Friday, January 18, 2019

Does This Weekend Qualify as "Greatest Final Four Ever? Not So Fast!

NFC Championship Game

Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 3:05 p.m.


Los Angeles Rams    (9-1) 



v.



New Orleans Saints (13-3)


New Orleans Saints (13-3)




AFC Championship Game

Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 6:40 p.m.

New England Patriots (11-5) 



v. 



Kansas City Chiefs   (12-4)




Some are saying that this might be the most exciting "Final Four" in NFL history.

Now, I cannot be sure, personally. After all, we had some very exciting Final Fours in the past, with some excellent teams. But I will say this, however: the four teams that are left are the four best teams in the league, and were pretty much all season long. Kansas City and New England were the two best teams in the AFC, and New Orleans and Los Angeles were the two best teams in the NFC. So, it is fitting that these teams would meet in the AFC title game.

We also had previews of the games during the regular season, as these teams met before. The Rams were undefeated at 8-0 when they went down to New Orleans for a big showdown with the Saints. They did not survive that game with their unbeaten record intact. In fact, they lost their number one seed to the Saints on that day, something that they would eventually do for good some weeks later. The Saints jumped out and took a big lead, but the Rams battled back to tie the thing. In the end, however, New Orleans hung on for the win.

In the AFC, the Patriots and Chiefs also met earlier this season, although the major difference is that the early meeting was up in Foxboro, while this coming meeting will be at Arrowhead. The Patriots and Chiefs had a shootout, with New England handing the then undefeated, 5-0 Chiefs their first defeat of the season. The Pats outlasted the Chiefs, 43-40, in a game that actually earned KC some significant respect, despite them losing. They have been regarded as a legitimate contender ever since.

But can they beat the Patriots, finally? Respect is one thing, but this team really wants to reach the Super Bowl, once and for all. After all, it has been 49 years since their last appearance. They feel that they are overdue.

As for the Saints, can they hold serve on their home turf and knock out the Rams when it counts the most? The Rams have not looked as explosive or unstoppable like they did earlier this season, but they are clearly still dangerous.

Both home teams are expected to win this weekend. The Chiefs are, somewhat surprisingly, three point favorites in this game, while the Saints are 3 1/2 point favorites. If you want to know just how important home field advantage can be, especially in the postseason, just take a look at last weekend's result, where no single road team managed to pull off a victory in four attempts. We will not see the Wildcard team in either Championship Game for the first time in several years.

Now, I am not quite as certain that this will be the most exciting Championship Game weekend in history. After all, I have been watching these games since the 1981 season, and have seen some great and exciting teams and games and players. Yes, every team on this list is an offensive powerhouse, and so I guess that for most people, that means excitement. But sometimes, for me, the lack of defensive prominence can be a bit tiresome. Call me crazy, but I am not so sure that a game at this level with a similar score to the Rams-Chiefs shootout of 54-50 earlier this season would necessarily be more exciting or intense than some well-played games by more well-rounded, complete teams with solid offenses and defenses.

For my part, I can think of some very exciting Championship Game weekends. The 1986 season saw the Giants hosting Washington in the NFC title game. The Giants won, 17-0, but it was a renewal of a great rivalry between the team that was destined to win that Super Bowl (the Giants) and the team that would win the next Super Bowl. In the AFC title game, the Broncos and Browns had that epic meeting, which would end with John Elway's "The Drive" to tie it and force overtime, where they would eventually win it. The next year was pretty exciting as well, with Washington hosting Minnesota, and Denver and Cleveland in a rematch. Both games were close. For that matter, 1995 was exciting, as well. The upstart Colts were finally beaten - albeit barely! - by the Steelers, even though it went down to the final play of the game. And the Cowboys orchestrated a big fourth quarter comeback to finally defeat the Green Bay Packers and reach their final Super Bowl of the nineties, which they would go on to win.

Those were some of the exciting Championship games that I can think of, off the top of my head, in terms of great match-ups and/or exciting games. But there were also Championship Games with some incredible players and teams. Everyone remembers the rivalry between the Cowboys and Niners in the early nineties, or the Colts and Patriots in the 2000's. There were huge games between teams that had actually won major accomplishments in recent years. The only team remaining this weekend who has even reached as far as the Championship Game in the past eight seasons is the New England Patriots. The Saints made it to the NFC title game way back in 2009, and they would go on to win the Super Bowl. But that was nine seasons ago! The Rams have not been in the NFC title game since the 2001 season, and as for the Chiefs, this is their first AFC Championship appearance since the 1993 season, when they were led by Joe Montana. You could maybe make an argument that the Rams, Saints, and/or Chiefs have been building up and getting better for years, but you could also make the argument that the only truly proven team remaining would be the Patriots, as well.

