NFL 2018-19 Championship Game Weekend Preview: Possible Changing of Guards

This weekend's games will occupy my attention for a few days now, because I need a break from the nonsense that we keep hearing about on the news, with the government shutdown, and Trump proclaiming one day that he would be proud to own the shutdown, and then pointing the finger of blame at anyone but himself, as he pretty much always does. The world situation is bleak, and sometimes, you need to give yourself a break.

So, here we go. There are a couple of intriguing games coming up this weekend, with the winners, of course, heading to Super Bowl LIII. 

The first game pits the Los Angeles Rams and the New Orleans Saints. The second one, in the evening, will have the defending AFC Champion New England Patriots visiting the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, on what is supposed to be an incredibly frigid evening for football. The Pats will be trying to become only the third team in NFL history to reach a third straight Super Bowl. Nobody has managed that feat since the Buffalo Bills went to four straight Super Bowls back in the early nineties. 

All of the teams playing this weekend have explosive, high-scoring offenses, and big names playing on that side. Therefore, many are expecting some offensive fireworks, which should make this game interesting.

Let's take a closer look:

NFC Championship Game

Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 3:05 p.m.

Los Angeles Rams  (13-3) 

v.

New Orleans Saints (13-3)

L.A. Rams at New Orleans - These two teams met earlier this season, and in the same venue as this game will be played. In that game, the Saints scored 14 points in the first quarter, then broke a 14-14 tie with three touchdowns in the second quarter to take a commanding 35-14 lead. The Rams came back, and tied it, but the Saints managed to put enough points up in the fourth quarter to earn a 45-35 win in a shootout. 

That win effectively gave New Orleans home field advantage, which is why this game is being played in the Big Easy. The Saints have home field advantage, and I believe that they have the most complete team in the league. Clearly, they have an explosive offense, but last weekend showed that they can win a slug-fest against a tough, physical team if need be, as well. Their offense has a strong running game, with Alvin Kamara looking like an elite running back. Clearly, though, it is quarterback Drew Brees who truly fuels this potent offense, and he has looked great again in recent seasons, particularly this season. If he has a good game, the Saints are likely in good position to win. If he has a bad game, their chances are compromised. And it might seem to really be the last, best chance for Brees to get a second Super Bowl ring, and possibly to allow him to ride off into the sunset on top. 

The Rams, of course, have a pretty solid offense themselves. They too have one of the elite quarterbacks in the league in Jared Goff, and they probably have the best running back in the league in Todd Gurley. As the first game showed, the Rams cannot be counted out even if the Saints are able to take a big lead, because Los Angeles can score a lot of points in a hurry. Their defense is probably a notch or two below that of New Orleans, as the Saints really clamped down on the defending champions following a disastrous start in the first two drives. 

What most people are expecting is a shootout, and indeed, it would be hard to argue against the likelihood that this will wind up being a high scoring game in which the team that has the ball last wins. This game could come down to the final minutes, and possibly even the final play. Not sure whether it will or not, but if I have to make a bet on who will come out on top, my guess is that the Saints worked hard to get home field advantage for a reason, and that at the end of this one, the reason why they worked that hard to get it will become clearer.

My pick: New Orleans

AFC Championship Game

Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 6:40 p.m.

New England Patriots (11-5) 



v. 



Kansas City Chiefs   (12-4)

New England at Kansas City - These two teams met earlier this season, although that game was played up in Foxboro when it was still relatively mild. The Patriots won that game in a tight shootout, 43-40. This game will be played in the frigid cold at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. So, the outcome might be very different. 

This is the game that everyone wants to watch, because this pits the established, old champions and the rising young power. The New England Patriots have been the elite team in the league now for the past two decades, versus the team that has risen to challenge them for AFC supremacy. The old, great quarterback elite, Tom Brady, versus the young rising quarterback phenom, Patrick Mahomes. Two great coaches, as well. Bill Belichick, the master, with more Super Bowl appearances, and more Super Bowl wins, than any other coach, versus one of the most accomplished coaches in Andy Reid to have never won the Super Bowl. 

So both the Kansas City quarterback and head coach feel like the under-starts who need to prove something. Hell, even the Chiefs as an organization probably feel that they need to prove themselves, as well, because this is only the second AFC Championship Game appearance dating back to 1970. And they have not been back to the Super Bowl since winning it Super Bowl IV. What better team to do it against than the Patriots, the very symbol of postseason success - and overall success, for that matter - in our time?

Both teams have dangerous offenses, but Kansas City has one of the most explosive offenses in league history. Mahomes threw for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns this season, becoming only the second man in league history to enjoy that kind of success in one season. But the offense also might be overly wrapped up around him, and I would not put it past Belichick to find a way to contain him, at least enough to give his own team a decisive advantage.

Kansas City has one major weakness: their defense. Yes, they looked good last weekend against the Colts, but the Patriots are a different ball of wax altogether. And New England has a much better defense, and so they feel like the more complete team. But still, that offense of KC's is scary, and if Mahomes gets hot, it will be tough for the Patriots to keep up, especially on the road, where they were far from great this season.

That is what this game is all about. Both teams have impressive strengths, yet they both also have shown some serious vulnerabilities, as well. New England has the most accomplished and arguably, the most successful head coach in history, as well as arguably the most accomplished and successful quarterback in history. This is a team that is well-disciplined, and has more postseason experience than any other team in the league. Yet, they have been weak on the road, with a 3-5 record away from Foxboro. And the defense might be decent, but they allowed 40 points against the Chiefs in that first meeting, and that was up in Foxboro! What will happen if they allow that many points against that incredible offense at Arrowhead? As for the Chiefs, their offense is one of the best that we have seen, and Mahomes looks like the future of the league. Plus, Andy Reid has coached some big games, as well. But Kansas City has personified underachieving as a franchise, and Reid himself has never yet won the big one. Mahomes is not a proven entity in the postseason, and he did not throw for a touchdown last weekend. Plus, that defense is a liability!

When you look at it, there are reasons to believe that either team could win based on their strengths, and there are also reasons, almost as compelling, to figure that either team might lose. Weather might be a factor, as well, as it will be subfreezing as an arctic blast will move in. That will add still more factors, as both teams will need to adjust. 

This one is very tight, and both teams have a serious chance. But until they are dethroned, my bet is with the established champions until proven otherwise.

My pick: New England