Well, last season was quite interesting. And since many things occurred last season to kind of throw things out of whack a bit, it makes this season a bit harder to predict. Did the Saints just have a bad season, or have they dropped off the elite teams list? We could ask the same question for the Giants, as well. Also, for the Steelers. And the Super Bowl champion Ravens, how badly will their offseason losses impact their 2013 season? Talking about bad offseasons, can the Patriots rebound from a very bad offseason, or will they look pedestrian for once this coming season? The 49ers came close each of the last two seasons, so are they ready to take that next leap? Will the Seahawks truly compete with the 49ers for NFC West supremacy, and is it possible that they will make a title run? How about the Packers? Just about a year and a half ago, they were the defending Super Bowl champions, and owned a league best 15-1 record, good for the number one seed in the NFC. A lot of people thought that they would repeat as champions. But they lost to the Giants, and then lost both crucial meetings to the 49ers last season. Do they just need a tweaking, or have the dropped off out of the elites as well? What happened to the Broncos in the playoffs, after a brilliant regular season, and can they put it all together this season? Are the Colts for real, or was last season beginner's luck for a young and upcoming quarterback who still has to pay his dues? Will there be a team, or two, in the near future in Los Angeles (although not in time for the 2013 season)?
Those, and plenty of other intriguing questions will begin to be answered in the upcoming weeks, as the preseason begins, and teams prepare for the regular season, which really is not far away now.
Like any season, there are favorite for the upcoming season. Some of them are the usual suspects: the Broncos, the 49ers, the Packers, all have to be considered serious contenders, at the very least. The Seahawks looked very strong, particularly towards the end of last season, and suddenly, talk of a title there is not so laughable as it might once have seemed.
It's hard to imagine some teams that traditionally are strong contenders, but probably won't be this year. The glaring example would be the Patriots, because it is just hard to imagine them recovering from such a horrific offseason to seriously compete for a title. Not impossible, and if they do go to the Super Bowl or win it, you would have to give them all the credit in the world. But somehow, I just don't see it happening. Ditto with another traditional powerhouse in the league in recent years, the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Let me start the review with two divisions in the AFC:
AFC East
New England Patriots - Yes, they took a beating in the offseason, and it would appear unlikely that they will make it to a third consecutive AFC Championship Game, or finish with a record of 13-3 or better (they have averaged a regular season record of 13-3 over the last three seasons, the best average of any team during that period). But it seems likely that they will drop off a bit this season. That said, don't expect a total disaster, because this is still the Patriots, with Belichik and Brady. They have weathered plenty of storms before, and will likely do so again this season. It's also hard to imagine any of those other AFC East competitors having a great season and overtaking the Pats at the AFC best, although certainly not impossible. But I think New England is good enough to hang onto supremacy in this division, although that is the only dominance that the Pats display. Look for them to host a wild card game, but not to go too far in the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins - of all the other three teams in this division that could contend with New England for the division, I take the Dolphins the most seriously. They have their share of problems, to be sure. But this is a team that seems to be on the brink of putting it all together, and if they play their cards right, and perhaps especially if the Patriots truly do wind up struggling, the Dolphins might just have what it takes to reign supreme once again in the AFC East. New uniforms and logos, new results? We'll see.
New York Jets - Not long ago, the Jets seemed to be right up there with the New England Patriots, a perennial playoff contender and even serious candidate for the Super Bowl. They won four road games in the playoffs in two consecutive seasons, en route to two consecutive AFC Championship Game appearances. But those feel like distant memories, after two lousy seasons in a row. Sanchez, who hardly looked like a great quarterback during those AFC playoff runs, now looks like he ranks closer to the worst of the professional starting quarterbacks in the league. The Jets running game, once very strong, has not been a very effective weapon. And the defense has seemed weak and inconsistent, and have gotten burned badly against some opponents. Could they challenge the Pats for the division this year? Not likely. Same old Jets.
Buffalo Bills - Last season at this point, the Bills were supposed to have retooled enough to give New England a serious run for the money. They had a new defense, and a new team, in effect. Their uniforms look great, and all seemed a go. Then, the preseason showed some vulnerabilities that needed to be straightened out in a hurry. But instead, the regular season rushed forward, and the Bills, perhap predictably, fell behind. They were far from the surprise team to assume command in this division. In fact, they never got off the ground, en route to a poor overall showing. With little to indicate that they have corrected these wrongs, it is hard to imagine Buffalo being very competitive this season.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers - True, they still have many of the players that got them to the Super Bowl still on the roster. Since the Patriots run of three titles in four years, the Steelers and the Giants are the only two teams that have won multiple Super Bowls, and Pittsburgh almost won it for a third time just two years ago. They are not a radically different team now than they were then. They were 12-4 in 2011, and despite a very disappointing 2012 season, still managed to finish with a winning record of 9-7. In other words, they were legitimate contenders to qualify for the playoffs, but fell just short. Yet, despite all of this, it is not only difficult to picture them making a serious title run, but I would hesitate to put money on them even qualifying for the playoffs. They have to remain healthy and focused, and probably need to rely on a drop off by either the Bengals and/or the Ravens to have a serious chance at a division title. If one or both of them have a bad season, that could very well open some doors for the Steelers. Failing that, however, it is difficult to see a successful season for the Steelers. They did not have an active offseason, and return to the field with more or less the same lineup that got them to that 9-7 mark last year, and that is simply not likely to be good enough this season.
Baltimore Ravens - They won the Super Bowl last year. That's the good news. The bad news? Defending a title successfully has traditionally been far more difficult. Also adding to the bad news, the Ravens lost some of their key players, particularly two defensive institutions in Baltimore: Reed and Lewis. So, they are a different team, and most people are not predicting them to repeat. That said, the Ravens played much of the season without Ray Lewis already last season, so it is not that much of an adjustment. The loss of Reed will hurt, but the Ravens are not going to go from one of the elite defenses, to one of the weakest, or anything like that. They should be good defensively, and their offense, which looked downright explosive towards the end of last season, should be more or less in a good place, as well. I think the Ravens can make a run for another division title, or at least a playoff spot, provided they stay focused and healthy. But I wouldn't expect a repeat championship performance.
Cincinnati Bengals - This is a hard team to figure out. They have been good, but far from great, as of late. They have not made tons of moves to dramatically improve their lot, nor have they lost tons to go the other way. More or less, it depends on whether this team has grown up and matured. This is a team in a brutal division, with the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens there, and another team that has tasted the Super Bowl recently in the Steelers. Plus, the Browns seem to be improving. But if the Bengals maintain the steady improvement, and if they can take advantage of the declining fortunes of the Ravens and the Steelers, this could be a division winning team. If they hope to advance in the playoffs, they probably really need home field, too. Also, they need to avoid playing the Texans.
Cleveland Browns - They have been a consistently losing team for some time now, and everyone has gotten used to them being a loser. Yet, this is a team that has a tough defense, and a new owner that at least appears committed to winning. True, it did not translate to far better play last season, but there are signs that a turnaround may be nearing. One of the main problems is that the Browns play in one of the toughest divisions (if not the toughest) in football, which makes things very hard. I think the key is for them to start winning some games against division opponents, both to get more wins, and prevent those other teams from pulling away. If they can do that, this is a team that should be on the rise.
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