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Week 17 Preview
Wow! So here we are, the final week of this regular season, already! As usual during my adult years, it went fast This might have been the fastest season yet, at least for me. It felt in some ways like it just started, yet here we are, at the finish line, at least for the regular season, in any case. After that, it will be the postseason, and some call that a whole new season. I tend to agree, especially in the NFL of the 21st century, which has placed an emphasis on parody, and largely gotten it. Twice, we have seen 9-7 teams reach the Super Bowl, and once, we saw one win. We have seen numerous teams win three wildcard teams win three playoff games en route to the Super Bowl, and even two (Pittsburgh in 2005, the NY Giants in 2007) who won three road games, and then won the Super Bowl, too.
But I digress. Back to the regular season weekend finale.
Yes, this season has not just been the fastest, but also the weirdest. I mean, let’s face it: this was a very unusual regular season, one affected quite a bit by Covid-19 and lockdowns. It altered the actual schedule, particularly with some teams. And no team was affected quite as strongly by the coronavirus crisis as the Baltimore Ravens were. They got very cold at one point in the mid-season, with a watered down line-up, and a schedule that was all over the place. They had to play games that were delayed, sometimes playing games that had been scheduled for Thursday Night, but were pushed back to Monday Night, and even played on a Tuesday, which is rare. They were not the only ones, but they were the most obvious, because it really also impacted their level of play. While all of that nonsense was going on with them, they lagged and went on a losing streak that seemed to drop them from the ranks of the elites. Yet now, here they are, seemingly back among the elite teams, and surely heading towards the playoffs, barring what would seem now to be an unlikely collapse on the final weekend. Then again, they may fail to qualify. Who knows? After all, that is why they play the games, right?
The Ravens are not the only ones fighting for a playoff spot. The Dolphins, Browns, Colts, and Titans are all also desperately trying to reach that postseason, and the order of who will qualify where in the AFC is still unsettled. While the Chiefs, the defending champions, have already locked up the top seed and, along with it, the playoff bye, the other teams still could bounce around a bit. The Bills and Steelers are still fighting for the second spot, while the Titans and Colts are fighting to win the AFC South title, and the fourth seed. All of those teams, except for the Chiefs, are fighting for something, obviously. Either the Colts or Titans will win the division title, and the other one will be contending with the Dolphins and Browns for the other two Wildcard spots. The big match-up will be the Steelers at the Browns, as both teams have a lot riding on the outcome of this game. So it is pretty big.
On the NFC side, there is also a lot of uncertainty. More uncertainty, even. Like in the AFC, one division has yet to crown a winner. Washington, Dallas, and the Giants are all still in the running to try and win the NFC East division title. Whoever wins will host a playoff game as the fourth seed, and it is not out of the realm of possibility that the team doing it might be 6-10. At best, the winner of that division will join two other teams in NFL history. Both the Seattle Seahawks in 2010 and the Carolina Panthers in 2014 finished the season at 7-9, yet wound up winning their division titles, and thus qualifying. On the plus side, both of those teams went on to stun the NFL with wins in the Wild Card round, so perhaps there is hope for whoever emerges from the NFC East.
But the uncertainty in the NFC goes well beyond the NFC East. The Packers look like they are set o lock up the top seed, but it is not official yet. If they win, they get it. But there are scenarios where the Saints and even the Seahawks could get that top seed, so that makes it interesting. Otherwise, Tampa Bay has already clinched, but they likely want to remain where they are as the fifth seed, so that they can get their crack at the NFC East champions, because whoever it may be, they will be considered the weakest team in the NFC playoffs. Otherwise, the Rams, Cardinals, and Bears are all fighting for the final two playoff spots. For the Rams, it is simple: win and they are in. For the Bears and Cardinals, it is a little more complicated.
The final weekend is always fascinating for all of the playoff possibilities and scenarios that could play out.
