🏈🏈🏈🏈
AFC Champions
New England Patriots
v.
NFC Champions
Seattle Seahawks
Okay, so here goes!
Super Bowl XL is here!
This one was nothing like what I imagined at the beginning of the season. I did not expect the Patriots to be even good enough to qualify for the playoffs. And while I thought that the Seahawks would have a decent chance to qualify for the postseason, my expectations were for a second or, more likely, a third-place finish within their division, and mostly likely also for an early exit.
Yet, here we are. These two teams, which feels surprising.
Both of these franchises have been to the Super Bowl before. In fact, the Patriots stand alone right now for the most Super Bowl appearances of any franchise in the NFL. This will be their 12th appearance, which is rather astonishing. They are tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most Super Bowl wins, with six. They are also tied with the Denver Broncos for the most Super Bowl losses, with five. One way or the other, they will stand alone with a new record at the end of this one.
Of course, almost everyone will recall that these two teams met in the Super Bowl before. That would be Super Bowl XLIX. Remember that one, the whole "Second and 1" controversy right at the end? The decision that ultimately derailed a dynasty?
Fair to say, I think, that the Seahawks as a franchise have not recovered fully since.
Yet, they have a chance to do so now, in the Super Bowl. And against the very same team that denied them that dynasty all of those years ago.
This is not exactly a rematch, of course. I do not believe that there is a single player - and maybe nobody on either coaching staff - left from those days for either team. So no, this is not an actual Super Bowl rematch.
And yet, I suspect that Super Bowl controversy will be talked about, and on a lot of people's minds, throughout Super Bowl week and into this particular Super Bowl.
Now for this game, my main suspicion is that it will be a relatively low-scoring game. That said, both of these teams have shown the capacity to be explosive at times. It would not surprise me if this game gets relatively explosive at key moments, particularly the fourth quarter.
Still, I expect it to remain a relatively low scoring game. Both teams have excellent defenses. The Seahawks offense often tends to struggle. The Patriots defense will likely try and make Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold beat them, as teams have done before. However, obviously Seattle will try to establish their running game. My expectations are that they will enjoy fair success with their running game. If they establish a very strong running game, as they sometimes have in the past, it might be a long day for New England.
Expect Darnold to be good in doing his part to support a balanced Seahawk offense. If they maintain a good balance between pass and rush, the Seahawks should be in good shape and give themselves a chance to win. If, on the other hand, the Pats defense manages to frustrate the Seahawks and force Darnold into passing to try to beat them, the Seahawks might be compromised.
So far this postseason, the Seahawks have yet to turn the ball over. So unless the Seahawks play a wildly uncharacteristic game and get sloppy, the Patriots really cannot expect Seattle to beat themselves. New England will have to earn it if they win this one.
Meanwhile, the Pats got away with some sloppiness this postseason. They committed five turnovers in their first two playoff games, although they hung onto the ball well in the cold and snow of Denver in the AFC title game. Neither the Chargers nor the Texans really made New England pay dearly for those turnovers. But the Seahawks, on the other hand, might just make the Pats pay, if they commit turnovers. That could, in fact, be the deciding factor.
Defensively, everyone knows, the Seahawks are generally solid. Granted, New England had one of the most explosive offense in the league this season. But that offensive explosiveness has not shown itself so much in the postseason. They have scored a total of 54 points in three games, for an average of 18 points. I suspect that they would be lucky to score much more than that today.
Seattle's run defense ranks among the elite units in the league, so New England might struggle in this regard. That would mean that Drake Maye would need to step up, as the Seahawks are, or tend to be, at least slightly more vulnerable against the pass. Again, though, avoiding turnovers will be the key. The Seahawks passing defense can be effective, especially if they pressure Maye and force mistakes.
Ultimately, I expect this to be a fairly competitive Super Bowl. Don't expect it to be nearly as exciting or explosive, most likely, as the first time these two teams met in a Super Bowl, but it should remain fairly competitive. Expect it to be competitive enough to be decided in the fourth quarter. A blowout is possible, but not likely. Turnovers are not just possible, but likely. And something tells me that the Seahawks will be the primary beneficiaries. In fact, I suspect that this will help Seattle's cause immensely.
As for my pick...
Before that, however, I thought it might be fun to review my own past predictions and see how accurate I was. Yes, I have made predictions for the big game every year since January of 2011, when the Packers beat the Steelers. Since then, it's been a mixed bag. Sometimes, I seem to be on point. Other times, clearly, I underestimated the team that actually emerged victorious. So let's see how I did with each of those predictions, and follow that up with my official prediction for this one, for Super Bowl LX.
Here goes:
Super Bowl XLV: Packers over Steelers
My pick: Accurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2011/01/super-bowl-xlv.html
Super Bowl XLVI: Giants over Patriots
My pick: Accurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2012/01/super-bowl-xlvi-preview-new-york-giants.html
Super Bowl XLVII: Ravens over 49ers
My pick: Accurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2013/01/super-bowl-xlvii-preview-baltimore.html
Super Bowl XLVIII: Seahawks over Broncos
My pick: Inaccurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2014/01/super-bowl-xlviii-preview.html
Super Bowl XLIX: Patriots over Seahawks
My pick: Inaccurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2015/01/super-bowl-xlix-preview.html
Super Bowl L: Broncos over Panthers
My pick: Inaccurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2016/02/super-bowl-50-preview.html
Super Bowl LI: Patriots over Falcons
My pick: Accurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2017/01/super-bowl-li-preview.html
Super Bowl LII: Eagles over Patriots
My pick: Inaccurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2018/02/super-bowl-lii-preview-predictions.html
Super Bowl LIII: Patriots over Rams
My pick: Accurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2019/02/super-bowl-liii-preview-new-england.html
Super Bowl LIV: Chiefs over 49ers
My pick: Accurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2020/01/super-bowl-liv-preview.html
Super Bowl LV: Buccaneers over Chiefs
My pick: Inaccurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2021/02/super-bowl-lv-preview.html
Super Bowl LVI:Rams over Bengals
My pick: Inaccurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2022/02/super-bowl-lvi-preview.html
Super Bowl LVII:Chiefss over Eagles
My pick: Accurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2023/02/super-bowl-lvii-prediction.html
Super Bowl LVIII:Chiefs over 49ers
My pick: Inaccurate
https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2024/02/super-bowl-lviii-preview-prediction-san.html
Super Bowl LIX:Chiefss over Eagles
My pick: Inaccurate
So if you are keeping count, that means that out of the 15 Super Bowls dating back to Super Bowl XLVI that I have made predictions for here on this blogger, my accuracy for picking the correct winner is to be wrong slightly more often than I am right. Seven times I picked the team that wound up winning, and my guess proved to be inaccurate eight times. Almost like a .500 team, in other words, but I need to get my pick correct today to get back to even. Have to admit, I would have thought my accuracy would have been better. In fact, I was a bit stunned and admittedly disappointed to see how often I got the picks wrong for the big game.
This Super Bowl will break that tie. I will either have a winning record again, or a losing record. The pressure is on, and it's time to make my pick.
Now finally, here is my prediction for this year's Super Bowl:
Super Bowl LX:
My pick: Seattle Seahawks
Accuracy? To be determined later on Super Bowl on Sunday
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