2017-18 Season AFC South Preview

For quite a few years now, the AFC South has seemed to be the weakest division in the league. However, with the Texans having won the division title two years in a row now, both times with 9-7 records, you can hardly consider them dominant. The Titans made some serious strides last year. After many years of losing, the Titans looked surprisingly good and made a serious run to qualify for the playoffs, although ultimately running just short at the end. The Colts were the third place team last season, although they had strong offensive production behind star quarterback Andrew Luck. And while all of the rest of the division were able to make decent runs to make the playoffs, the Jacksonville Jaguars were, once again, a very lowly and inept team, ranking low on both offense and defense, and winding up with a record of 3-13, one of the worst records in the league. 

So, how will the AFC South shape up this season? Let me take my best shot to predict it:

1. Indianapolis Colts (projected division winners) - Remember two years ago, when the Indianapolis Colts made it all the way to the AFC title game, overcoming a 28 point deficit twice to the Chiefs, and then shocking the Broncos in Denver during the division round. At that point, the Colts seemed far and away the best and most promising team in this division, and many expected them to essentially take over from the Patriots to become the best team in the AFC, the team of the future. Some even suggested that the Colts had been cheated because of "Deflategate", even though the Colts lost that game, 45-7. Well, Indianapolis followed up on that tremendous promise with two staggeringly mediocre seasons, finishing 8-8 both times, and out of the playoffs. threw for a whopping 4,240 yards with 31 touchdowns to just 13 interceptions, and a solid 96.4 percent quarterback rating. Running back Frank Gore has added some serious power to the running game, and the offense looks set for another explosive season. Offense, however, is not where the problem is with this team. Their defense has a lot of holes in it, allowing 24 points or more in the majority of their games, and even allowing a total of 96 points in two consecutive games late in the season, one of them against the lowly Jaguars, where they allowed a whopping 51 points! That took them from a 6-5 mark, and being serious contenders to take the division, to 6-7, and effectively knocked out of the playoff race altogether. If the Colts are to improve this season, they simply cannot allow gaps and inconsistencies like that, and need to make some improvements on the defensive side. However, Luck and the Indy offense is just too good to keep bumbling like this, and I predict a fairly strong recovery, and a return to the very top of this division for the upcoming season.

2. Houston Texans (projected second place) - The Houston Texans have now won the AFC South division title for two years straight. However, it remains unclear if this is because they are actually a relatively good team, or if they have largely benefited from being in an unusually weak division. It might be a little of both. One thing for sure, Houston continues to have weaknesses, particularly on the offense. Last season, the Texans were one of a very few teams to fail to score 30 points in any game. Quarterback Brock Osweiler threw more touchdowns than interceptions, and he had a lower Quarterback Percentage Rating (55.3) than his back-up, Tom Savage (63.1), according to Pro Football Reference. Yet, the Texans won the division title and managed to beat a 12-4 team in the playoffs, before getting blown out by the Patriots up in Foxboro. Of course, it might be good to remember that the Raiders lost their key weapon, quarterback Derek Carr, who was injured and could not play that game. But lucky or not, the Texans have to be given credit for having enjoyed as successful a season as they did. And much of that good fortune was made possible by a fairly solid defense. The Texans especially benefited from an unusually strong divisional record, which effectively knocked out the other teams from contending for the division title. Houston compiled a perfect 5-0 record within the division, before losing what amounted to a meaningless regular season finale against Tennessee. The Texans still have a fairly tough defense, and if J.J. Watt can return and get back to his usual form, that should make Houston's defense even tougher. That said, they really need to pick things up on the offensive side of things, because the problems were costly, and might prove more costly this season if they are not corrected. In six games, this team failed to produce more than 13 points, and they were 1-5 in those games, so the ineptitude on offense was detrimental to their being a potentially elite team. They might even be able to win another division title this season, but if they do not at least remain as strong on defense, and make serious adjustments and improvements offensively, than they likely will not be all that good, and will continue to have the reputation as the least inept team in a weak division.