So, let’s take a look:
Dallas at NY Giants – This is the big game for both teams. Effectively, this is almost like a playoff game itself. The winner of this game at least has a chance at the division title, and thus, the playoffs. After all, if Washington loses this weekend, then this game really does become a de facto playoff game, with the winner staying alive and moving on to play again next weekend, and the loser going home for a long offseason. So, who will win? Well, the Giants have had a difficult time against the Cowboys in recent seasons. They have dropped seven straight to Dallas, but this would be a great time for them to snap that streak. They have a pretty tough defense to do it, although Dallas seemed to find solid footing on offense last weekend against the Eagles. That should be an intriguing match-up. On the other hand, the Giants offense is one of the worst units, but they are going up against the Cowboys defense, which also is one of the worst units in the league. So, can the Big Blue offense finally find some life against a vulnerable defense? Or will the Cowboys defense play well for what would be a second week in a row? The answer, as a Giants fan, scares me a bit, because I am biased. That Dallas defense looked solid last weekend, and let’s face it: the G-Men have looked almost inept on offense. In a strange way, it makes this game quite intriguing, as well. I would love to see the Giants win, and thus, perhaps this is more of an emotional pick than a logical one, but I will pick the home team for this one, to finally end this damn losing streak. My pick: NY Giants
NY Jets at New England – This game pits the two worst teams in the AFC East. The Pats, normally one of the most consistent winners, have fallen quite a bit this season, and enter this game with a 6-9 record. The Jets have won two straight games after a miserable 0-13 start. But winning up in Foxboro, especially in January, tends to be very difficult. The Pats surely want to end this season on a positive note, although that is true of the Jets, as well. In the end, I suspect that Belichick will have his team prepared to make a solid closing statement, if you will, on what has been an obviously disappointing and frustrating season for them. Gang Green’s recent winning streak has been impressive, but I think it ends this weekend. My pick: New England
Pittsburgh at Cleveland – Now, this might be the biggest game of the week! That is something relatively new for the Browns, although if they win this game, their future of playing in big games in coming seasons is promising indeed. It is not guaranteed that Cleveland will qualify for the playoffs, because they would need some help if they lose this game. However, if they win, they are in. That much is simple, so the Browns basically control their own destiny. However, the Steelers are not going to be complicit. They have something to win, as well, as they would like to have the second seed. In order to get it, they would need the Bills to lose this weekend and, most importantly, they would need to win this game. As of right now, the Steelers have owned a decisive advantage over the Browns. They have won 10 of the last 111 meetings, 14 of the last 16 games, 18 of the last 21 meetings, and 30 of the last 33 meetings between these two teams, dating back all the way to 2003. In fact, Cleveland has only won 7 meeting against the Steelers dating back all the way to playoff meeting between the two teams back in the mid-nineties. For the tortured fans of Cleveland, and for the players and management of the Browns franchise, nobody represents the agony of the failures and frustrations of this franchise quite like the Pittsburgh Steelers do. So, this is a very, very important game for the Browns, and I think that given the stakes, as well as the improvements, that the Browns have made, give them a very good chance to finally, finally get past the Steelers, so that they can focus on just getting better and becoming a more serious contender than they have been in many, many years. My pick: Cleveland
Miami at Buffalo – A big and important showdown between the two top dogs this season in the AFC. The Dolphins are on the edge of qualifying for the playoffs after an impressive season, but the Bills also have plenty to fight for, as well. With a win, Buffalo will cement their status as the second seed in the AFC playoffs, and most likely the biggest obstacle to another title run that the Chiefs are likely to face in this conference before reaching the Super Bowl. The Dolphins have improved rather dramatically, as well, however. They could very well win this one. But I believe that the Bills have the better team, and the desire to win and get the second seed, and will do it. My pick: Buffalo
