So, what happened? Was last season an aberration, or a sign of things to come? The Steelers used to be perennial powerhouses, but they have not been remarkably successful ever since losing Super Bowl XLV, and have missed the playoffs each of the last two seasons. The Ravens had a miserable title defense last season, but this was not unexpected, since they lost a lot of starters and talent, especially on the defensive side. The Bengals are tough, but they just can't seem to win a playoff game. They probably need to get that done this season, with Andy Dalton getting an incredibly huge contract, or else they will get a well earned reputation as a team that just cannot get the job done. And the Browns have some talent and seem to be heading in the right direction generally, but they always seem to see things unravel at some point each season. Will it happen again, or will they finally reach the status of true contender?
Here are my predictions for the AFC North:
1. Cincinnati Bengals (projected division winners) - The Bengals are kind of a weird team. Three seasons ago, many expected them to be closer to the worst team in the league than the best. But they surprised people in going 9-7, and qualifying for the playoffs. The only problem is that they could not beat anybody with a winning record, and they lost right away, and rather badly, in the playoffs. In 2012, they looked more solid, with improvements on both offense and defense, en route to a 10-6 record, and another playoff appearance (a rare feat for this franchise). A loss to the Texans, for the second season in a row, but at least they put up a fight that time. Then the Bengals looked solid for much of last season, with even more improvements to both their offense and defense, and their record reflected it, as they went 11-5, good enough for the division title (which they won with a very comfortable margin), and the third seed in the AFC. They won some impressive games, such as home wins against Green Bay, New England and Indianapolis, and a road win at San Diego, the team that they would meet in their third consecutive postseason appearance (a team record). The only problem is that they got dominated in that game, dashing high expectations. So, the questions then are whether they can keep improving on both offense and defense and, if so, can they actually win a playoff game. At this point, that is what the Bengals have to accomplish in order to view this season as a success. Failing that, the doubts will justifiably remain. Still, they should be good enough to secure another division title, at the very least, although I expect that they will get a tougher challenge from Baltimore than they did last year.
2. Baltimore Ravens (projected second place) - It's hard to tell when exactly the Ravens saw their title hopes last season really disappear. It might have been once they were officially eliminated from the playoffs, when they were 8-6, and then blown out 41-7 in front of their own home fans by the New England Patriots, the team that they had defeated earlier in the year to qualify for the Super Bowl. Or, it might have been in midseason, after a particularly cruel divisional loss to the Cleveland Browns, their fourth loss in five weeks. But realistically, it seemed that they had, in effect, been dethroned right on opening weekend, when Peyton Manning threw a record seven touchdowns on the day, a feat that had not been achieved in forever, and which catapulted the Broncos right away to de facto favorites in the AFC. From that point onward, the Ravens never looked even remotely like the team that had won the previous Super Bowl title. Yet, it was not as bad as all that, either. There were some highlights. They blew out the Texans, a then undefeated team that then ranked among the favorites. That was before anyone knew that the Texans would not win another game all year, though. They beat the eventual division champion Cincinnati Bengals in an overtime thriller, and they even had a four game winning streak towards the end of the season, that saw them go from 4-6, and on the precipice, to playoff contention. I suspect that the Ravens, who dropped both defensively and offensively last season, were the victims of being targeted as the defending champions, and should be better, as a result this season. In a disastrous season, the Ravens were still only 8-8, and still in playoff contention in late December. A lot of other down on their luck teams wish that they could have an "off year" like that! This season, I suspect, the Ravens should more closely resemble the team that made the playoffs five years in a row, prior to last season!
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (projected third place) - On the one hand, the Steelers got off to a horrendous start, not winning a single game until mid-October. On the other hand, after starting off a dismal 0-4, the Steelers recovered to reach 8-8 by season's end, even winning six of their last eight! True, they lost to the Vikings (one of the few teams that did) and the Raiders, but they also beat the Ravens, the Bengals, and the Packers! It was hard to tell which team was the "real" Steelers last season. But then again, it very well might have been both. Pittsburgh ranked right in the middle of the pack both offensively and defensively, and 8-8 is a middle of the pack record if there possibly can be one. They made it respectable last year, but they were also well out of playoff contention by midseason. And that was a season after they missed the playoffs, which now makes two seasons in a row for them - a relative rarity in recent years for Pittsburgh! They might be able to bounce back this year, but quite frankly, the Steelers are not the same team that made it to three Super Bowls in six seasons, winning two of them. This team is not a real threat to get to another Super Bowl, although they might be a playoff condtender again, and possibly even have a chance at second, or even first, in the division. Their schedule really does not look all that difficult, but they must remain healthy and focused. Also, they are not getting any younger, which is a definite source of concern. Those limitations are the only reason I have them in third, but their tremendous experience and toughness are what prevents me from seeing them as a bottom feeder. There is a better chance at them winning the division than being last place.
4. Cleveland Browns (projected last place) - I would love to be able to predict much better things for the Browns. Really, I would! I mean, I'm a Giants fan. But my team aside, the ideal Super Bowl for me (as I have mentioned on "The Charbor Chronicles before) would be between the Detroit Lions and the Cleveland Browns, both stories franchises that have run into incredible bad luck in recent years. There was a while there when the Browns were looking good last season. After an 0-2 start, they won three games in a row, including a contest against eventual division champions Cincinnati! At 3-2, the Browns were in first place! But then it all felt apart for them. Their defense only kept one opponent to under twenty points in the remaining eleven games of the season, and the offense generally struggled. All told, both the offense and defensive units ranked in the bottom third of the league, which accounts for their 4-12 record. Now, the Browns obviously attracted a lot of attention this offseason, with the acquisition of Johnny Manziel, although he did not even win the starting job for opening day. My suspicions are that he is more style than substance, but we shall see. In the meantime, I would love to forecast better things for this team and, perhaps in the near future, they will reach farther than they have in recent seasons. But this season is not looking like the one where Cleveland finally rises up. Perhaps they will improve on their 4-12 record, hopefully. Maybe they even take big strides towards improving. But there is just something about this team, where it all seems to unravel for them during a typical season, and sooner rather than later. That is why I have them as the last place team.
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