3. Tennessee Titans (projected third place) - The Tennessee Titans made some huge strides last season. In his second year at the helm, emerging young quarterback Marcus Mariota started to really show what he was capable of, and he was indeed impressive! Mariota threw 26 touchdowns to just nine interceptions on the season, winding up with an overall quarterback rating of 95.6. The Titans were a middle of the pack team on defense, although that actually served as a marked improvement over previous seasons, when they always seemed to rank very near the bottom of the league. And all of these improvements counted for something, too, because Tennessee managed to compile a 7-3 record overall in games decided by 7 points or less. It was unfortunate that Mariota wound up injured towards the end, and that this team failed to qualify for the playoffs, because it really would have been interesting to see how he would have handled the pressure of the playoffs. He should return healthy this season, which is good news for Tennessee. However, they will not be able to sneak up on people this season, as they now have to deal with the pressures of having been a winning team last year, without even having benefited from that enough to actually qualify for the playoffs. It might even be possible that this team gets better on both offense and defense, and still fails to improve on last season's mark of 9-7. They still are young and inexperienced, and I believe that they will now have to deal with some growing pains during this coming season, which is the reason why I am predicting a third place finish.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (projected last place team) - For a few years, the Jacksonville Jaguars have seemed to be on the brink breaking out to be a more serious team. Than last season, this team's season kind of tailspinned, and the Jaguars were solidly back on the bottom of the worst division in the league. The Jaguars averaged less than 20 points per game, while allowing an average of 25 points per game. They were especially bad on the road, only managing to win one game in Chicago against the also lowly Bears. However, Jax did manage to upset both the Colts and the Titans, and their win against Tennessee effectively ended that team's playoff hopes. So, the one major highlight for the Jaguars was that they managed to play spoilers. Still, Jacksonville has a lot of work to do if they hope to contend more seriously this year. They have their work cut out for them on both offense and defense. That said, quarterback Blake Bortles seems to be improving, and establishing himself still more is team's starting quarterback. Their running game really needs to improve. So does their defense. Just too many problems with this team to think that they are capable of anything but another last place finish. 

2017-18 Season NFC South Preview

The last two seasons saw NFC South teams impress greatly with their tremendous success in the regular season, and then the playoffs, ultimately producing the Super Bowl representatives for the last two big games. However, the Panthers seemed shaken by a convincing loss to the Broncos in the big game two years ago, and they seemed to never quite get on track last season. Then, there was Atlanta's huge collapse in last year's Super Bowl, and the inevitable questions of how that team will respond in the upcoming season. Both of those teams have enormous talent, and both also have enough to potentially get back to the Super Bowl, to boot. As for the Saints, so long as they have Drew Brees, their offense will be good. But the Saints defense simply has to make improvements if they hope to contend for the playoffs. As for Tampa Bay, neither their offense nor their defense quite stood out from the rest of the league, like the offense of the Falcons and Saints did last year. Still, they were pretty solid overall, ranking in the middle of the pack and earning a 9-7 record that almost saw them qualify for the postseason, although it fell a bit short in the end.

Here are my predictions for the 2017 NFC South standings:

1. Carolina Panthers (projected division winner) - The Carolina Panthers went from one of the most fearful, dominant seasons that a non-Super Bowl champion ever had, to last place in the NFC South in incredibly short order. Yes, the ferocious level of play that this team exhibited in the 2015-16 season, and their dominant postseason in the NFC, saw them entering the Super Bowl as favorites against the Denver Broncos. Since then, however, this team went from historically good to mediocre. First, there was the embarrassment of losing convincingly to the Broncos in the Super Bowl, with Cam Newton taking a beating on the field, and then taking a beating off the field for seeming to show that he was a bad sport when he was finally on the losing side of things. Then, the Panthers lost to Denver again in last season's opener, and they never seemed to get back on track. In late October, they came off a bye week with a surprisingly bad 1-5 mark, and their one win came against the San Francisco 49ers, one of the weakest teams in the league last season. The Panthers recovered somewhat, reaching a record of 4-6 around Thanksgiving, but then dropped four of their last six games, to end the season with an obviously disappointing 6-10 mark. It was a dramatic and long fall from the very best from the previous regular season to last year, when the team dropped from easy first to the clear worst in the NFC South. It could be argued that they were out of the playoff race by late October, and certainly, they were not relevant by the time that December rolled around. So, what happened? Well, the Broncos showed everyone how to take Carolina on, with a relentlessly aggressive defense that got to Newton all day, and clearly frustrated him. The defense did not play anywhere near as well as they did in 2015, and the offense, which looked high-flying and exciting during that incredible 2015 season, was held to 17 points of less seven times last season. A lot of teams emulated Denver's defensive approach, and the Panthers clearly seemed to show a lot less composure and a lot more frustrations as a result. Few could have expected them to fall so dramatically, and so quickly. However, the Panthers still have much of the talent that saw them enjoy such an awesome season, and they are not so far removed from that season that the experience gained cannot help them. So, I expect that Carolina gets back to being highly competitive this season, and probably in a big way. No, maybe they will not start off 14-0 and reach the Super Bowl with that 17-1 mark that they did for Super Bowl 50, but they will likely be much better. This is too good of a team to be bad fro two straight seasons, and they have had an entire offseason to iron out so many of the issues that clearly slowed them down last season. Depending on how the Falcons recover (or don't) from last season's unbelievable, historic Super Bowl collapse, the Panthers seem like the most likely candidates to step up if Atlanta falters even a little bit. That is why I am predicting the Panthers to take this division, and possibly to once again earn a playoff bye. Another run to the Super Bowl is not out of the question for Carolina.

