Today, there really is only one major topic to talk about. Obviously, that would be Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
This has been building up for some time. Putin had moved a huge amount of Russian military forces and equipment along the border with Ukraine. He also received much condemnation from countries around the world. He defended it, claiming initially that they were simply conducting military exercises. But it was obvious that something more was up. Indeed, the world seemed to warn Putin that a Russian invasion would have consequences. Severe economic sanctions are set to be imposed on Russia, and there was still hope
Well, it has happened.
Last night, Putin announced special military operations in Ukraine. In other words, Russian military intervention, or an invasion.
For a while, I was quite skeptical of the reports from western media and government sources, since we kept hearing about the "imminent" invasion that was inevitable. I had kind of half expected Putin to be playing an elaborate game of chicken, to see how united western alliances would be. It did not seem certain to me that he actually would go ahead and commit his own troops to a war that was widely unpopular and has been nearly universally condemned by other world leaders.
But I can admit when I am wrong. Putin has been intervening in other countries for a long time now. He got Russia involved in Georgia. He intervened in the civil war in Syria. And he has obviously been involved in Ukraine for many years now already. They outright took Crimea, annexing it. I know that this bothers some people, although a part of me, understanding that 90 percent of the population there was apparently Russian, and that this region was historically Russian, was not so bothered by this.
Now, here we are again. It feels increasingly obvious that Putin means to test the West, and indeed much of the rest of the world, with his actions. And this is not justified simply because of western hypocrisy, since the west - and especially the United States - itself has a very long history of involving itself rather unnecessarily in the conflicts of other countries, or perhaps even creating these conflicts. All of this is part of the reason why I was so cynical about what seemingly were exaggerated reports about Russian military aggression. But then, he took the plunge last night.
For the first time since the breakup of the former Yugoslavia, there is a major land war in Europe. Russian military forces right now are in Ukraine as I write this. Obviously, it has dominated the news cycle on this day, with everyone speculating on what will happen, and what it all means. Nobody is sure what we can expect. The only thing that we really know is that no western leader is ready to commit their own troops to help Ukraine, because such an action likely would literally begin World War III. That is not an exaggeration. So that in turn means that Ukraine appears to be on it's own. That at least is the unspoken, but very real, message. Many sympathies in other countries are with Ukraine. That includes all of the Polish people I have come to know through my Polish girlfriend. For very good reason, I think, they distrust Russia, and particularly Putin.
Obviously, I am no expert. Hell, I was not even sure that Putin would go ahead with the invasion, thinking that he might just be playing games and testing the waters, but not yet ready to actually plunge into a conflict that could potentially grow much bigger and far more serious quickly. For what it is worth, here is what I think will happen: Ukrainian forces will resist, but Russia's much bigger and generally superior military will ultimately win. The two republics that Putin is demanding independence for will gain nominal independence, but will most likely vote on whether to join Russia, much like we saw in Crimea. My guess is that they will indeed vote to become a part of Russia, and that Russia will annex these territories outright. As for the other parts of Ukraine, either a puppet state will be implemented - and the current Ukrainian government be forced into exile in the process - or perhaps even the rather large republic will be split even more, with perhaps a western Ukraine and an eastern Ukraine, and very possibly, both will be puppet states. If I am wrong about those two regions in eastern Ukraine hugging the Russian border outright being annexed by Russia eventually, then they also will become effectively puppet states. I am not saying that this is what I want to happen, by the way. Only what I think will happen, which is an entirely different thing. And the world will protest, but will let it happen, much like they already allowed the annexation of Crimea to become a reality.
My own experiences are limited in this region. Back in 2019, when my girlfriend, my son, and I took a trip to Europe in the summer, we actually went into Ukraine for a day, mostly to visit L'viv, a western city close to the Polish border which is considered to be the cultural capital of Ukraine. Mostly, we went at my insistence, because I have always wanted to visit more eastern Europe, particularly countries like Russia and Ukraine, with such a different language and culture. That was not Russia, but it felt much more Russian than anyplace I had been to before. L'viv is a beautiful city, albeit a bit run down. What would be major tourist sites in Europe with a lot of advertisements and a major tourist industry were, instead, mostly old and run down. You could see that it is beautiful, and could be more so. Someday, perhaps many years from now, depending on how this war goes and when it recovers, the city could become a much bigger tourist destination, although obviously there will basically be no tourism there on any major level for a while to come.
While I was impressed by our visit to L'viv, and glad that we made the trip, it was not the only aspect of the trip where the impression stayed with me. When I first went to Poland in 2013, it felt very different from the western European nations that I had known, and noticeably less affluent. But this was almost nothing compared with the obvious differences going from Poland to Ukraine It was hard not to notice how different it felt, going from Poland - a member of the European Union that has grown noticeably wealthier from the old, Communist days - to Ukraine, which at the time was the poorest country in Europe. Several times, the bus had to slow down and wait to pass horse drawn carriages, and these were not on the roads as some kind of touristy gimmick. The villages and houses looked more run down. In Poland, one thing that I noticed in many villages, including the one where my girlfriend and her family are from, is that the old houses often were kind of placed on the side, with much larger and more impressive houses now serving as the main residence. The old house, which was tiny, now serves almost as a mixture of a wood shop and barn in their case. Many other properties also had the two houses in place, the old one, and the newer one. In Ukraine, they still only had the original houses, and they were generally significantly smaller than those just across the border in Poland.