Minnesota at Detroit – This game is between two teams going nowhere after this game. Both are facing long off-seasons, and so this game is effectively just being played for pride, and possibly draft pick order. The Lions have not played well at home, managing only one home win all season long. Also, Detroit has lost five of their last six games, and thus are one of the coldest teams in the league as the end of this season approaches. The Lions offense has struggled, but their defense has been atrocious, ranking dead last now on defense for the entire league. Too much instability, it seems. However, the Vikings have been playing poorly lately, as well, having dropped three games in a row. Their defense is quite bad as well, although they have generally played better quality teams. So, my guess is that the Vikings manage to find a way to salvage some kind of respect. Really, though, they got off to a horrific start to the season, and simply never fully recovered. But that should not prevent them from winning this one, at least. My pick: Minnesota
Atlanta at Tampa Bay – The Falcons probably just want this season to end. They got off to a horrific, winless start, and were pretty much irrelevant from the start. While they did get on the ball enough to pull off some decent wins, the thing that will continually haunt them is their continued tendency to give up big leads, and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The Bucs, meanwhile, went through a rough patch at mid-season, but recovered towards the end. They now have won three straight games and have clinched a playoff berth, the first in over a decade for this franchise. Things are looking up, and they would love to win this game so that their next game on Wildcard weekend should be a winnable road game against whoever emerges as the NFC East champions. So, they have something to fight for, something to prove, going into this game. And with the incentive to win, win they shall. My pick: Tampa Bay
Jacksonville at Indianapolis – The Colts still are alive for not just a playoff spot, but also for the AFC South division title. They suffered a tough loss in Pittsburgh last weekend, and now basically need to win this game to ensure the best chance of achieving what they can achieve. Right now, Indy is outside, looking in for the playoffs. The Titans hold the tiebreaker for the division title, so if they beat the Texans in Houston, they take the division title. Nor do the Colts control their own destiny with a playoff spot. It could actually be possible that the Colts win, and then become only the third NFL team in history to finish a regular season with a mark of 11-5 and still miss the playoffs. Yes, the Colts need help, obviously, to make the playoffs. However, it begins with beating the Jaguars and getting some revenge for the season opening loss, which actually is the only win that the Jaguars have managed, having lost 14 straight games since. So, look for the Colts to leave absolutely no doubt. True, they lost that earlier meeting, but they hav home field advantage here, they have the revenge incentive, and obviously, they also have every reason to do everything possible to win. Frankly, I would be quite shocked if the Colts have some kind of a letdown and lose this one. Hard to see it happening. My pick: Indianapolis
Baltimore at Cincinnati – The Bengals have been playing well in recent weeks, and would like to finish the season on a positive note by winning. But the Ravens are, frankly, the better team, and they obviously also need to win this one. It would not be impossible for them to still qualify for the postseason even if they lose. Yet, the Ravens control their own destiny. So it really is quite simple for them: if they win, they are in. Obviously, the Ravens do not want to drop this one and hope for help from other teams in order to qualify. Frankly, the Ravens have the better overall team, and should be able to take this one. My pick: Baltimore
Arizona at LA Rams – Another game with big playoff ramifications. In this case, both teams have a lot riding on the outcome of this game. For the Rams, they are currently in the playoffs, despite a current two game losing streak, and simply would need to win in order to finally qualify. A third straight loss at this point would likely place the Rams’ playoff hopes in too much doubt. For the Cardinals, a once very promising season now sees them on the verge of being eliminated from the playoffs, and beginning a too long off-season much earlier than expected. So, this is a very intriguing game, and makes this one of the more interesting games for this upcoming weekend. Despite their recent woes, I suspect that the Rams finally start playing as well as they are capable of, and get a win here in this one. My pick: LA Rams