2. Atlanta Falcons (projected second place team) -  The real question with the Atlanta Falcons as the 2017 season is about to start, as I see it, is how they respond to that epic collapse in last year's Super Bowl. That was bad, very bad. Had it been the other way around, if the Falcons had come all the way back from 28-3 down to secure their first championship, it would have instantly earned this team not only their first championship, but a glorious one at that. And the Patriots would likely have been in better position to recover, being able to fall back on past success, and numerous championships before. However, it was the Falcons who came so agonizingly close to the Super Bowl title, only to have the rug pulled out from under them. They fell, and they fell hard, ultimately being denied their Super Bowl rings by a determined New England squad that simply wore down and ultimately wore out the Falcons defense, which simply could not stop the Pats offense towards the end of that game. But the Falcons made so many mistakes that had to haunt them during the offseason. They did not milk the clock to nurse their lead. They did not run the ball following that spectacular completion by Julio Jones late in the game, which saw them in field goal range. Had they simply run the ball and kicked a field goal, it likely would have been enough. However, they infamously dropped back to pass, and Matt Ryan was sacked for a big loss, and then the penalty on the next play knocked them out of field goal range altogether. Everything went wrong for this team late in the third quarter and throughout the fourth quarter of that game, and ultimately, in the overtime session, when the offense did not even manage to touch the ball, as the defense once again was unable to stop the Pats from scoring the inevitable, final touchdown. For all the success that the Falcons enjoyed last season, for all the records that the offense set, and for all of the great play by star quarterback Ryan, who earned his first league MVP, the fact is that last year's Falcons will always, always be remembered most for that epic collapse at the most inopportune time. It hurt, probably more than any other loss by any other Super Bowl team in history (with the possible exception of the 2007 Patriots). So, the real question for this year's edition of the Atlanta Falcons still has a lot to do with what happened last year, and the key will be how this team responds to it. If they show determination and learn from those past mistakes, they obviously have enough talent to not only contend, but probably to earn a return trip to the Super Bowl. However, if they show the same kind of nervousness that saw them lose that big lead and, ultimately, the Super Bowl, this could be a huge letdown after such a tremendous season last year. Frankly, it is hard to say how this team will respond, but with such a level of talent on this team, it would be dumb to predict a disastrous season. Time will tell what happens with this team, but it should at least be fascinating to watch!

3. New Orleans Saints (projected third place) - Few teams were as transparently lopsided in terms of strengths and weaknesses as the New Orleans Saints proved to be. Their offense was one of the elite units last season, and might have been able to take this team to the playoffs, and possibly even to contend for the division title. But their defense was so bad, and proved such a liability, that the Saints could not make their remarkable offensive production stand up enough to keep this team competitive. Yes, Drew Brees led an offense that averaged nearly 30 points per game. Yet, the defense also gave up nearly as many points. Nine times, the Saints scored 30 points or more last season, a majority of their games. But when the defense gives up nearly as many points, it defeats the purpose of having such a good offense. Also, New Orleans was not particularly great in close games, with a 3-7 mark overall in games decided by six points or less. Simply put, if the Saints are to improve this season, they have to fill up some of those holes on defense, and they have to get better at winning the really close games that are within their reach. Brees is not getting any younger, yet it is hard to imagine the Saints offense not producing big time points. However, if they do not improve defensively, then the Saints will continue to lose a lot of shootout games, like they did last season. And if that happens, then the playoffs will also continue to be questionable, at best, especially since New Orleans cannot count on the season long collapse of the Panthers this coming season.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - (projected last place) - Tampa Bay was the epitome of a middle of the pack team last season. They were neither very bad, nor very good. They made a serious playoff run, only being eliminated from playoff contention in the final week of the season. The Bucs were also inconsistent, pulling off very impressive wins, such as with huge and surprising road wins in Atlanta and Kansas City and a home win against Seattle, while also losing to the lowly Rams and proving unable to win a critical match in New Orleans late last season. They followed a very impressive opening game win in Atlanta by getting crushed in Arizona the next week, 40-7. They sported a record of 4-2 when scoring 17 points or less last season, while also going 4-4 when scoring 24 points or more. In November to mid-December, they held four out of five opponents to 17 points or less during a five game winning streak. Yet, they also allowed 30 points or more five times, losing all five of those games. Indeed, the Buccaneers just proved too inconsistent on both sides of trhe ball to ultimately qualify for the playoffs, and so their playoff drought not qualifying since the 2002 season (when they won Super Bowl XXXVII) continues. And unless they step up significantly on either one side of the ball or the other without dropping off in play on the other side, they will likely continue to not show the consistency necessary to seriously compete for the postseason this year, either.

2017-18 Season NFC East Preview

The Dallas Cowboys were back on top in the NFC East, winning the division title easily with a 13-3 record, tying the best record in franchise history (both 1992 and 2007). However, the 'Boys lost their first and only playoff game at home against the Pack. Still, they are young and strong, and now have a chance to repeat, and show that last season was no fluke. However, the Giants managed to sweep them, and looked pretty strong themselves last season, finishing 11-5. But like Dallas, the G-Men also got bounced out of the playoffs after only one game. Washington managed a winning record last season, led by a pretty strong offense, and they might be able to win the division again themselves. Finally, the Eagles struggled last season, but they were better than a lot of people expected them to be, which probably bodes well for the future, both near and long term. 

