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Okay, so here we are. Super Bowl weekend. The winter equivalent of the fourth of July, according to some people. A time when friends and family get together to watch the biggest single game of the year, and when a lot of food - not especially healthy food - will be consumed. My favorite for this time of the year would be buffalo wings, and enjoying a couple of root beer floats with my son, both of which are traditions going back a number of years.
We just finished one of the most unusual and unpredictable seasons in NFL history, if not sports history, and I am not even mentioning the results on the field. This was a season that some were not entirely sure could or would take place. Then, there were some teams who were greatly affected. The Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans saw games postponed because they have Covid-19 cases. The San Francisco 49ers played in a county where playing football was effectively banned because of Covid-19. And there was a feeling of uncertainty, and even of unfairness. Again, it was a strange season.
Yet, in the end, here we are, with the final two in the Super Bowl. On the one hand, one of these teams, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, could probably be viewed as a bit of a surprise, and indeed, the Cinderella slippers seem to fit. But on the other hand, this team has Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, two names very familiar to anyone who has watched the Super Bowl consistently in the last decade or two. The fact that those two prominent names are, once again, dominating the headlines for yet another Super Bowl team should be no surprise. And absolutely no one is surprised to see the Chiefs here, as they were the favorites of most experts to win the AFC, and many (including yours truly) expected them to win it again, as well. So in a season full of tumult and unpredictability, perhaps the most predictable names possible wind up meeting in the biggest game, the final showdown.
The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs feel to me like the better, more complete team. It would be difficult to overstate the many advantages that KC enjoys not only over Tampa Bay heading into this game, but pretty much over every team in the league more generally. After all, this team won it all last season. Plus, they have had the best overall record over the past three seasons combined, by far. On average, they have finished 13-3 each season, and have added six postseason wins during that stretch which, again, is far and away more than anyone else. They have perhaps the best played in the league during that stretch in quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and likely the best overall collection of talent on offense, with a dangerous and explosive set of wide receivers, complimented by a solid running game. Their defense has improved by leaps and bounds in recent seasons, and ranked as one of the league's best defensive units this season. On top of all of that, head coach Andy Reid is one of the best in the business. He is one of the rare coaches to have led two different teams to the Super Bowl, and he has a chance in this game to join the elite ranks of head coaches who have won multiple Super Bowl titles.
Those are some impressive distinctions, yet I cannot shake this nagging feeling that I have in my gut about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They will not be favorites in this game, but they enter red hot, having become one of the few teams in league history to reach the Super Bowl by winning three straight road games in the playoffs (the 1985 Patriots, 2005 Steelers, 2007 Giants, and 2010 Packers being the others). The defense is not as dominant as the Tampa Bay defense that led the 2002 team to it's only previous Super Bowl, yet this defense steps up when they have to. They bend, but they do not break. And the offense is loaded with talent. One of the main criticisms all year long seemed to be that while the offense had talent, they lacked chemistry. But they seemed to have found chemistry in recent weeks during this run to the Super Bowl. This is a team that got hot at the right moment, and that makes them extremely dangerous. And let's face it: they have the GOAT on their side, which is no small matter, as he will be making his 10th Super Bowl start. Talk about experience! Think about this: that guy has started in one of every 5 1/2 Super Bowls, and he was not even born for the first twelve or so, and did not start playing until 33 of them had already been played. That means that in the past two decades and change, he makes it to the Super Bowl, on average, once every two years, roughly. And he wins most of them, even when he is down by large margins, like he was against Seattle in XLIX, when his team was down by 10 in the fourth quarter, and especially in LI against Atlanta, when his team trailed the Falcons 28-3 deep in the second half, and then staged one of the most memorable comebacks in sports history.