By extension, then, I think that you can make the argument that this lack of championship level experience actually detracts from this final four. After all, back in the 1980's and 1990's, you had final fours where most of the teams involved in the final four had some Super Bowl experience. At least three teams had Super Bowl experience (not necessarily winning Super Bowl experience, however) in 1983, 1991, 1993, and 1997. And even though these are good games with a lot riding on them, I hardly think that the argument could be made that the Patriots-Chiefs rivarly carries with it the same level of prominence as the Patriots-Colts rivalry last decade did, or even the Patriots-Steelers both last decade and in this decade. On the NFC side, I would suggest that the Saints-Rams rivalry also is not nearly on the level of the Cowboys-49ers rivalry of the early 1980's and especially in the early 1990's, when the two teams dominated the league. Some of these teams may have been built to last. Certainly, I would think you could say that about the Patriots. But would anyone be really shocked if the Rams or Chiefs, following the tremendous success that they enjoyed this season, suddenly reverted back to being just another team next season, especially if one of them wins it all? Or if the Saints, if they manage to win it all this season, suddenly struggle a lot more next season in what would be their title defense? After all, look at the Eagles. Yes, they turned it on a bit late in the season. But they never looked anywhere near where they were last season, when they went 13-3 to dominate the NFC and earn the top seed, and then dominated in the NFC playoffs and ultimately, won the Super Bowl. Maybe they will be back next season, but maybe not. Fact is, most defending champions really seem to struggle the following season, and this lack of long-term success also detracts considerably from making this final four truly feel like the greatest ever.

Don't get me wrong: I would like to see this championship weekend the best that we have ever seen. But if it is so, it will surely be because the teams bring it on, that they put on a performance that makes this coming weekend memorable for years to come. Frankly, you just cannot predict that. Who knew in January of 1986 that the Broncos and Browns would play a classic AFC title game that would still be remembered decades later?

A lot of this is based on perspective, after all. Remember the 1994 Dream Team for the United States basketball team? Not likely, because they were clearly in the shadow of the 1992 Dream Team, which is still often considered the greatest assembly of talent in history. After all, they had Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson, Karl Malone, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Charles Barkely, John Stockton, and Chris Mullin. That is an all-time line-up, and for most people, there was no one who could compare, before or since. Yet, Shaquille O'Neal and Reggie Miller insisted that that 1994 Team USA group was better and more talented than the 1992 squad is. For them, that rang true. For most of the rest of us, however, it is almost a laughable notion, and we would feel that the egos of those two basketball stars - both of whom were nevertheless undeniably great and talented - were getting in the way of allowing them some perspective, to say nothing of modesty.

So, perhaps it will be a great weekend of incredible, championship-level NFL play. Personally, I think that the Chiefs-Patriots game might have that potential, as it could feel like a symbolic changing of the guard if young quarterback phenom Patrick Mahomes and his Chiefs manages to outshine the old, established champions, the New England Patriots. It might feel a little reminiscent of the Cowboys knocking off the 49ers in the 1992 NFC Championship Game, if the game is intense and well-played. But that will only be the case if Mahomes and Chiefs manage to do that, and then become a power house for years to come in their own right. If they are merely a team who makes it to this Super Bowl level once, and done, then no, most likely it will not be remembered in that same light. Same with the Saints and Rams, who could light up the scoreboard, but might not necessarily play a classic that will be remembered and discusses as one of the all-time great games 20 or 30 years from now.

This guy, however, argues that this might be the best set of coaches to ever reach the conference championship games together. Well, I can definitely see both Belichik and Reid in that discussion. But Sean Payton has only won one Super Bowl leading into this season, and that is, arguably, not what he is most famous for. After all, he was found guilty of instructing his players to seek out and injure opposing players, right? And as far as Rams coach Sean McVay, he has had two very successful seasons, true. But does that qualify him in the discussion of greatest of all-time? A few years ago, we might have included Bruce Arians in that discussion, and now, Arians is not even coaching anymore. This is not to detract from what McVay has accomplished. All I am saying is that McVay has not done anything just yet to qualify him anywhere near a discussion of being among the best ever coaches. Say he loses this next game, and never gets back to the NFC title game. Say the Rams taper off in the next few seasons, and he is forgotten some years from now. Will people still be talking about him as a great coach then? Will all but the most dedicated football fans remember him 20 years from now, if indeed he does not go anywhere with this team? It is just premature to suggest that this is the best coaching foursome to reach the conference finals. Remember, we used to have Bill Walsh and Joe Gibbs and Dan Reeves and Marv Levy regularly reaching the NFL's final four. We had Bill Parcells versus Tom Coughlin in 1996, and Mike Holmgren winning with the Packers in the other title game that same year. Hell, more recently than that, we had Belichick and Reid each at this level, coaching against other great coaches, like Tony Dungy. So it is very debatable that this year's edition of coaches in the conference championships qualifies as the best ever.

What I am trying to say, as mild and meek as it might seem, is this: let's see what happens.




Most exciting NFL final four ever? Why these playoffs have a case play 9:05 AM ET Bill Barnwell ESPN Staff Writer      

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