So, how does the NFC East shape up? Let me take a shot at it:

1. Dallas Cowboys (projected division winner) - The Dallas Cowboys seemed to have it all for most of last season. After suffering a loss in week one, the Cowboys went on a tear, reeling off another 11 straight wins, and establishing a new franchise record in the process. They were so far ahead of everyone else in the NFC, that nobody could really hope to catch them in the race for home field advantage, as the Cowboys tied their best record in franchise history at 13-3 (accomplished twice before in 1992 and 2007). Dallas looked amazing, with a solid offensive line, a stingy defense, and two very strong and young prospects full of promise for the future in quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Eliot. Dallas had drastically improved on both offense and defense, and this accounted for their incredible success in the regular season. Some were talking about a return to glory and the franchise's first trip back to the Super Bowl in over two decades. But then, it ended just as quickly, as the visiting Green Bay Packers stunned the Cowboys with a huge road win in the playoffs. Still, Dallas has those two young and emerging prospects, although there has been some personnel change, as well, particularly on defense and with that enormously successful offensive line. So the question is, will Dallas follow up on last season's success, or will they perhaps once again struggled with trying to gel, or perhaps being plagued with injuries or even off the field issues. Eliot in particular had a tumultuous offseason, and he needs to have his focus back to where it should be, if the Cowboys are to be successful again this season. All in all, the Cowboys have a vast array of talent, and this should help them to avoid the pitfalls of the 2015 season, when they also followed up a very successful season in 2014 by laying an egg. Dallas should be able to avoid those pitfalls in 2017, and can win the division again. 

2. New York Giants (projected second place) - Head coach Ben McAdoo was successful in bringing the Giants new success, as the team qualified for the postseason for the first time since their Super Bowl championship season in 2011. The G-Men enjoyed their best regular season since the 2008 season, finishing with an 11-5 mark. Along the way, they managed to beat three playoff teams, beating the Lions and sweeping the Cowboys. All of that was what many had predicted, although perhaps it had not quite happened the way that people expected it to. McAdoo was supposed to open the offense up, having strong schemes and a good mind for offenses. Instead, the Giants were one of the lowest scoring offenses in the league, and failed to reach 30 points in any of their games. However, their defense stepped up in a big way, rising to an elite status in the best traditions of Giants teams of the past. Ultimately, it was not enough to prevent Dallas from taking the division, or from Washington to sweep them. In the end, the Giants qualified for the playoffs, but exited immediately with a loss to the Packers at Lambeau Field, where prior G-Men teams had pulled off impressive playoff road wins en route to the Super Bowl. But it was not meant to be for last season's edition of the Giants. However, there is reason to believe that the New York Football Giants have plenty of reasons to be optimistic for this upcoming season. Their defense looks solid, and their offense is loaded with talent, with an all-star quarterback, and an obviously talented set of receivers, including perhaps the most famous receiver in the game right now in Odell Beckham, Jr.. However, there are still some questions with the Giants running game and offensive line, which could inhibit them. The Giants were not very consistent last season, but if they stay as strong defensively as they proved to be last season, and if their offensive line proves strong, the Giants can more than contend for the division, but might even have a shot at another deep playoff run, possibly even the Super Bowl. 

3. Washington (projected third place) - It was easy to forget or overlook Washington last season, but they actually enjoyed a winning season, albeit barely, at 8-7-1. However, it was not good enough to get this team to qualify for the playoffs. Why? Because this team just did not win with any consistency. They managed to pull off some impressive wins against playoff teams, including Green Bay and the New York Giants. However, they also lost some games to teams that they probably should not have lost to, and they just never found the footing to really launch a serious run to make the playoffs. Offensively, this team showed some serious capabilities at times, with two games where they exceeded 40 points, and at least eight games overall where they scored 26 points or more. However, their defense remained largely lackluster, allowing an average of 24 points per game, which accounted for many of their struggles. Quarterback Kirk Cousins continues to impress some, with Washington wide receiver Jamison Crowder even recently suggesting that Cousins ranks as an elite quarterback. Whether or not he is, Washington's offense can be powerful, and they might keep Washington in the playoff race. However, the inconsistencies, particularly on the defensive side of things, might still prevent this team from being a serious contender to qualify for the postseason. 

