The State of the NFL: Black Monday & Playoff Predictions

Black Monday

The first coach to be fired, Cleveland's Rob Chudzinski, actually came before Black Monday, in fact. It was Sunday, just after the Browns had lost to the Steelers. The Browns had been looking like arguably the worst team in the league at 0-2, and having just released a promising running back. Then, they won three games in a row to move to a first place tie in the AFC North, and suddenly, it looked like a surprise run was possible.

But after that, things fell apart again for the Cleveland Browns, and with the resurgence of the Pittsburgh Steelers after a horrendous 0-4 start, the Browns found themselves, once again, the cellar dwellers.

Admittedly, this is a tough division, with the defending Super Bowl champions in Baltimore, a perennial contender and recent Super Bowl participants in Pittsburgh, and a team that has become a consistent winner these last few seasons in Cincinnati. Still, the Browns really do have more talent than what they have shown, and so they need to produce better results.

But Cleveland was only the first.

Schwartz was fired from the head job in Detroit on Monday, after his Lions fluttered down the stretch, and squandered holding all the cards after a huge victory on Thanksgiving against the Green Bay Packers, at a point that seemed to essentially knock the Pack out of contention. Yet, only a few weeks later, really, and the Lions were not even in contention for the division title in the final week of the regular season, as they ended the season with three straight losses. After yet another disappointing season that fell short of expectations in Detroit, Schwartz is out.

Schiano is gone from Tampa Bay, after an experiment gone wrong, for the most part. For a while, he seemed to have the team heading in the right direction, even if it was controversial, at times, like when his defenders played a victory formation very aggressively last season. The Bucs were supposed to be a serious contender with a vastly improved defense this year, but then got off to a disastrous 0-8 start, and never fully recovered. Schiano had enjoyed some strong success with the Rutgers football program. But his approach did not translate well in the NFL apparently. At least not in Tampa Bay.

Leslie Frazier was fired from the head job in Minnesota, following a terrible turn of fortunes there. The Vikings looked to be a team on the rise, with a ton of talent on offense, and enthusiasm for a bright future. But Minnesota's season just never got off the ground after a terrible start. They lost some close games, granted. But they lost early, and then often. At times, they showed glimpses of the team that had gone to the playoffs last season with an offense that looked like an emerging elite unit. But all in all, the season fell far short of expectations, and so Frazier is gone.

Finally, Mike Shanahan was fired in Washington. Last year, they were division champions. This year, they suffered through a long and embarrassing fall from grace, with the seemingly impossible coming true: RG3 was benched. Washington followed that division championship season with a 3-13 season this year, and Shanahan, a coach who won two consecutive Super Bowls with the Denver Broncos in the 1990's, now finds himself without a job.



Wildcard Weekend Predictions


Saturday, January 4, 2013:

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts - Have to admit, I just don't have much faith in the Chiefs. Yes, they were impressive this year, and certainly especially in comparison to last year, when they finished 2-14. Even though the Chiefs made a lot of noise with 9-0 start, it's the 2-5 end that I am looking at. It's one thing piling up the wins against losing teams, but quite another how you react when you begin to play the real contenders. And the Chiefs, in those final seven games, got swept by both the Broncos and the Chargers, which accounted for four of the losses. The fifth? It was against none other than the Indianapolis Colts, this week's opponents. And that was in Kansas City! I just don't see them faring any better at Indy, and so the Colts should take this one fairly easily.



New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles - This is a much more unpredictable match-up, and I could see either team winning this one. The Eagles are on fire, having won seven of their last eight to take the division title. In the meantime, the Saints are going in the opposite direction. They started off 5-0, and looking like one of the true elites. But since then, they have been 6-5. Granted, they had a tough schedule during that period, with games at New England, at Seattle, and at Carolina (as well as a home win against Carolina, it should be noted). They obviously have a strong offense, behind the veteran leadership of Drew Brees. But I don't like the way that they seem to be running out of gas when it matters the most. They have the talent to get past Philadelphia, but the Eagles have all the momentum going into this one, plus home field advantage. Plus, they are pretty loaded on offense as well, and that is why they will be my pick to knock off the Saints this weekend.


Sunday, January 5, 2014

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals - This one will be particularly enjoyable to me, because these two teams met in the playoffs the first time that I ever got into football. It was one of the coldest days in NFL history for that contest, and the Bengals won it to qualify for their first ever Super Bowl. The Chargers are red hot, and extremely dangerous right now. Everything worked out just so this past weekend  But these Bengals are different, tougher, than they have been in a long, long while. They have Dalton, playing better than he has ever played. They also won five of their last six games, and were undefeated at home. This is the most successful regular season that they have enjoyed since their 1988 Super Bowl season, but to secure that distinction and make it truly meaningful, they need to win a playoff game, which would be the first time since the 1990-91 season. I think that they are on fire, though, and I see that 8-0 home record, and the talent, and how everything is clicking, and I just don't see any reason why they shouldn't win this one.


San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers - I really hate the 49ers, admittedly. I bet against them a few times this season, and think I got burned each time (not sure, though). They are 12-4, and seem to own Green Bay these last few seasons. They are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, where they stack up well against the Pack. Plus, the Packers are a mere 8-7-1. Everything would seem to favor the 49ers, and that is why I am picking them, however much I hate to do so. That said, the Packers might have a better chance to win this particular contest against San Francisco for a few factors. First of all, they have Aaron Rodgers back, and he seemed to be in pretty good form last weekend. He should be fairly well rested, to say the least. The Packers also have one major advantage: home field. Yes, the 49ers have a winning streak against the Pack at the moment, and even beat the Packers in Green Bay in the 2012 season opener. But that was in September, and this is going to be played at Lambeau in January. I will predict the 49ers to win, but admittedly, I hope I'm wrong!


Finally, it looks like one of Peyton Manning's two all-time records that he set this past Sunday might be taken away from him. The most important record was the touchdown passes thrown in one season, with 55. But the other one was the most yards passed for in a single season, in which he beat Drew Brees by one single yard with a seven yard completion. But apparently, the league might just rule that that play was, in fact, a lateral, which would not qualify as a forward pass, and thus would preserve Brees's old record.

It will detract little, if at all, from Manning's season, since he was only the second man to have thrown for 50 or more touchdown passes in a single season, and the Broncos as a team were the first team in NFL history to have scored over 600 points. The most passing yards in history would be the icing on the cake for the regular season, but obviously, they want the icing on the cake to be that Super Bowl ring.

Still, it is an interesting story. Read more here:


"Peyton Manning mark under review" by Jeff Legwold | ESPN.com, Updated: December 30, 2013:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2013/story/_/id/10217919/peyton-manning-denver-broncos-lose-passing-yards-record