NFL 2018-19 Playoffs - Divisional Round Preview

Saturday Games

AFC

Indianapolis Colts (10-6)

v.

Kansas City Chiefs   (12-4)

Indianapolis at Kansas City  

The Chiefs earned the top seed in the AFC, and they did so by being the most impressive team in the conference. They had the hottest, most explosive offense in the league, and their young quarterback is clearly a rising star. Those are all of the undeniable good things that Kansas City brings to these playoffs, and as long as they survive, the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Arrowhead Stadium. But  -and you knew there was going to be that questioning "but," right? - they are still the Chiefs, and that leads to question marks. Why? Because, to be honest, I am not entirely convinced that these Chiefs are for real, or are good enough to overcome the demons of their past. Many expected KC to be very good, and to compete for Super Bowl titles, as far back as the early 1990's. They had the NFC style powerhouse team that seemed to be the requirement for winning titles back then, but somehow, managed not even to reach a single Super Bowl, even with Joe Montana at the helm. If you cannot get to the Super Bowl when you have a loaded team and Montana at quarterback, then something is wrong. Then, in 1995 and again in 1997, the Chiefs had excellent teams and enjoyed 13-3 records, good enough both times for this team to earn the number one seed. Each time, they lost in their very first playoff game. Then, they started off 9-0 in 2003, and again finished 13-3, good enough this time for a playoff bye and the number two seed. The result? Another one and done deal. Years later, Andy Reid came along, and the Chiefs once again enjoyed successful regular season, but limited success in the playoffs. That includes a season when they earned a playoff bye two seasons ago, and another season when they had a 10-game winning streak to end the regular season, and then shutout the Texans in Houston, only to once again fall short, this time to New England up at Foxboro. The season before that, the Chiefs owned a 28-point lead over the Colts - twice! - and still found a way to lose! Which brings me to their specific history against the Colts, because if there is one team that has delivered the most crushing losses to the Chiefs, it would likely be Indianapolis. Yes, there was the comeback game, which remains the second biggest comeback in NFL playoff history to date, just four points shy of the legendary Bills comeback against the Oilers back in the 1992-93 season. But the Colts always seem to have Kansas City's number. They did back in 1995, when they barely scraped by into the playoffs, but then got hot. They were prohibitive underdogs when they visited Arrowhead to take on the 13-3 Chiefs, a team that many believed were the best, most complete overall team in the NFL. But not on that day, as the Chiefs were bounced out of the playoffs by the upstart Colts. That seemed to begin the trend of the Chiefs being one of the seeming elite teams at least in the AFC, but getting quickly knocked out in the postseason, something that happened in 1995, 1997, 2003, and 2016, and which I strongly suspect can, and perhaps will, happen again this year, in 2018. It very well might, because history is on the side of the Colts, who also seem to have all the momentum needed to get through a match like this. Historically, the Colts beat the Chiefs in every playoff meeting between the two clubs. As the lowest seed in the AFC, the Colts managed to top the number one seed Chiefs in KC in 1995. Years later, the Chiefs managed to win a playoff bye again in 2003, but they again fell in a 38-31 shootout to the Colts, who this time were led by quarterback legend Peyton Manning. In the 2006 season, the Chiefs visited the Super Bowl-bound Colts, and lost convincingly, 23-8. Then, in 2013, came that epic comeback at Indianapolis, as the Chiefs lost a 28-point lead. Of course, all of that is in the past, but here's the thing: the Colts look like the team with all of the momentum. Sure, KC looked unbeatable early in the season, and still looked ridiculously good heading into that Monday Night showdown against the Rams in Los Angeles. But that was the first of three losses in a span of four games, and the Chiefs absolutely had to beat the Raiders in the regular season finale to clinch a division title that had seemed to be their all season long. Yes, they beat the Raiders convincingly, but they looked vulnerable in the weeks before that. And they will not be facing a weak team like Oakland this time. Clearly, the Colts showed in Tennessee that they are running on all cylinders, and that is why I expect them to be 5-0 in playoff meetings against the Chiefs following this weekend's big meeting.

My pick: Indianapolis 

NFC

Dallas Cowboys (10-6)

at

Los Angeles Rams  (13-3)

Dallas at L.A. Rams 

This is a tough game to call. On the one hand, the Rams have played very well all season, have one of the best and most dangerous offenses in the league, and have home field advantage. However, the Cowboys have won eight of their last nine games, with most of them under the pressure of having their backs to the wall, needing to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. They were not as consistent as the Rams were throughout the season, yet Dallas ended the season looking like they were peaking at the right time. Meanwhile, the Rams suddenly showed some vulnerabilities, particularly when facing tough, physical teams, which Dallas happens to be. The Rams offense looked very pedestrian in a late-season visit to Chicago, and they then lost at home to the Eagles. One thing I am sure of: don't expect this Rams team to put up 40 or 50 points, like they have at points this season. The Cowboys have a tough defense, and can and likely will play the clock with a ball control offense to try and keep the Rams dangerous "O" off the field. I give the Cowboys a very decent chance at pulling off what most people would believe to be an upset. If this game were to be played in Dallas, with the way both teams have been playing lately, I would not hesitate to pick in favor of the 'Boys. As it is, however, this game is in Los Angeles, which gives the hometown team an edge.. Indeed, these two teams are evenly matched, as the Rams offense can test and will themselves be tested by the Cowboys defense. And the Rams defense will likely show some of the vulnerabilities against a tough, grinding, physical Dallas offense. It really could go either way, but in the end, I believe that the Rams explosive offense will have just enough flashes of brilliance to get past Dallas in order to advance, although I also suspect that it will be a close game.