4. Philadelphia Eagles (projected last place) - The Eagles raced off to the hot start last season, winning their first three games, including a surprisingly lopsided win against highly rated cross state rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers. It seemed that then rookie quarterback Carson Wentz and the birds from Philly had people standing up and taking notice. But they followed this up with nine losses in the next 11 games, a spiral that quickly and convincingly saw them out of the playoff race well before the end of the season. The defense looked much better overall last season, and looked downright dominant for those first three wins. However, the offense was not nearly so consistent, running dry particularly during a critical three game stretch in the mid-season that saw them drop from 5-4, and seemingly a playoff contender, to 5-7, and very much on the outside looking in. Still, other than those three straight games when this team scored an average of 14 points in each game (total of 42 points during that stretch), the Eagles otherwise were able to score points fairly consistently last year. They were not exactly explosive, however, but just steady producers. If Philly can take a few steps towards making the offense a bit more explosive, and if the defense can continue to make improvements, the Eagles might once again get people to take notice of them, and it might be longer than a mere three games, too. However, they would need to start beating their division rivals with more consistency, as they managed only a 1-4 record against the NFC East in meaningful games before earning a win against the Cowboys in the regular season finale when Dallas had already clinched everything that they needed, and rested their starters. Indeed, the Eagles can improve, but I doubt that they will improve quite enough to seriously contend for the postseason. At least not this coming year, just yet. 

2017-18 Season AFC East Preview

New England won the Super Bowl again, proving to be not just the strongest team in this division, but in the entire league. They have dominated the AFC East for the better part of two decades now, only failing to win the division title in 2002 and in 2008. Plus, they still have Tom Brady at quarterback, and Bill Belichick as coach, which means that they should be very well prepared, as always, entering this new season. So, it is difficult to imagine anyone else in this can give them a serious run for the division title this year. Not impossible, but hard to imagine, for sure. The New York Jets got rid of seemingly everyone, and are rebuilding. Many people project that they will be among the league's very worst teams. The Bills might not be in as bad of a situation, but they have struggled for a long time, and with coaching and personnel changes, it is difficult to imagine them being good enough to seriously challenge the Pats. And then there is Miami, a team that actually qualified for the playoffs last season. They are good, and possibly getting better. But are they really good enough to challenge the Patriots at the top? That will likely be the main question as far as the AFC East is concerned entering this new season. 

So, can the Dolphins possibly overtake the Patriots to win this division? Will the Pats suffer from a championship hangover (something that they have not been known for in the past following championships)? Can the Bills get back on track and perhaps contend for a playoff position, something that they have not managed to do since the 1999 season? Can the Jets perhaps surprise some people and win more games than most people expect them to?

Here are my answers:

1. New England Patriots (projected division winners) - No, I cannot got against New England heading into this new season. This team has set the standard by which all other teams are judged, and left wanting. Even teams that have won championships, even multiple championships, just have not managed to win with the kind of consistency that the Patriots have managed to produce. There is just no quit in this team, and if anyone doubted that, just look at what happened after Atlanta took that 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl. It was the greatest comeback in New England's franchise history, and it obviously could not have come at a better time. It also underscored just how determined this team has grown to win no matter what the odds. I know that a lot of people out there really, really hate this team, and more often than not, they try to discredit their accomplishments. Many said that they were handed the championship by Seattle two years ago, and many of the same people suggested that Atlanta accommodated the Patriots with all of the mistakes that they made. But make no mistake, the Patriots applied heavy pressure each time, and forced many of those mistakes. Also, give them credit for overcoming their own mistakes. As their list of accomplishments continues to grow, it would be foolish to dismiss this out of some kind of lingering resentment, as so many haters seem determined to do. The Pats have set the bar high, and it is for a reason. Barring some unlikely circumstances, they should be able to win this division, and earn yet another playoff bye, at the very least. Frankly, I would not put a lot of money against them returning to the Super Bowl, or winning another title!

4. Miami Dolphins (projected second place) - The Dolphins enjoyed some solid success last season, managing to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since the 2008 season. That is an impressive accomplishment, especially since this team got off to a seemingly disastrous 1-4 start, with their only win at that point coming in an overtime game against the lowly Browns. But an upset win against Pittsburgh seemed to spark some life into this team, and they exploded into life, winning 9 of their next 10 games. Granted, they did not play the best teams in the league during that stretch, with the Steelers being the exception. But the Steelers obviously for their revenge by pounding the Dolphins in the Wildcard Game. Truth be told, the Dolphins seemed to win the games that they were supposed to win last year, and they lost the games that they were supposed to lose. if Miami wants to contend for this division title, that will have to change, and they will likely have to take at least one game against New England. Ryan Tannehill seemed to enjoy some success, although he threw some interceptions at key, inopportune times. Neither the defense nor the offense were especially impressive, and so they will need to rely on experience and continue to develop the talent that they have if they even want to get back to the playoffs, to show some of the toughness and resolve that they had last season in overcoming that horrible start. But Miami will also have a tougher schedule, and they will not sneak up on people, so a return trip to the playoffs is not a sure bet. As for seriously challenging New England for the division title, that frankly seems unlikely. 

