I wrote most of this prior to the start of the season, but never quite got around to finishing it. Nevertheless, I am leaving what parts of the blog written then unaltered, because that was a more honest assessment of what my thinking was before the season started. Who knew that injuries would play such a huge roe in the fortunes of one team in particular?
The NFC West right now looks like a two team race, with one team clearly seeming to have the inside track to win the division and quite possibly, a lot more. Yes, the Rams look awesome, and should be the class of this otherwise weak division. The 49ers are improving with their hot new quarterback. But despite all of the enthusiasm and even some predictions that they would wind up in the Super Bowl, I expect them to have some growing pains this season. Yet, with the Seahawks and Cardinals likely to contend for cellar dweller status this season, the Rams and 49ers will likely pad their records against those two weaker teams.
Here's the breakdown of my predictions, and why I went the way that I did with these predictions):
1. Los Angeles Rams (projected division winner) - Let's face it: it does not take much bravery to predict that this team will win the division. I know that I did not expect them to be quite as successful as they were last season, but with that success, coupled with the offseason pick-ups that they had, it would be mad to predict any other team winning the NFC West. The Rams have a ton of talent, alright, and they seem to be capable of winning games with both their offense and their defense. After an evenly fought match at Oakland, they wore down and exploited the Raiders by the final quarter. And then, they completely embarrassed the Cardinals. With Arizona and Seattle looking weak an vulnerable, and San Francisco needing some time to develop into a contender, that means that the Rams look capable of running roughshod over the NFC West and, quite possibly, over the rest of the NFC. Yes, this is a trendy team to pick as a Super Bowl favorite, and if things continue going the way that they are going right now, it would not be out of the realm of possibility to predict this team to go all the way and win the Super Bowl. Indeed, that is how good they are, and I have no hesitation picking this team to win the division, and quite possibly to be the top team in the NFC for the playoffs.
2. San Francisco 49ers (projected second place) - Last season, the 49ers started off miserably, losing their first nine games. Then, they played my Giants, and completely dominated them. San Fran had lost all of those previous games, but they had fought hard and made the other teams work for the wins. But once they started winning, watch out! And a few weeks after the Giants game, they acquired Jimmy Garoppolo, and suddenly looked unstoppable. They were winning games, and looking like a team that might have made the playoffs, had their winning come just a bit earlier. They beat three playoff bound teams in the final three consecutive weeks, beating Jacksonville and the Rams convincingly. So, people went crazy with enthusiasm, and their were all sorts of wild predictions for what San Fran might do this season. It seemed that for some, the sky was the limit. Some seemed almost ready to make Super Bowl reservations. But hold the phone for just a bit. The 49ers still need a bit of work to make their defense one of the elite units. And yes, Garoppolo looked great last season, but this is not the first time that 49ers fans have gone nuts over the prospects of a seemingly hot new quarterback that might make people forget Montana and Young. Kaepernick was only the most recent quarterback of the future for this team to largely flop in the end. Yes, Garoppolo looked good, but let's see how he handles things when he is really tested. Right now, he is an unproven quantity, having played only a handful of games. The pressures of trying to lead a team through an entire season, and trying to get that team to the playoffs, are an entirely different ball of wax. I suspect that San Francisco continues to improve, but likely falls short of the playoffs. That said, they are in a fairly weak division, with Seattle and Arizona looking like wins. But the Rams are very tough, and again, the 49ers have some tough games coming their way at Kansas City, at Green Bay, at Tampa Bay, against Denver, and those do not even include the two games against the Rams. So, while they should continue to improve significantly, and even perhaps contend for a playoff berth, it would not be surprising if they fall a bit short of that. But this team certainly at least appears to be heading in the right direction.
2. Seattle Seahawks (projected third place) - At times, the Seahawks have appeared to be not very different than they have been for numerous seasons now. Then, there are other times when they appear very different when you can see the fresh cuts from the butchery made during the off-season. Still, after five full weeks of NFL play, Seattle does not look nearly as bad as expected. What did I expect? Admittedly, playing in division that I figured would have at least two solid playoff teams, I saw the Seahawks having a terrible season something in the vicinity of four or five wins. That still might happen, although they are playing tougher than that thus far. This is a team that barely lost to Denver on opening weekend, and very nearly defeated the unbeaten Rams last weekend. A few plays go differently in those games, and the Seahawks might be sitting pretty at 4-1 right now. The only other loss this team had was to the Bears in Chicago, and that is hardly anything to be ashamed about this season. So, although it is too late for me to change my picks and alter the projected standings while feeling good about myself, I suspect that Seattle is better than I expected, and that I might not have given them adequate credit. They may or may not be a playoff team, but this is nevertheless an apparently solid team still, and should finish in second place in this division. Whether or not that is good enough to make it, time will tell. (Note: this is the one projection that I wrote very recently, after five full games have already been played. Although none of the other projections was altered from earlier this year, I cannot take full credit for "seeing" how much better the Seahawks would be than I had expected heading into this season).
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1. Arizona Cardinals (projected last place) - For several seasons now, I have overestimated how good the Cardinals could and would be. I kept getting burned by expecting big things from this team, but that will not happen this season. They were disappointing last season, and clearly I was way off in predicting them to win the division. So this year, I am going the other extreme and predicting this franchise to be the last place team in the division once again. Their offense looked dismal often times last season, and looks just awful so far this season, as well. And their defense right now does not look very special, either. It is difficult to see them winning against either the Rams or the 49ers, either. Things continue to unravel for the Cardinals, who as a franchise, are actually kind of used to this thing. It looks like they better continue to get used to it, to boot, because they have shown almost no reason for fans, or anyone else, for that matter, to get excited about their prospects. Hard to predict anything but a last place finish for this team.
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