Green Bay at Chicago – A decent amount of playoff ramifications are riding on this one. For the Packers, a win here would clinch the top seed throughout the NFC playoffs, as long as they survive. A loss, however, could call all of that into question, as they could lose that top spot to either the Saints or the Seahawks. Meanwhile, the Bears are teetering on the edge of the playoff picture. A win does not necessarily see them qualifying officially, but it would surely be critical to them actually managing to qualify. On the flip side, a loss would greatly increase the chances that they miss the postseason, and their late season reversal of fortunes would have fallen just short of the mark. So, all of that suggests that this is a big game. Now, the Packers have more or less owned this rivalry, and for many years. Aaron Rodgers has burned Da Bears numerous times throughout his career. Yet, this would be a wonderful opportunity for them to finally respond, and to answer that with a decisive win that ends the season with an exclamation point kind of statement, and which would prove to be very costly for the Cheeseheads and their fans. A huge game, and the stakes could hardly be bigger at this time of the year. Taking a chance here, but I am picking the Bears to finally lift the boot from their necks and reach the playoffs, at the expense of the Packers taking the top spot in the NFC playoffs. My pick: Chicago
Tennessee at Houston – The Titans suffered a punishing loss at Lambeau Field last weekend, and it proved costly, as they missed an opportunity to clinch the AFC South division title, and finally officially qualify for the playoffs. But playing in Houston should be a lot easier of a test, as the Texans are nowhere near as good as the Pack. Both teams are familiar with one another, but the Titans are the better team, and really should be able to win this one and clinch the division title. My pick: Tennessee
New Orleans at Carolina – The Carolina Panthers have suffered through another tumultuous season, one that never saw them looking much like legitimate playoff contenders. Yet, they pulled off a truly stunning win, serving as spoilers and handing Washington a shocking loss that most just did not see coming. Washington could still recover to win the division, but it also could prove to be disastrous, if Washington loses today. Now, the Saints come to town, with still a chance to qualify for the top seed in the NFC, and to get that ever important bye week, and make sure that all NFC playoff games that the Saints play in would be played right in the Superdome. As impressive as the Panthers were last weekend, the Saints are still the better team, and are also now only too aware of the dangers of taking the Panthers too lightly. So, I like the Saints to pull this one off, although maybe to have a difficult time in so doing. My pick: New Orleans
Seattle at San Francisco – The Seahawks have clinched the NFC West already, yet they actually would have a chance still at reaching the top spot throughout the NFC playoffs. But that requires a couple of things falling into place, including a Packers loss, as well as a Saints loss. Most importantly, of course, the ‘Hawks would need to take care of business and win this game. The likeliness of the Seahawks actually winning the number one seed, and getting that all important playoff bye, might not seem all that great, but the Seahawks nevertheless will likely enter this game feeling a sense of urgency to achieve it, simply because there is a chance. You just never know. But they have no chance at it if they lay down, rest their starters, and let San Francisco win this one. So, look for the Seahawks to play sharp and get off to a fast start, and to hang on for the win. My pick: Seattle
LA Chargers at Kansas City – No real playoff ramifications for this game. Yes, the Chiefs are obviously heading to the playoffs, but they have already clinched everything that they could possibly have clinched, which means that they have nothing riding on the outcome of this game, win or lose. So, it would make the most sense for them to rest their starters, and to make sure that they are as healthy and well-rested entering the playoffs as possible. That means that the Chargers could get a pride win by playing their best and defeating a watered down KC team that is obviously not at full strength. My pick: LA Chargers
SNF: Washington at Philadelphia – The final game of the regular season will determine who wins the NFC East. If Washington wins this game, they will win the NFC East, and live to fight another day this season. But if they lose, then the winner of the game between the Cowboys and the New York Giants will take the division. So, this one is a big game, even though the two teams have gotten 10 wins in their combined 30 games played to date. Washington has a tough defense, and looked like they were on the verge of rolling to the division title, when they suddenly got cold. The question, then is whether or not they will heat up enough to salvage their season and take the division that was theirs for the taking for several weeks now. Perhaps the Eagles can pull off an upset and avenge their opening week loss to Washington, but I suspect that they will not, and Washington will win to finally take the division. My pick: Washington
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