3. Buffalo Bills (projected third place) - It was an offseason of changes for the Bills, the team with the longest active drought for qualifying for the playoffs in the entire league. Unfortunately for the Buffalo faithful, their team has the dubious distinction as the only franchise that has failed to qualify for the postseason for any season in the 21st century. However, there is reason to hope. The Bills seemed to improve offensively, averaging nearly 25 points per game, and they scored 25 points or more 10 times last season. Unfortunately, the defense of the Bills was surprisingly lax at times, lacking the toughness that most Rex Ryan defenses are known for. Buffalo's defense was not awful, but they were not great, either, ranking right in the middle of the pack in terms of points allowed. Like the Dolphins, the Bills produced one semi-shocking upset, a shutout win up at Foxboro. However, that was one of the games in which Tom Brady was not playing, so you cannot discount that. Otherwise, the Bills could not beat any winning teams, and if they hope to end their playoff drought this season, that obviously would have to change. If they can take at least one against Miami, and assuming that they sweep the Jets, the Bills might have a chance at second place, and may be in the playoff race. However, they have very little wiggle room, and absolutely need to improve and start winning some of the tougher games in the process. Recent history has been dire, in terms of the Bills not managing to overcome those obstacles. Can this year's edition of the Bills buck that trend? Time will tell, but although I would like to see the Bills back in the playoffs, my gut feeling tells me that they will not manage to do it. 

2. New York Jets (projected last place) -  Ah, the Jets. For some reason, while the other two football fans in my family, my grandfather and my brother, were fans of the Jets while I was growing up, I picked the Giants as my favorite team, and the Jets as my second favorite team. It might be a cruel thing to say, but I am glad that I did, because being a fans of the Jets is like torture. At times, this team has come close. I watched them qualify for the AFC Championship Game four times, in 1982, 1998, 2009, and 2010. At times, they have had some amazing talent, such as when they had the Sack Exchange, or a high-powered offense with Al Toon, Wes Walker, and Freeman McNeil, with Ken O'Brien seemingly a decent quarterback, albeit one who never seemed to reach his full potential. They had Parcells almost lead them to the Super Bowl in the late nineties. In the early 2000's, they destroyed Peyton Manning's Colts, 41-0, in the playoffs, and shocked the Chargers in San Diego not once, but twice in the playoffs in the 2000's. They seemed on the verge of elite status in 2009 and 2010. But since then, their flights to the playoffs have all been grounded. They have come close, such as when they finished 10-6 a couple of seasons ago. But after failing to contend last year, the Jets seemed to let everyone go during this past offseason, apparently to get a fresh start. Many Jets fans that I met actually appreciate that, and hope for the best. I do as well. However, that does not bode well for the short term prospects. Indeed, the Jets do not have the kind of talent that can make them competitive this season, especially since they have two teams in their division that actually qualified for the playoffs last season. It will likely be a long season, another one where the team name might seem to stand for "Just End The Season." But indeed, the Jets might be working towards building something bigger for the future. At least that is what Jets fans will hope, as they will be forced to endure another lowly season with few wins for their favorite football team, one that has grown too accustomed to torturing their poor fans. 

Can the Atlanta Falcons Recover From Their High Profile Collapses? The 1992-93 Houston Oilers Reminisce About Their Own Epic Collapse

Okay, it is August now. Amazing how the time flies, isn't it? This year still feels new to me, like it began not that long ago. Then, bam! You look up, and next thing you know, the calendar is telling you that it is August, and that most of this year is behind you. Truly amazing.

In any case, August in sports in North America means that preseason football starts, and it will be starting tomorrow, with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. The Dallas Cowboys will face the Arizona Cardinals, and both teams have very realistic playoff hopes for the coming season. However, the Cardinals just announced that they will be sitting out their starters for this game, so chances are that whatever happens, this game will likely not generate that much excitement for viewers. Indeed, the preseason often is seen in this same way, as basically the warm up to the main event. It offers glimpses of new players, and sometimes of new uniforms when teams change them, or perhaps even some indications of new schemes or styles of play that teams hope will bring them success. But in reality, everyone is preparing for the regular season. 

And so, predictions about the upcoming season are running rampant. Very soon, I will be adding my own predictions to the mix, predicting each division and, ultimately, making my picks for division winners, playoff teams, and who I feel will meet in Super Bowl LII and why, and who will win. 

However, there is one thing that still might just loom over this coming season, and that would be the amazing, still unbelievable end to last year's Super Bowl. In case you forgot, what made it so unbelievable was that the Atlanta Falcons, who had one of the most amazing offenses in league history last season, raced out to a 28-3 lead over the mighty New England Patriots, seeming to make short work of them. Atlanta could do no wrong in building such a lead, and they made it look all too easy. And indeed it was, because once the Pats woke up, it seemed that the Falcons became a different team, one that could do nothing right. Atlanta made mistake after mistake, accommodating New England's slims chances of a historical comeback as much as possible. In the end, the Falcons could not stop the Patriots, who won in overtime to secure their second Super Bowl championship in three seasons.

It was a stunning comeback win for the Patriots, but it was equally as stunning a collapse on the part of the Falcons. For New England, it was perhaps the most impressive victory for a team and a town that has seen many championships, and is defined by their enormous levels of success. But for Atlanta, the Falcons failure will likely define them for a very long time. The only chance that they might have to erase that from being their legacy is to win at least one memorable championship, or perhaps to win multiple championships. Short of that, everyone will remember that historical collapse last February, in the biggest game of the year, and now, one of the most famous and memorable Super Bowls of all time. 