What I remember also was the border crossing, which was unlike any other border crossing that I have been involved with. We were stopped on both sides, both going into Ukraine, and then coming back. We were there for hours each time, and the drivers were aware of this, and had made sure that we left early to get through earlier, so that we actually could and would get a good day of visiting L'viv in. There were armed personnel on both sides wearing paramilitary gear and holding assault weapons, something that I had seen in and around New York City shortly after September 11th. Whether or not the guns were just for show, as in New York or if they were loaded and ready for action if needed, I could not tell.
In short, it was tense. The only thing even remotely comparable in terms of border crossings was when my son and I crossed from Nogales, Arizona into Nogales, Mexico. But there were no border personnel who were holding assault rifles or dressed in camouflage. But the immediate differences in affluence, and the waiting time, was somewhat similar, at least coming back into the United States. But the Polish-Ukraine border crossing was slow going in both directions. Heading into Ukraine in the morning, there were soldiers maybe a kilometer or so in, also holding assault weapons. You really were reminded that Ukraine was kind of a war zone, even if the active part of the war had been largely minimized at that point. Also, there was palpable tension on the bus once we actually started driving in and passing homes and villages. While there was quite a bit of small talk and conversation among the passengers before we actually reached the border, absolutely no one spoke for maybe thirty or so minutes. Again, you could almost feel the tension. That in and of itself was a unique experience for me.
So on this day, given what has happened, I will publish again my thoughts about crossing the border, and our visit to Ukraine back in the summer of 2019. I will not add as many pictures, because this is not about tourism, although there is one picture from L'viv which I did keep. This was when I saw toilet paper with Putin's image on it. I would imagine that this might sell particularly well in Ukraine right now. Otherwise, I also posted a picture of the same border crossing that we apparently took, which my girlfriend found and confirmed was the same one that we used. The picture was taken earlier today, and shows already the mass migration out of Ukraine, which is suddenly a country at the center of a major war, the first major land war that Europe has seen since the breakup of the former Yugoslavia, and possibly the biggest one now since World War II. Here were some of my thoughts (again, I did not simply repost the whole thing, but just added the most relevant parts relating to the tension I just mentioned) on the border crossing from our admittedly brief visit to Ukraine back in August of 2019:
I can only post a few pictures of our visit to L'viv, Ukraine yesterday, because the internet is unusually slow so far this morning. Pictures were taking too long to upload, and so I will return to this later with more pics from L'viv specifically, and from our day in Ukraine, more generally.
Some of the places that we visited in L'viv included Lychakiv Cemetery, which was, strangely enough, I thought, the first place that we visited. We also visited several old churches, the Old Town, and the L'viv Opera, which was quite lovely.
First, though, it was a very early start. I had set the alarm for 4:30, as we had to be at the bus stop by 5 a.m.. As it turned out, we ended up being almost ten minutes late. But, we got on the bus. It was still dark and cool, which I always enjoy early in the morning like this.
Part of the reason why we needed to leave so early was that the border between Poland and the Ukraine is not a joke. On our trip through the Bieszczady a few days ago, we saw the Polish border patrol several times, reminding me of the American border patrol presence near the Mexican border. We took our trip to L'viv on a Wednesday, because Tuesday was booked up. The tour guide informed us that Wednesday and Friday are the quiet days crossing the border. Even then, it can take up to three to four hours to cross.
I have crossed between Canada and the United States numerous times, and my experience has always been that they check you in the country that you are entering. It was the same at the American-Mexican border. But here, we were checked by both sides, both times. The Ukrainian border patrol was wearing camouflage and assault rifles, and we saw some guards standing at a post very near the border, looking very much like prison guards on watch duty. Again, this border crossing was no joke. Remember, Ukraine was at war just a few years ago, and lost Crimea to the Russians. While Poland was not involved, there have long been tensions and hard feelings still exist between the two peoples. Many Polish people shared stories of horrors perpetrated by the Ukrainians both before and towards the end of World War II, and even after. The Ukrainians, though, also have stories of horrors perpetrated by the Polish. Each side has committed atrocities against one another. Hard feelings and suspicions remain, and have never really been fully resolved.
Just after getting back last night, I posted just a few photos of our trip. My brother wrote that I had crossed into the country where our grandfather on my mom's side, as well as some other family members, had lived the earliest years of their lives. That is true, although it should be noted that the borders have changed dramatically since then. At the time when they were living there, in fact, the part of Ukraine that we visited, including L'viv, was still a part of Poland, although Poland itself was a part of the German, Russian, and Austro-Hungarian empires.
Still, it was a thrill to visit this place, and see the current Ukraine for the first time. The lettering on signs included letters that were so different than anywhere else that I have been to, and so even this was a thrill for me.
Below is the picture of that same border crossing today, with a line of exodus on the Ukrainian side where you cannot even see the end of the line of cars trying to escape into Poland:
Here is the one picture from our visit to L'viv that I added for this post. I did not add all of my thoughts, nor obviously all of my pictures, from our visit to western Ukraine on that day. But this picture speaks for itself, and reveals how Ukrainians view Russia's leader, Vladimir Putin. Putin's face is featured prominently on toilet paper sold in L'viv. We had heard about this, and I could not resist taking a picture, even though I didn't want to actually buy it.
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