🏈🏈🏈🏈
AFC Champions
New England Patriots
v.
NFC Champions
Seattle Seahawks
This Super Bowl could have been very close, or it could have been fairly one-sided - as it turned out to be - in favor of either team, and it would not have felt shocking. At least to me. Both teams had shown the capacity to be surprisingly dominant. Yet both teams, also and paradoxically, felt capable of a sudden letdown. Where everything starts to go wrong and it all compounds, all at once.
The only scenario that would truly have shocked me is if this game turned out to be a complete, laughable blowout for either team. Even this would not have been a total and complete surprise. After all, the Seahawks had blown out the 49ers - themselves a Super Bowl team just two years ago, and a seemingly legitimate contender this season until the blowout playoff loss - en route to this Super Bowl. What if their defense was playing lights out, and their offense was playing extremely well? After all, that offense had scored 41 in the divisional round against those 49ers and 31 in the NFC Championship against the Rams, respectively. What if their offense gets going early, perhaps benefits from a break or two, like turnovers (which I definitely saw going in Seattle's favor prior to this game)? Yeah, it could be quite lopsided.
However, that simply was not what I expected. The Seahawks defense might have been the best in the league, and certainly ranks among the elite defenses this season. But the Patriots also have a tough, elite defense, and I felt certain that they would give Seattle's offense a tough time. That is precisely what happened. If through the first quarter, it felt like the two teams were mostly feeling each other out, by the second and third quarter, it was obvious that both offenses were struggling against the opposing defense. It's just that the Seahawks were obviously better at capitalizing on their limited opportunities. New England's offense just seemed unable to get anything going, although at least they were not self-destructive (particularly in the first half).
For all intents and purposes, the game felt like this: both defenses were tough and physical and aggressive, and caused the opposing offenses fits. Yet the Seahawks kept doing just enough to get in some scoring opportunities, even if they had to settle for field goals. It seemed to me that the Patriots never got good enough field position that scoring even seemed like a real possibility, at least not through the first three quarters.
So that suggests that Seattle's Dark Side Defense just dictated the tempo of the game, more than any unit. New England's defense proved very tough, and seemed almost to flirt with forcing Seattle into a key turnover. Yet to their credit, the Seahawks never actually did commit a single turnover at any point. And they did just enough with those field goal opportunities to chip away at New England's chances of winning the game. They got three field goals in the first half for a 9-0 lead. When the Dark Side Defense still forced the Pats off the field with nary a scoring opportunity, another Seattle field goal made it 12-0, and it was growing decidedly uncomfortable for the Pats, who still could not get anything going. By the time that the Pats finally started scoring, it was very late in the game, when they were already down 19-0, after Seattle finally produced a touchdown. The Pats seemed to finally find something of a rhythm on offense, but by that point, the clock was their biggest enemy.
Also, they made some critical mistakes. New England quarterback Drake Maye threw two INT''s, including that awful pick-six late in the fourth which killed whatever slim chances the Patriots actually still had. But that seems fitting, as the Seahawks defense really was applying heavy and relentless pressure all game long. In the end, it shows with these statistics: the Dark Side Defense produced six sacks and three turnovers. That includes the pick six late in the fourth quarter that ended all real suspense.
No disrespect intended to Seahawks Kenneth Walker III, who became the first running back to win the Super Bowl MVP Honors since Terrell Davis, back in the late nineties. But it was Seattle's defense which truly dictated how this game went, from beginning to end. They became the first team since Pittsburgh's Steel Curtain defense back in the 1970's to pitch a Super Bowl shutout through the firs three quarters. Not just shutting the Pats out, though. In fact, it felt like New England never really had any scoring chances through the first three quarters. Opportunities were extremely limited. They never even got close. That is the reason why Seattle's very limited offensive production through the first three quarters of play suddenly turned into a death knell once the Seahawks offense actually managed to score a touchdown. Walker was the best tool in Seattle's proverbial offensive shed, but that would not have stood up, or perhaps even been a factor, if the Seahawks defense had not been lights out. If it had been up to me - obviously it wasn't - the entire Seattle defense deserved that MVP honor. At the very least, somebody from the Seahawks defense should have gotten it. Again, no disrespect intended to Walker, but this game was dictated by defenses, and the Seahawks defense just put on a clinic. That is the reason why the Seahawks walked away from this game with their second Vince Lombardi Trophy in franchise history.
Seattle's defense pitched that shut out through three quarters. And one well-known stat is that no team which has been shut out for the entire first half has ever come back to win. It certainly never felt like New England was going to threaten to be the first. Not against that defense.
So the NFL always seems to favor offenses. No surprise, then, that the MVP went to a offensive player, even though it was that Dark Side Defense which really set the tone, early and always and relentlessly.
The stats are deceptive in this game. The time of possession favored Seattle, but they only hung onto the ball for a bit over 33 minutes. Seattle produced 335 yards and 20 first downs on offense, while New England had 331 yards and 18 first downs. But most of the Patriots offensive production came very late, when the game was pretty well decided in Seattle's favor. One key statistic perhaps is a bit more important in revealing the way this game actually went: three turnovers by New England, and zero for Seattle. In fact, the Seahawks became one of those rare teams which produced zero turnovers throughout the entirety of these playoffs.