For the Falcons and the city of Atlanta, however, it was memorable for all the wrong reasons. However, there is another NFL team that can relate, having suffered an even more epic collapse. That would be the 1992 Houston Oilers, who went to Buffalo and took an amazing 35-3 lead over the Bills in the Wildcard Game, only to see that lead evaporate. As improbable as it was, the Oilers blew a 32-point second half lead to lose that game, which ended their season.

If the Falcons want to look for hope following last February's embarrassment, though, they might not want to look at the example of the Houston Oilers, however, because the Oilers never really recovered. Their next season was a historically turbulent one, and featured yet another playoff collapse. After that, the owner of the Houston Oilers dismantled the team. Within a few years, they left town altogether, relocating to Tennessee. They kept the Oilers name and uniform for a few seasons, and then became the Tennessee Titans. 

Literally, that epic collapse in the playoffs defined the Oilers to such an extent, that they literally never recovered, moving to another city and then changing their names and logo, so that the Houston Oilers effectively ceased to exist. Younger fans might not even be aware that the Tennessee Titans once were the Houston Oilers. So, perhaps that it not the most promising recovery story for the Falcons to grasp onto, as they look to try and put the disappointment of the historic Super Bowl loss behind them for this season. 

However, members of those Houston Oilers are still around, and they watched that game, watched the Falcons collapse like they did the better part of a quarter of a century ago. And indeed, as you might guess, they had some thoughts on it. 

Mostly, it reminded them of their own horrific experiences for that one playoff collapse.

In a fascinating article by Tim Rohan of Sports Illustrated (see link below), the questions running through those old Oilers minds as they watched the game seemed perhaps all too familiar to them:

"Their defense has been on the field too long! They look gassed. Why aren’t they running the ball and milking the clock?"

Suddenly, the Oilers were reminded of a game that none of them really enjoy thinking about, even all these years later. They still do not like the fact that the epic collapse defined them, defined the now non-existent Houston Oilers franchise.

Indeed, the old members of the Oilers had reunited in their old city of Houston, where the Super Bowl between the Falcons and the Patriots was being played. And they grew anxious as they sat on their bar stools and watched the Falcons once huge, almost insurmountable lead evaporate. It served as yet one more reminder of that fateful day in January in Buffalo, back in 1993. The one that the Oilers will now forever be remembered for. Can you blame them? 

Right after that unbelievable game, the one that Houston lost to the Bills, they went to their locker rooms and closed the doors, not wanting to talk to anyone. However, more than two decades have passed since then, and they seem more willing to open up. Those Oilers spoke about that loss after Atlanta's shocking defeat in the Super Bowl, in that article by Tim Rohan (see link below). 

Warren Moon, the star quarterback for that Oilers team, said, “I never thought we were going to lose.” 

Rohan described the chaos that Houston players went through in what still remains as the greatest comeback in NFL history, shortly after the Oilers celebrated a little too much after taking what seemed like an insurmountable lead:

"Then after going up 35-3, Oilers kicker Al Del Greco miss-hit the ensuing kickoff, giving the Bills the ball at midfield, which led to a Buffalo touchdown … then the Bills recovered an onside kick and scored again. … then the Bills forced a three-and-out and scored again. The Oilers had the ball and another chance to stop the bleeding, when … the Bills picked off Moon and scored yet again."

Indeed, the game just spiraled out of control for them. 

Haywood Jeffires, the former wide receiver for Houston, said:

“We just couldn’t stop the madness. You wanted this to be over. It was almost like a dream.”

Bubba McDowell, a safety on that Houston squad, remembered:

   

“Absolutely nothing was going right. We just had mistake after mistake after mistake after mistake. It was just piling up. There was no end. I was like, how bad can we screw this up?”

Ernest Givins remembers that the loss brought out the worst in everyone:

“There was a lot of arguing among the players on the bus, on the plane home. Shaking our heads. Pointing fingers. Arguing with each other. Could’ve, would’ve, should’ve—that type of thing. We should’ve made some adjustments, this and that. Everyone was just jawing at each other. … [We had] messed up a golden opportunity. … We win that game, we win the Super Bowl—no question.”

Now, I am not sure about that. The Oilers, had they beaten the Bills, would next have needed to go to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers, and that would have been a division rival familiar with the Oilers. If they had gotten past them, they still would have needed to beat the Dolphins in Miami. And then let us not forget that the AFC was right in the thick of the losing streak in Super Bowls back then. It is true that the Buffalo Bills got very hot after that victory, which was indeed good enough to get them to the Super Bowl. However, they lost the big game, and lost badly, to the Dallas Cowboys, who were emerging as the dynasty of the decade. I hardly think that Givins is right in simply assuming that the Oilers would have won it all, no doubt, had they only won that game up in Buffalo. But then again, we will never know now, will we?

