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NFC Championship Game:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-5) at Green Bay Packers (14-3)
Like the Bills and Chiefs, the Bucs and Packers met earlier this season. That meeting was early this season in Tampa Bay, with the Packers sporting an impressive, undefeated 4-0 record. Not surprisingly, the Packers were the favorites, despite being the road team. However, the Buccaneers won that one decisively, pounding the Packers, 38-10, handing them their first loss of the season. It was also the worst loss that the Packers suffered this season, by far.
However, also like with the Bills and the Chiefs, that game likely will have little bearing for this game. First of all, this one is the NFC Championship Game. It will be played in the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, where it will be below freezing, and with a distinct possibility of snow, which could have an impact on the approach by both teams.
Of course, we know that a little snow or cold weather will not bother some members of the Buccaneers, particularly Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, both of whom enjoyed championship seasons together up in New England, which is not exactly known to be a tropical paradise during this time of the year. As for the rest of the team, I actually suspect that it should not be the deciding factor in this game.
Both teams have explosive offenses. Green Bay had literally the most explosive offense in the league, while Tampa’s was not far behind. The Packers averaged almost 32 points per game. The Buccaneers averaged just under 31 points per game. So, like with the Chiefs and the Bills, we likely will see a ton of points scored here.
As far as defenses are concerned, I am actually more impressed with Tampa Bay’s defense, at least entering this game. True, they will have their hands full against Aaron Rodgers and that dangerous Packer offense, and they sure cannot expect to shut them down almost completely, as they did in the first meeting. How good was that defensive effort by Tampa Bay in that first meeting? Consider this: other than that game, only the Vikings managed to hold the Packers to under 24 points, and they allowed 22 points in a game that they managed to beat Green Bay in. But the Buccaneers made the Packers offense look pedestrian, limiting them to a measly 10 points. It is safe to say that if Tampa Bay somehow manages to shut down that Packer offense as completely this time around, they will win.
However, it seems unlikely that the Bucs defense will be so good as to limit Green Bay to just one touchdown and one field goal. No, I suspect that the Pack will score more points. That said, I do not expect the Packers to have an offensive explosion, or to constantly light up the boards. Tampa Bay will play them tough, and will give themselves a chance.
And here is my surprise for the weekend: I suspect that Tom Brady is highly motivated and will remain cool, calm, and collected, and lead his offense effectively throughout this game. He is a very driven individual, and can, has, and will again handle the enormous pressure that he will face. With him leading the Bucs offense, and with a defense that should play very tough to make Tampa’s offensive production stand, I will go on record here and predict an upset. Yes, the Bucs will become the road warriors of these NFC playoffs, as they will win their third straight road game in this postseason to reach the Super Bowl, and give Tom Brady a crack at what would be truly amazing history: a shot at yet another Super Bowl ring two weeks from now.
My pick: Tampa Bay
AFC Championship Game:
Buffalo Bills (15-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
These were the two best teams in the AFC, although that was not necessarily obvious for much of the season. After all, when the Steelers started the season off on a tear, winning their first 11 games and getting off to the best start in franchise history, I had assumed that they would quite possibly be the top seed, and maybe even the team to beat in the AFC. But they seemed to inexplicably collapse after that hot start, losing five of their final six games, including their one and only playoff game. Only one other time can I remember seeing a team look so good for a huge stretch of the earlier regular season, and then collapse towards the end: the 1986 New York Jets. They raced off to a 10-1 start, and some people were beginning to talk about the possibility of a New York – New York Super Bowl, as the Giants were doing very well at the time, and would in fact wind up winning their first ever Super Bowl title that season. But as for the Jets, they lost their final five regular season games, backing into the playoffs. There, they managed to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, but then lost in overtime to the Browns the following week in the divisional round, as they entered a period of long decline.
But I digress. This weekend is about the two best teams in the AFC. Technically, and rather surprisingly, the Bills had a higher rated offense than the Chiefs did. Buffalo averaged over 30 points per game, while the Chiefs averaged just under 29. So, you have to figure that this will be a pretty high scoring game.
Yes, the Chiefs feel like they are where everyone expected them to be, as the top seed, and with the status as the team to beat in the AFC. They are the defending champions, and enjoy more playoff experience than any other team in the NFL at this point in time.
Yet, there are questions marks, and many of them revolve around star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. How is he, in terms of his health? As of right now, he is in concussion protocol. Yet, Brett Favre pointed out that this will be a big test for the NFL, as the Chiefs will obviously be tempted to play him for the entirety of the game. Whether or not he plays extensively (or at all, but it seems that he will) is a huge question, and may go a long way in determining how this game plays out. Obviously, the Bills chances would seem to improve dramatically if a healthy Mahomes is not playing at 100 percent.
This weekend is about the two best teams in the AFC. Technically, and rather surprisingly, the Bills had a higher rated offense than the Chiefs did. Buffalo averaged over 30 points per game, while the Chiefs averaged just under 29. So, you have to figure that this will be a pretty high scoring game.
That said, the Chiefs have a fairly solid defense. This season, KC’s defense has held their opponents to 20 points or less 10 times, including last week’s playoff contest against the Browns. That is pretty impressive, and it includes the first meeting between these two teams earlier this season, which the Chiefs won in Buffalo, 26-17. However, I think that it is safe to say that the outcome of that particular game should have no bearing on this game, since both teams are likely different teams than they were at that stage in the season. Also, the stakes are much, much higher, so you can probably expect both teams to take some chances. After all, they are playing for a shot to reach the Super Bowl with this game.
Home field advantage could be key, although ironically, the two losses that the Chiefs suffered this season were both at home. The last one was a game that was meaningless to the Chiefs, as they had already clinched home field advantage, and rested their starters. The first loss was at home to the Raiders, but the Raiders had to score a ton of points in order to pull it off.
Mahomes is slated to play, having cleared concussion protocol. But can he stay healthy? Will he be 100 percent? How much will the pressure from Buffalo’s defense bother him?
Those are questions that will be answered. In the end, I think that the Bills will play impressively, and have a serious shot at pulling off this upset.
Yet, my gut keeps telling me that this is KC’s year, and that they will emerge, once again, as the AFC’s representatives to the Super Bowl for a second year in a row. Right now, I still feel that they are the best team in the league, frankly.
My pick: Kansas City
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