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Saturday Games
Indianapolis at Buffalo – Right now, you would be hard pressed to find a team that is hotter entering these playoffs than the Buffalo Bills. They have won six straight games and look great on offense, having scored just a ton of points in their last three games. Their defense has been playing quite solidly, as well. They have not allowed anyone to score more than 26 points on them in six games, and have held their opponents to under 20 points in four of their past six games. Indeed, they seem to be entering this game with just a ton of momentum. The Colts, meanwhile, have been impressive themselves. They do not have an elite offense like the Bills seem to, but they rank solidly on both offense and defense. I think the Colts will try to slow the game down a bit, and will attempt to take a physical, ball control approach for this game. It could work. However, it feels like the Bills are playing at such a high level, that they will likely be able to overcome this, or pretty much anything else that the Colts throw at them. The weather is supposed to be cold, but relatively mild for the Buffalo area for this time of the year, so that should not be too much of a factor. Still, my suspicion is that the Bills are just on too much of a roll, and that they will not slow that down this weekend. This team has been hungry for a division title, and a home playoff game, for so long, and they caught fire in pursuit of those goals this season. Now that this golden opportunity is here, it is hard to picture them squandering it. Look for the Bills to win, and most likely, for them to have this game well in hand by some point in the second half. My pick: Buffalo
LA Rams at Seattle – Two division rivals square off again. These two teams were mostly neck and neck for most of this year, although the Seahawks seemed to pull away right at the end, largely because of a small Rams collapse. Their loss to the previously winless Jets in particular proved costly. Yet, the Rams fought hard in Seattle, but lost the last meeting, which cost them any chance at the division title. But here we are, with both teams meeting once again. Funny how things work out. The Rams left it all on the field last time, and just barely lost in Seattle. Now, they come in as underdogs, and with the revenge factor on their side. The Seahawks enjoy the privilege of home field advantage, which usually can be very significant in the Emerald City, with the 12th Man. There will be no crowd this time around, though, obviously. What concerns me with the Seahawks is that their offense seems to have slowed down a bit as the season wore on. They were a scoring machine, seemingly explosive and unstoppable earlier in the season, and then, they kind of just slowed down, and no longer stood out. Not a good thing, when you are about to host the number one ranked defense in the league. Still, the ‘Hawks won that last meeting, mostly because their defense has been stepping up in a big way. We should note here that the Rams have struggled offensively this season. This team is not billed as the second coming of the “Greatest Show on Turf,” as they were two seasons ago. So, this is a very intriguing match-up, and my own suspicion is that the Seahawks are actually ripe for an upset. However, they still remain my pick to win this one, even with their vulnerabilities, as I expect their defense to step up in a big way once again, like they did last time, and for Russell Wilson’s veteran leadership to just pull the offense through. My pick: Seattle
Tampa Bay at Washington – Of all the roads teams playing this weekend, the one that seems the surest thing for a win would be Tampa Bay. These two teams did not meet this season, but it feels like the Bucs hold almost every advantage going into this game, except for home field advantage. How much that will be a factor is difficult to say. The weather should not be too much of a factor, so that helps Tampa. The Bucs have one of the most dangerous offenses in the league, and they have veteran leadership at the top. It is fair to say that Tom Brady knows how to manage an offense in such a big game. Still, they are taking on a tough Washington defense that ranks among the elite units in the league. But I expect the Buccaneers to be able to get some points. On the flip side, Tampa’s defense is also one of the better units, and they should give Washington a tough time. Still, Alex Smith has brought some efficiency to that offense, and that should help their cause. Overall, it just feels like the Buccaneers are the better overall team, and that is why they are my pick to take this game on the road. My pick: Tampa Bay
Sunday Games
Baltimore at Tennessee – It feels like these two teams meet every few years in the playoffs, does it not? Ever since their first meeting in 2000, they seem to meet up somewhere along the line in the postseason every few years. They have met four times in the postseason since 2000, and are split, with each team winning two of the meetings. The Titans have home field advantage in this one, and their offense ranks as one of the best in the league. These two teams met earlier in the season, and to their credit, the Titans won that one. However, the Ravens were going through some issues and hit a slump in that particular stretch. It feels like they are a completely different team right now. They are playing like they are absolutely on fire, having not only won five straight games to storm into these playoffs, but winning four of those games in blowout fashion. They have only missed reaching 30 points once during that stretch. Their defense is one of the best in the league, ranking among the very best for many years now. It feels like they are an entirely different team than they were when these two teams last met, and frankly, it also feels like they are the better of the two teams set to take the field in Nashville on Sunday. Have to go with the visiting team, as they feel like one of the best teams in the AFC right now, and the kind of team that nobody wants to have to play in this postseason. My pick: Baltimore
Chicago at New Orleans – The Saints went through a slump a few weeks ago that had many, myself included, questioning them. But the offense caught fire in their last two games. With veteran quarterback Drew Brees at the helm, they should be in good shape, even if the Bears have a tough defense. These two teams met earlier this season, with the Saints winning on the road at Soldier Field in overtime. They did not light up the board, but they won. While Da Bears defense can be tough, they have had lapses when facing elite offense, which the Saints have. My main concern for Chicago, though, is their offense, which has struggled and even looked abysmal at times, and for long stretches. They were held to under 20 points or less seven times this season, or just one game shy of half of their games. With a tough and tight Saints defense, that feels like a real liability. It is also the reason why this game feels like it should be a relatively easy win for the team from the Big Easy. My pick: New Orleans
Cleveland at Pittsburgh – The good news for the Browns is that they finally beat the Steelers for the first time in a long time just last weekend. The bad news is that they just barely did that, and with home field advantage. It has been a very long time since the Browns managed to knock off the Steelers at Heinz Field, where they have not won since all the way back in 2003. That is not a nice statistic to think about if you are a fan of Cleveland. The Browns offense has caught fire at times this season, and can be an explosive unit, but they also lack consistency. Their defense, on the other hand, can be a liability. As for the Steelers, they raced off to an incredible, perfect 11-0 start, but have since lost four of their final five games of the season, dropping from the top seed to the third seed in the AFC in the process. They are more vulnerable than they have been in some time, and indeed, that loss to the Browns last week might have some psychological edges for the Browns. Still, the Steelers always seem to play well against this particular division foe, and they still have both a solid offense and defense. While my heart admittedly would like to see the Browns win this game, my head tells me that they won’t. Hope I’m wrong, but I have to go with the home team in this one. My pick: Pittsburgh
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