Given that, let me make my predictions about what will happen this season in the AFC West:
1. Denver Broncos (projected division winner) - Yes, they got embarrassed in the Super Bowl, but the Broncos were a very solid team all season prior to that. And the embarrassment at the Super Bowl woke up Denver management (especially John Elway, who himself was no stranger to helping the Broncos recover after a terrible Super Bowl blowout loss). They have addressed some of the concerns, especially on the defensive end. And while the departure of talent, such as wide receiver Eric Decker hurts, does anyone really think that a Peyton Manning-led offense on a team that went 13-3 the last two seasons, and went all the way to the Super Bowl last season, won't enjoy strong success this year? Now, I am not sure that I will seriously entertain the undefeated prediction by Tony Gonzales for this team, but I have little doubt that the Broncos are still the class of the AFC West, and should win the division for the fourth straight season. Still, Denver has some tough games outside of their division, including home games against San Francisco and Indianapolis, and away games at Seattle, New England and Cincinnati. An undefeated season might be too much to ask for, but Denver looks more determined to succeed than any Super Bowl loser that I remember seeing, and I suspect that it will lead to strong success this season. Manning and company have too much a sense of urgency, knowing that the window of opportunity will only be open for them for so long. History is actually against them, since no Super Bowl loser has come back to win the Super Bowl shortly thereafter in a long, long time. Washington lost Super Bowl XVIII, but went back to the Super Bowl four seasons later and won it. Dallas did it a couple of times in the seventies, as did Miami (the last team to win the Super Bowl the season after losing it), and Kansas City in the sixties. In fact, many Super Bowl losing teams struggle for seasons after, with few returning (the Patriots being a notable exception). But nobody has done it in a very long time, as you have to go all the way to the Buffalo in the nineties as the most recent example of a losing Super Bowl team returning the very next season. So the Broncos will have to rise far above recent Super Bowl losers in order simply to have a shot! But so far, at least through the offseason and most of the preseason, the Broncos look capable, at the very least! They will need to get the job done on the field, but I suspect that this team has a very strong chance of bucking history and making it back to the big game!
2. San Diego Chargers (projected second place) - The Chargers enjoyed a revival of sorts last season. While some were wondering if Philip Rivers had his best years behind him, and if the Chargers - a team that was close to being Super Bowl-caliber some years ago - had missed their opportunity, last season's success energized this team, and make them look like serious contenders entering this season. But it is crucial that the Chargers get off to a strong start this season, because the season will not get any easier for them as it goes along. They have some winnable games early on, and they need to take advantage, because six of their last ten games are against playoff teams from last season, and they will also have tough road games during that stretch against Miami and Baltimore! With such a tough schedule, it can be all too easy to imagine that any slip could cost them a shot at the playoffs! Still they were very solid last season, and got better and stronger as the season wore on. They beat the Bengals in Cincinnati in the playoffs, and made a game out of what was looking early on like a blowout loss at Denver. So, this is a resilient, crafty team with a decent defense, and an offense led by one of the best quarterbacks out there in Philip Rivers. Plus, the addition last season of Danny Woodhead to compliment the solid running game of Ryan Mathews should assure continued success this season, as well! I think the Chiefs will drop off from their 11-5 record of last season, which should be the perfect opportunity for San Diego to step up and take second place, and qualifying for the playoffs again, in a brutal division.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (projected third place) - You knew all offseason that it was going to be hard not to think of Kansas City and remember their epic playoff collapse last postseason at Indianapolis. It was the second-largest comeback in NFL playoff history (and tied for second overall in NFL history!), and it made you wonder which Kansas City team was truly indicative of how good they were last season. Was it the team that raced off to a 9-0 start, or the team that had that 2-5 finish to the regular season, and were bounced out in their first playoff contest? Was it the team that raced out to a 28-point lead against the Colts, or the team that allowed Indianapolis not only to get back in the game, but to win it? I suspect that this season, we'll be seeing more of the latter to both questions, because it was hard to believe, at any point during last season, that Kansas City was as good as their record indicated. And history has generally not been kind to teams that got huge leads in playoff games, only to lose the game later. In 1992, the Oilers had a 35-3 lead against Buffalo, and then, infamously, managed to lose. They started off the next season 1-4, but then got hot, ending at 12-4, only to lose their first playoff contest in another playoff collapse, and they were simply terrible for seasons after that! My Giants blew a 38-14 halftime lead at San Francisco in 2002, and failed to qualify for the playoffs the next season. In 2006, the Patriots had a 21-3 second quarter lead over Indianapolis, only to lose it in the second half. Of course, they were 16-0 the next season, but ultimately lost in the Super Bowl. Finally, Atlanta went 13-3 a couple of years ago, and had a 17-0 lead over San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game, only to eventually lose. They had a terrible season last year, and never made a serious playoff run. I suspect Kansas City will look like that, a team that fails to even come close to qualifying for the playoffs, as they start their season off against Tennessee (a decent team in their own right), before playing four of five away games, including at Denver, at San Francisco, and at San Diego. Their one home game? Against New England! The rest of the season still has a lot of tough games, but I think this team will be, de facto, out of the playoff race by midseason. In fact, I was tempted to place them at the cellar of the division, but gave them the benefit of the doubt as a playoff team last year. Just don't expect the playoffs this season!
4. Oakland Raiders (projected last place) - The Raiders are better than most last place teams. Unfortunately, however, they play in the AFC West, a tough division for any rebuilding team. And even though they have made some fairly dramatic improvements, the fact remains that they have the toughest schedule of any team entering this season! It will start off rough for them, with an away game at the New York Jets, before their home opener against a Houston team that I suspect will be much better than they were last season, and then a very scary contest at New England! They have other scary games later, too, such as traveling to Seattle, and a home game against San Francisco, as they, as members of the AFC West, play the NFC West, probably the toughest division in the NFL, this year. I did not even mention the tough games within their own division (remember, ever single other team in this division qualified for the playoffs last season). And seven of their last nine games this season are against playoff teams from a year ago, and four of those are away games! So, despite the fact that the Raiders made some serious improvements to their roster, they just can't catch any breaks, and should be right back to the bottom of the pile this year, too. They may have made improvements, but it likely will not be reflected too much in the win column this year. And that's unfortunate, because they might even contend for a playoff position if they were in another, weaker, division.
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