My pick: Seattle

Sunday Games

AFC

Los Angeles Chargers (12-4)

v.

New England Patriots (11-5)

L.A. Chargers at New England Patriots 

This has kind of been a decent rivalry over the course of the careers of the two star quarterbacks on two solid teams. They have met many times, including a couple of times in the playoffs. But I stress that this has been a decent rivalry, and not a great rivalry, because the fact of the matter is that a great rivalry features two teams that can and have beaten one another, and showed a bit of back and forth. The two franchises met in consecutive postseasons following the 2006 and 2007 regular seasons. At the time, the Chargers appeared to finally be emerging as a serious contender in the AFC, having  earned the top seed in 2006 with a 14-2 record, and then knocking off the defending Super Bowl champion Colts in 2007. But the Chargers lost to the New England Patriots in both contests, even though they fought hard and kept the games close. In the first one, New England edged the Chargers, 24-21, although running back LaDainian Tomlinson made significant headlines after the game by declaring that the Patriots, and particularly head coach Bill Belichick, were "classless." In the 2007 meeting, the Chargers fought hard and looked like they might hand the undefeated Patriots their first loss of the season, denying them a chance to reach the Super Bowl. Indeed, the Chargers were down 14-12, but within a field goal of possibly taking the lead. But the Pats scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter to go up 21-12, and they never looked back, winning the AFC title, although they would eventually lose to the Giants in the Super Bowl. The Chargers remained competitive for a few seasons thereafter, but they never came as close to reaching the big game with Philip Rivers as they had that season, when they made it to the AFC title game. At least, that is, until this season, with the Chargers looking better than they have looked in many years. Really, the Chargers have what appears to be the complete package. They have a tough defense, as evidenced by that grueling, physical performance against the Ravens. And they also have an offense that can play patient, physical, smashmouth football, but which can also be extremely dangerous and explosive. But this is the New England Patriots we are talking about, and the game will be played at Foxboro. That does not mean that the Pats are unbeatable, but they still have Tom Brady at quarterback, and coach Bill Belichick has had extra time to prepare for this game, and the Patriots are playing at home, where they went undefeated during the regular season. Remember, the Patriots have qualified for an unprecdented seven straight AFC title games, and they have done so for a reason. They hardly looked like the most consistent winner all season this year, yet here they are, hosting a divisional round game as the AFC's second seed. It simply does not do to underestimate them, because they have a defense that can play tough when needed, and an offense that can also play physically tough and wear out opponents. Just ask the Falcons from the Super Bowl two seasons ago. or numerous opponents since. And you know that Belichick will have his team prepared. If the Chargers want to make this a real rivalry, and if they want to be taken as serious contenders this year, then they need to find a way to finally beat the Patriots. This is a golden opportunity in that regard. However, one cannot help but be impressed by how consistent New England has been for so many years, and the fact that they fought so hard to earn home field advantage for this game tells you something about how serious they are, and how determined their intention to stay unbeaten at home. So, my guess is that the Pats find a way to win again.

My pick: New England

NFC

Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)

v.

New Orleans Saints (13-3)

Philadelphia at New Orleans 

The Eagles showed that you can never underestimate the heart - and experience - of a champion. There was a reason why they went all the way to the Super Bowl, and beat the favored Patriots once there, last year. And there is a reason why they won their last three regular season games, and five of their last six regular season games overall, while having their backs up against the wall with almost no margin for error. That is the same reason why they wound up knocking off the Bears, albeit barely. Luck was a factor, as that ball that bounced out of the goal posts denying the Bears a win could just as easily have bounced slightly differently and split the uprights. But Philly won, and they seem to have luck on their side. Now, they take on the New Orleans Saints, the team that earned the top seed, and which had the most impressive overall regular season of any team. Many feel that the Saints are the most complete team in the league, top to bottom. And while the Saints do not have the same very recent championship experience that the Eagles do, they nonetheless have a head coach and a veteran quarterback who have won the Super Bowl, and know what it takes to win it all. The Saints came close last year to reaching the NFC title game in Philadelphia, but were denied due to a miracle play by the Vikings. Clearly, that rubbed New Orleans the wrong way, and they have capitalized on most opportunities since, only really losing two meaningful games all season (the regular season finale had most of the starters sitting, as the team could not benefit or lose ground in terms of playoff positioning). Veteran quarterback Drew Brees is not getting any younger, and he understands that this might be his last, best chance to earn a second ring. These two teams met earlier this season, and the Saints walloped the Eagles, 48-7, in New Orleans. But the Eagles made adjustments, and seemed to right the ship after that disaster, as they began winning more consistently. They have won all but one game since, and they were competitive in that loss. So, it is safe to say that both teams are different than they were when they met. Clearly, the stakes are much higher, as well. I would not mind seeing the Saints win this game, as it would be nice to see Drew Brees earn a second Super Bowl title and perhaps ride off into the sunset, as Peyton Manning did a few years ago. But the way that the Eagles are playing, I cannot underestimate how much they seem like a stubborn championship team that refuses to lose, no matter what. That is why I am picking them for the upset here in this one.

My pick: Philadelphia