, as well as San Diego years later in XXIX. Dallas beat Buffalo in XXVIII, and Pittsburgh in XXX. Denver crushed Atlanta in XXXIII. New England beat Carolina in XXXVIII, Philadelphia in XXXIX, and Atlanta last year. Pittsburgh beat Arizona in XLIII. Denver knocked out the favored Carolina Panthers by doing relying on a very physical defense to batter and wear down the explosive Panthers.
Yes, the Eagles can win. But they are fighting history, as well as a very, very tough New England Patriots team, that despite problems, controversies, and injuries, still managed to make it this far in pursuit of their title defense. The Patriots have the superior experience, and they have a very explosive, dangerous offense. They have a tough, underrated defense, and they have a very crafty, brilliant coach and a quarterback with some of the most impressive credentials in sports history. That is a lot to overcome, and that is why I cannot predict against the New England Patriots winning another title, which is what I predicted before the season even began. Maybe I will be proven wrong, but until then, it just felt like destiny, ever since they completed that epic comeback to beat the Falcons in last year’s Super Bowl, which may have been the greatest ever.
So come Sunday, do not be surprised if Kraft, Belichick and Brady – and the rest of the New England Patriots, of course, hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy for a sixth time overall.
The most obvious advantage that I see goes to New England, and that would be experience. The Patriots have been here before, plenty of times. The quarterback, the head coach, and the owner have each been here eight times together, dating back to the 2001-02 season (New England’s first Super Bowl title). Since then, the Patriots have not gone longer than four seasons without at least making an appearance in the big game. They have not won every time, but they have won far more often than they have lost, and they only lost to one team, albeit twice – the New York Giants.
The Philadelphia Eagles are new at this. Yes, they enjoyed a tremendously successful season, tying three other franchises with the best overall regular season record this year, at 13-3. They earned the top seed in the NFC, and then beat last year’s NFC champions, the Falcons, before picking apart and dismantling the Vikings in the NFC title game. They have an awesome defense, and their offense was on fire against Minnesota. They have decent special teams as well, and that means that they certainly have a chance.
However, Belichick is not considered a genius for no reason. Usually, he finds ways to get the job done. He has faced some of the toughest offense in league history, such as the “Greatest Show on Turf,” and last year’s Falcons, and prevailed. They also took on some tough defenses, like the Jaguars in the AFC Championship, or Seattle’s “Legion of Boom” in the Super Bowl a few years ago, and won. They were down by 10 points against the Seahawks legendary defense, and Tom Brady pulled through, whole Belichick’s schemes shit out Seattle’s dangerous offense in the final quarter. And of course, who could forget last year, when the Pats fell behind 28-3, only to come storming back with a vehemence rarely seen before, ultimately pulling off the biggest come from behind win in Super Bowl history. They do whatever they need to do. They do not usually win by much in the big game. In fact, each of the prior seven Super Bowls during the Kratch/Belichick/Brady era have been decided by a touchdown or less, win or lose. But this team knows how to stay in a game for 60 minutes, and they usually wind up on top. Again, they know what it takes to win.
Philadelphia does present some tough challenges, though. They have the kind of tough, physical defense that can get to Brady, and New England usually has a tougher time than usual in those situations. In this game, surely, they are the team with the better defense, at least entering. Philly’s offense is a lot less predictable, though. Maybe the unit that sliced up Minnesota’s highly rated defense will be there, and the Patriots defense will then be scrambling to keep up. Or, maybe the pedestrian output in the weeks preceding that game, ever since Carson Wentz went down with a season ending injury, will show up instead. It was that low-scoring offense that scared many of the experts, and had many placing Philly as underdogs in both of their home playoff games. Fair or not, it might be a concern for the Eagles, especially if the Patriots find their rhythm early and often. Can the Eagles keep up if this turns into some kind of a shootout?
New England’s own defense can be underrated. It might not statistically be the elite defense of the league, yet it usually does enough – often more than enough – to get the job done. Again, though, Philly’s offense is inconsistent and unpredictable, and thus, we will see how things pan out. My guess is that the Patriots defense is up to the task of slowing the Eagles down enough to give their own team’s offensive production a chance to stand up, to win the game.
It is hard to argue against the Patriots vastly superior experience, and not think of it as possibly a determining factor. Despite the fact that these two franchises have met in the Super Bowl before, these Eagles are band spanking new to the big dance, and that might affect them. New teams often do show nervousness, and are prone to making mistakes. Sometimes, it can be costly, even deadly.
Bottom line, I think experience has helped New England before, and it will help them again. This Sunday, I predict that the Patriots will win a record-tying sixth Super Bowl title, although it will remain a close game.
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