Of course, some could say that Brady's success was while he was in New England. For most of their championship seasons, that team was loaded with both talent and experience. In that regard, the Chiefs feel more like what the Pats were back in those days. Yet, the Patriots dynasty started in 2001, when they surprised the league and finished 11-5, like the Buccaneers did this season. They surprised still more people by surviving all the way to the Super Bowl, and then truly pulled off one of the most stunning upsets in Super Bowl history by beating the heavily favored Rams, who had won the Super Bowl two seasons earlier, and appeared to be on the verge of a dynasty. That should sound familiar. Tom Brady knows what it is like to be on a team not expected to do much in the postseason, and then entering the Super Bowl as underdogs. It should be expected that he will produce under extreme pressure, pretty much like he always does.
Kansas City is the more talented and complete team, and that will not change regardless of the outcome, even if they lose. But the Bucs feel like the team of the moment, the team of destiny. Everything is falling into place at exactly the right time for them. They will enter this game with a ton of confidence, and will not be intimidated or bowled over by the Chiefs. Then again, KC has a ton of experience at this highest level, and as the defending champions, they too know that they are fully capable of winning this game. Clearly, they will enter this game with an abundance of confidence as well.
At the very least, that should ensure an entertaining game between two teams capable and confident enough to win this game. In other words, we should not expect a blowout, where one team is so clearly superior and more talented and experienced, that they have effectively won the game in a real sense even before the actual kickoff.
Now, if you are superstitious, there are certain variables that some people pay attention to. Clearly, the Buccaneers paid attention to one of them by opting to wear their white jerseys. The team wearing white jerseys has generally fared better in the big game, winning a majority of the Super Bowls. That is especially true in the past decade and a half or so. Since Super Bowl XXXIX, the team wearing the white jerseys has won 13 Super Bowls, and lost only three. So if you believe in such things, then there is a reason to back th Bucs. Then again, one of the teams to have broken through and won the Super Bowl while wearing the dark jerseys was the Chiefs last year, so there's that going for KC.
Then, there is home field advantage. Yes, the Buccaneers made history by becoming the first team to qualify for the Super Bowl in the year where they host the big game. But since they are the only team, there is no history to fall back on. One would presume that this would be an advantage for Tampa Bay, but it might add to the pressure. But while Tampa is the first team to host the big game outright, two teams have come close to doing it. The Los Angeles Rams played in Super Bowl XIV in Anaheim, which is not terribly far from Los Angeles. They played the Steelers, and they lost, although they played well. The other team was the San Francisco 49ers, who played in Palo Alto, which is not very far from San Francisco, although it is farther away from that city than Anaheim is to Los Angeles. The 49ers beat the Dolphins in that big game. So, a split in the two big games where one team seemed to enjoy the definitive home field advantage, if you will, which does not tell us all that much, either.
Then, there is this whole AFC versus the NFC dimension. Currently, the two conference are tied. The NFC held an advantage ever since the Giants beat the Bills in Super Bowl XXV, and after that long NFC streak, the NFC enjoyed a pretty decisive 19-12 advantage. But the AFC slowly but surely chipped away at that, and last year's win by the Chiefs finally allowed the AFC to tie it up. This is a tiebreaker Super Bowl between the conferences. This will be the fifth one, and in those, the two conferences are split at two wins apiece. So once again, this will break that tie. Not much in the way of trends to go on with that, either.
Ultimately, though, it is not about who wears what uniform, or belongs to which conference, or whatever other frivolous, largely meaningless labels you throw at them. The team that wins this Super Bowl will be the team that executes more better, and that finds a way to get the job done. And while I still feel uncomfortable with picking either team, because it means going against the other, it is still my job right now to make that pick. As impressive as the Buccaneers have undeniably been - and they have indeed been very impressive - I started off the season picking the Chiefs to successful defend their title and win the Super Bowl for a second year in a row. It should be a close game, and it would not really be a shock if Tampa Bay pulls it off. But the Chiefs have gotten the job done better and more consistently over the last three years than any other team in the league, and they are here now, once again. No reason to turn my back on them now, when they still feel to me very much like the best and most capable team in the league. So I am sticking to my guns on this one, and am going with my original pick this season. The Chiefs will win on Sunday, taking a rare second straight title.
My pick: Kansas City Chiefs
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