2014 AFC South Preview

The AFC South should have been a two-team contest last season. A race between two solid teams, the Colts and the Texans, who nonetheless teamed up to keep the other two teams in the division down. Indeed, through the first couple or so games, that was the way it seemed to be shaping up, as the Colts looked good, and the Texans were unbeaten at 2-0. Obviously, that did not last, and the Colts wound up running away with it in a weak division. The Jaguars improved from the previous season, but they were still among the weakest teams. And the Titans were decent at times, but never a serious playoff contender.

So, how will the AFC South shape up this season? Let me take my best shot to predict it:

 

 

1. Indianapolis Colts (projected division winners) - Indianapolis had a much easier time of it last season than anyone could have expected them to have. And if the Texans don't return back to playoff form this season, I suspect the Colts will have just as easy a time of it this season, as well. True, the season starts off with a very tough contest - at Denver. But beyond that, the Colts have your run-of-the-mill schedule. Some playoff teams, and some weaker teams. Nothing that they can't handle, after all. They'll win some games, and they'll lose some games, of course. Last season, they lost some games that they should not have lost, but won some big-time games, as well. Their first loss came in week two, at home against Miami. But they followed that up by dismantling the 49ers in San Francisco. They handed both eventual Super Bowl teams, the eventual AFC champions Denver and eventual Super Bowl champion Seattle their first defeat of the season, but got humiliated by the Rams in Indianapolis! They crushed the Chiefs in Kansas City, but needed an epic comeback to win the Wildcard game, after falling behind by 28 points! It seems fair to say that the Colts are inconsistent. If they want to truly step up and become on of the elite teams, they need to play far more consistently, and not lose so many games that they have no business losing. I believe the Colts should win the AFC South, but I doubt that they will win it as easily as they did last season, because I think the Texans are going to bounce back from last year's disaster in a big way. 

 

 

 

 

2. Houston Texans (projected second place) - The Texans entered last season with high expectations. Some people, including yours truly, predicted that they would go all the way to the AFC Championship Game, and possibly even the Super Bowl! And after a 2-0 start, everything seemed to be following the script. But then they lost. Once. Twice. Three times. Four. Five. Schaub was benched, but that did not help. The losing streak just kept on going. Pretty soon, it was a given that they would not qualify for the playoffs, but still, everyone suspected that they would right the ship eventually. They were too good of a team not to do it. Yet, the horrendous streak continued, literally all the way to the end of the season! A promising 2-0 start in a season where the Texans were among the favorites turned into an epic nightmare where those were the only two games that they won, as they finished the season with an unthinkable fourteen game losing streak! So, suggesting that they will improve is hardly going out on a limb - they could hardly do worse! But I suspect that the Texans team that started the 2012 season off with an 11-1 record, and looked like one of the elite teams in the AFC, is not that far away. They just got on a bad streak, and it seemed the entire team gave up on everything. A tough defense that ranked near the top in 2012 was on the opposite end of the spectrum last season. Their offense never got going. And the season was an exercise in futility and humility as a result. This season, the Texans are blessed with a relatively mild schedule, and they had all offseason to work on those issues. There is still a decent core of talent here, and I think they needed some tweaking, rather than a complete overhaul. I expect that they begin to turn things around and, if they start to find their winning ways again, they could be right back in the playoff chase, if not perhaps even fighting for the division title!

 

3. Tennessee Titans (projected third place) - The Titans are tough to understand. They started off last season by beating a tough team like the Steelers on the road, and beat the Chargers, a team that qualified for the playoffs. They raced out to a 3-1 start, losing only on the road at Houston in overtime. They looked like a serious contender! They then had a tough stretch of games, including Kansas City, Seattle, and San Francisco. Three losses, obviously, and they never recovered from there. Yet, they still managed a respectable 7-9 record, and could possibly have at least contended for a playoff position, had they not lost some of the games that they maybe should have won. They do not have any long stretches of playing elites in the league, like they did last year. Yet, they have enough tough games - on the road at Cincy, at Kansas City, at Baltimore, and at Philadelphia, and a home game against the Giants, not to mention the two games against the Colts and Texans each,  that it is hard to imagine them winning this season. Mostly, that's because it's all too easy seeing them also losing games that they should be able to win. They can't keep losing to Jacksonville and hoping that they can recover. They are not good enough, simply put, to recover from bad losses like that. In other words, they are not the Colts. And that is why I cannot predict anything better for them than third place, and not a factor in the playoff race. I kind of like the Titans, and would not mind them doing well. But I just don't see it this year! 

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (projected last place team) - The Jaguars have been kind of a joke for a while now. It does not help that they have among the very worst uniforms in the league. But the quarterback controversy seems to be growing bigger, and the quality of talent, while improving, simply is not enough to make this team a contender. They start off the season in very tough fashion, at Philly, and that's a loss. Unfortunately, it will be the first of many for them. The Jags have a shot at respectability, and by that, I mean a 7-9 record or so. In other words, they might avoid complete disaster. But that's a best case scenario, because Jacksonville just is not very good, and they do not have the tools at their disposal to be competitive. While they should avoid the disaster of a winless start through half the season, like they had last year, they nonetheless will not do enough to prevent the pitfalls of mediocrity. Their offense last year was the worst in the league, and their defense was not much better. They would need a total overhaul to get to where they want to be, and they certainly did not get there this last offseason. That translates to another last place finish.