So, where does each team stand right now?
Here are my predictions for the 2014 NFC South standings:
1. New Orleans Saints (projected first place) - Let me just say this, right off the bat: I believe that the Saints were the best team overall in the NFC South, even if they did not win the division. They were extremely difficult to beat at home, and I suspect that the 49ers would have had a far more difficult time dealing with the Saints in the Superdome, than they did the Panthers at Carolina. Almost all season long, the Saints looked like the number two seed in the NFC, but lost a few games that they should really have won. In the end, instead of being the second seed, they fell all the way to fifth, forcing them to have to win on the road. They did, at least their first game, in Philadelphia. They would lose to Seattle the next week, but came back from a big deficit to give the Seahawks all that they could handle. Had a couple of plays worked out differently, the Saints very well may have won that game! So, I believe that the Saints were right up there, perhaps just one notch below, the two biggest teams in the NFC, the Seahawks and 49ers. And I think the Saints will be right there again this season, too. Again, the Saints were on the verge of being the NFC's number two team, in every way last season, until the screwed that up at the last minute. That is what they have to avoid this season. They have some tough teams on their schedule, but at least get to play teams like the 49ers, the Packers, the Bengals, and the Ravens from the comforts of home, in the Superdome. In fact, the Saints have a relatively easy schedule, so they really can't afford losing games like they did last year to, say, the Jets. If they are going to be the elite team that they really are capable of being, then they need to win every game that they are capable of winning, and that means not losing to weaker opponents. And if they can pull that off, this is a team capable of going very, very far in the postseason. Possibly all the way to the Super Bowl! At the very least, they are good enough to be the cream that rises to the top in this division.
2. Atlanta Falcons (projected second place team) -The Atlanta Falcons were not as good as the 13-3 record that they managed to attain in 2012 (as well as 2010), but neither were they as bad as last year's 4-12 record would suggest. This is a team that should contend for the playoffs, but is probably not nearly as good, or as dangerous, as the Saints, who to me, seem the far better team at this point, top to bottom. Atlanta started off the 2012 season with an incredible 8-0 run, and were able to play at that level to reach that final regular season record of 13-3. But last year, the Falcons kept losing narrow games early in the season, and struggled to get a second win under their belts as midseason approached. They never recovered, and that accounts for that dismal 4-12 follow-up to their first seed in the NFC 2012 season. They were far better than that, but here's the thing: they have a rough start to the season this year, as well. They open with a home game against the Saints, then go to Cincinnati. It is very possible that they could start the season at 0-2, and they need to show better abilities to recover if that happens. Last season, it felt almost like the Falcons just gave up, as they fell away from the playoff picture early. This is still a very talented team, and the beefed up on defense to make sure that they would not be pushed around as easily as in recent seasons past. Remember, also, that they have a tremendously talented, and potentially explosive, offense. They should easily be at least second place in this division, and should at least also make a playoff run, if not qualify for the postseason. But if times get tough, they simply cannot give up on what they are doing. In other words, they cannot allow any part of this season to become a tailspin, like happened pretty much all of last season. They have some tough games scattered throughout their season - at the Giants, at Baltimore, against Arizona, and at Green Bay, to say nothing of the divisional games they face. But the Falcons are good enough to beat weaker teams consistently, something that they failed to do last season. Also, they may very well be good enough to win some of those games against the better teams, if they remain focused and prepare well. And if they manage to avoid stumbling like they did last season, this could, and perhaps even should, be a playoff contender!
3. Carolina Panthers (projected third place team) - Like with the Atlanta Falcons not being as good as their 13-3 record from 2012 suggested, the Carolina Panthers were not nearly as good as their 12-4 record and division title last season suggested. Yes, they have a solid defense, and yes, Cam Newton is always dangerous, with everyone expecting him to have that one breakout season, once and for all. But to me, the truest essence of the Carolina Panthers was the team that got off to an early lead against the San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs, and then got dominated the rest of the way. It was predictable, it's what everyone expected in that game. And as many surprises as the Panthers may have had in store last season, it was ultimately their failure to deliver anything really solid or meaningful when it counted the most that reveals an uncomfortable truth about them: that they are better defined by their weaknesses than their strengths. They are capable of getting off to a decent start, and they are going to need it, because starting with their game at Baltimore in week four, they have some very tough games - at Cincinnati and at Green Bay in consecutive weekends, and they immediately follow that up with home games against Seattle and New Orleans, before returning on the road at Philadelphia! That's five consecutive playoff teams last season, and would anyone be shocked if they were either 1-4 or even 0-5 during that stretch? Not I. The rest of the way, they will still have to play Atlanta twice, and take a trip down to New Orleans. If the Panthers can hold it all together, they could still be a playoff contender. But my suspicion is that the pressure of being the division champion last season, mixed with the fact that they won't be sneaking up on anybody this year, like they did last year, will prove costly to Carolina. They have talent, but I suspect that this year, we might just see more of that team that got dominated against the 49ers in the playoffs, than the team that did so much dominating in the regular season last year. Playoff contention is doubtful, even if Cam Newton stays healthy.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - (projected last place) - Tampa Bay had revamped their defense last offseason and, to many NFL pundits, were expected to do some big things last season. They almost beat the Jets to open the season, but lost a tough game there. It seemed that they never recovered, as they stumbled to an 0-8 record, and were well out of playoff contention well before then. Obviously, they cannot afford to get off to such a winless start this season. The Bucs have some talent, and should be able to improve on last season's dismal 4-12 record. They have a lot of tough games on the schedule, but they also have some winnable games against weak opponents. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, those opponents probably look at the Bucs as a winnable game against a weak opponent, as well. They just acquired Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins from New England, which helps beef up their offensive line. And remember, Tampa Bay still has many of the pieces in place that had everyone believing in them at this point last year. But high expectations and some uniform changes does not translate to success. At some point, they are going to have to make things happen for them on the field. Good things. And with a tough division, and too many games against more talented, better teams, I just don't see Tampa Bay enjoying enough success to significantly turn things around from last season, let alone to make a serious run at the playoffs. This is a team that, unfortunately, will be relegated to the basement once again.
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