Sam Darnold became the first quarterback to win a Super Bowl after being on five other NFL teams. Darnold completed 19 of 38 for 202 yards and one touchdown. But his contributions were greater than those seemingly modest (on the surface) stats might suggest. He played well, and did not make any critical, costly mistakes. And that TD was crucial, coming as it did in the fourth quarter, and giving Seattle a nearly insurmountable lead.
Kenneth Walker III was a force on the ground. He won the Super Bowl MVP honors by producing 135 yards on 27 carries. In fact, he was one of the few consistent big producers for the Seattle offense through those first three quarters, when New England's defense proved very tough.
That said, Seattle place kicker Jason Myers deserves a special mention. He converted a Super Bowl record five field goals. Combine that with two successful extra-point conversions, and he obtained 17 points on seven kicks. That's a new Super Bowl record. He might have been a candidate for Super Bowl MVP honors.
On the losing side, quarterback Drake Maye had a miserable, forgettable day, completing 27 of 43 passes for 25 yards and two touchdowns, but also two INT's. He also lost a fumble. That said, I heard that he had apparently taken painkiller shots before the game. So perhaps something was bothering him, and that may have contributed to his struggles on this day.
Maye received little help on the ground. In fact, he was the leading New England runner, with just 37 yards on five carries. Hard to win a Super Bowl when you receive so little help, although Seattle's defense had more than a little to do with that.
And so that's it. The Seahawks get some measure of revenge (at least as a franchise) against New England for that heartbreaking Super Bowl XLIX loss back in February of 2015. They did not recover fully as a franchise, it seems, until this Super Bowl. Fittingly, against the same team that haunted them on that day. Seattle became the 17th NFL franchise to win multiple Super Bowl titles, as it now joins the ranks of franchises which have won at least two Super Bowls.
One more thing. It seemed to me that I did fairly well with my postseason predictions this year. I was a perfect 6-0 for Wildcard weekend, 2-2 in the divisional round, and 1-1 for the championship games. Add this Super Bowl prediction, which I got right, and that means that I was right 10 times, and wrong three times with my picks.
Not bad.
Thought it might be fun to review my own past Super Bowl predictions and see how accurate I was. Yes, I have made predictions for the big game every year since January of 2011, when the Packers beat the Steelers. Since then, it's been a mixed bag. Sometimes, I seem to be on point. Other times, clearly, I underestimated the team that actually emerged victorious. So let's see how I did with each of those predictions, and follow that up by adding my official prediction for Super Bowl LX.
Here goes:
Super Bowl XLV: Packers over Steelers
My pick: Accurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2011/01/super-bowl-xlv.html
Super Bowl XLVI: Giants over Patriots
My pick: Accurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2012/01/super-bowl-xlvi-preview-new-york-giants.html
Super Bowl XLVII: Ravens over 49ers
My pick: Accurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2013/01/super-bowl-xlvii-preview-baltimore.html
Super Bowl XLVIII: Seahawks over Broncos
My pick: Inaccurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2014/01/super-bowl-xlviii-preview.html
Super Bowl XLIX: Patriots over Seahawks
My pick: Inaccurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2015/01/super-bowl-xlix-preview.html
Super Bowl L: Broncos over Panthers
My pick: Inaccurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2016/02/super-bowl-50-preview.html
Super Bowl LI: Patriots over Falcons
My pick: Accurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2017/01/super-bowl-li-preview.html
Super Bowl LII: Eagles over Patriots
My pick: Inaccurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2018/02/super-bowl-lii-preview-predictions.html
Super Bowl LIII: Patriots over Rams
My pick: Accurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2019/02/super-bowl-liii-preview-new-england.html
Super Bowl LIV: Chiefs over 49ers
My pick: Accurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2020/01/super-bowl-liv-preview.html
Super Bowl LV: Buccaneers over Chiefs
My pick: Inaccurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2021/02/super-bowl-lv-preview.html
Super Bowl LVI:Rams over Bengals
My pick: Inaccurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2022/02/super-bowl-lvi-preview.html
Super Bowl LVII:Chiefss over Eagles
My pick: Accurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2023/02/super-bowl-lvii-prediction.html
Super Bowl LVIII:Chiefs over 49ers
My pick: Inaccurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2024/02/super-bowl-lviii-preview-prediction-san.html
Super Bowl LIX:Chiefss over Eagles
My pick: Inaccurate
So if you are keeping count, that means that out of the 15 Super Bowls dating back to Super Bowl XLVI that I have made predictions for here on this blogger, my accuracy for picking the correct winner is to be wrong slightly more often than I am right. Seven times I picked the team that wound up winning, and my guess proved to be inaccurate eight times. Almost like a .500 team, in other words, but I need to get my pick correct today to get back to even. Have to admit, I would have thought my accuracy would have been better. In fact, I was a bit stunned and admittedly disappointed to see how often I got the picks wrong for the big game.
This Super Bowl will break that tie. I will either have a winning record again, or a losing record. The pressure is on, and it's time to make my pick.
Now finally, here is my prediction for this year's Super Bowl:
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