Of course, the Oilers tried to put the loss behind them. They tried to gear themselves up for the next season, to try and do something spectacular that might help wipe away the bitter memories of their unbelievable loss. Warren Moon recalled:

“We said, are we going to let last year destroy us? Everybody thinks that’s going to destroy us, so how are we going to handle that? The faster we can get that out of our mind—that happened last year, but this is a new football team. … We were trying to get everyone to buy in, that this isn’t the same team, this is a different team, the ’93 team. That was the ’92 team. We had a new defensive coordinator, Buddy Ryan. It was a different atmosphere. We had to keep selling everyone on that.”

Indeed, the Houston Oilers were determined to try and put memories of that Wildcard loss up in Buffalo behind them, but the 1993 season was unbelievably tumultuous. They started off clearly still shaken, getting off to a sluggish 1-4 start. But then they got hot, pulling off 11 straight wins to earn the number 2 seed in the AFC.  However, despite how impressive they were towards the end of the regular season, those Oilers still lost when it counted the most. They lost at home to the visiting Kansas City Chiefs, who happened to have Joe Montana at the helm as quarterback. Once again, the Oilers lost a big lead in the second half, and wound up losing the game. 

Yet, the 1993-94 Houston Oilers will likely be remembered much more for what happened off the field then on it. Once again, Rohan sums it up rather well:

"Offensive lineman David Williams missed a game because his wife was in labor, and the team fined him, sparking a national outcry; the episode became known as “Babygate.” Reserve defensive lineman Jeff Alm committed suicide after his friend died in an automobile accident in which Alm was driving; Alm’s blood-alcohol content was above the legal limit. And when Buddy Ryan’s dissatisfaction with what he called the “Chuck-and-Duck” boiled over, he and offensive Kevin Gilbride got into a heated exchange, culminating in Ryan slugging Gilbride in the face. NFL Films later made a documentary based entirely on the Oilers’ dysfunctional 1993 season."

“It was a controversial, emotional year for us,” Moon says. “By the end, after everything we went through, we were running on empty. We didn’t have enough to win that playoff game. Then Joe Montana worked his magic.”

And so that was that. The owner of the Houston Oilers, Bud Adams, had promised to dismantle the team if they did not win it all, and he did exactly that. The team was indeed taken apart, and fell into irrelevance by the 1994 season, when they were the worst team in the league, with a 2-14 record overall. A few years later, Houston lost the Oilers, who relocated to Tennessee. A few years later, they changed their name and their image, becoming the Tennessee Titans, marking the end of an era when a team known as the Oilers still existed.

“It leaves a big hole in your heart, you know?” Jeffires says on the phone, a few weeks after watching the Falcons’ collapse. “They say things do pass. Like, when someone dies in your family? You think you’re never going to get over it. Then sooner or later, you do. Wounds heal. But you never forget. That game will be a dagger in our hearts for as long as we live.”

So, can we then expect that the Atlanta Falcons will similarly collapse and become irrelevant, known mostly for that epic Super Bowl collapse? Perhaps, although it seems doubtful that history would repeat exactly like that. The Falcons are not the Oilers, although their loss was basically as memorable. Both were playoff games, but for the Falcons, that loss came in the Super Bowl, which everyone, including people who only watch one NFL game per year, happened to be watching. Arguably, this might define them more than that loss the Oilers suffered defined that team nearly 25 years ago now.

The real question right now will be how strongly the Falcons can recover from such a crushing disappointment. Historically, many Super Bowl losers have struggled the following season, especially after a particularly emotional Super Bowl loss. Remember the Panthers last season? They came in as favorites, because of the way they seemed to run over everybody during the 2015-16 season. But that loss to Denver in the big game clearly shook them. And before that, remember how dominant the Seahawks seemed to be, like an emerging dynasty? They never recovered from that 2nd and 1 decision that led to the loss, although their story might not yet be over, as they are still a very good and talented team. 

It all remains to be seen just how the Atlanta Falcons will respond. Clearly, it brought out the worst for the Houston Oilers, as that franchise literally never recovered from that loss. Like Houston back then, the city of Atlanta has not exactly piled up the sports championships, which probably means that this loss stings more than it would if it happened to another city's team. After all, even though it was in a different sport, everyone remembers that the Yankees blew a 3 games to none lead to the Red Sox in 2004, but the Yanks are still remembered far more for their dozens of championships, and they still remain very relevant today. The Falcons do not have that kind of history to fall back on, so it is a different situation.

One way or the other, it will be fascinating to see how they respond. 

On Epic NFL Collapses, the Oilers Can Tell the Falcons a Thing or Two by Tim Rohan, March 22nd, 2017:

https://www.si.com/mmqb/2017/03/21/super-bowl-51-falcons-collapse-1993-oilers-bills-game

"The Charbor Chronicles" Reaches Half a Million Views!

Some may remember that I last shared a landmark in terms of views of "The Charbor Chronicles" on November 11, 2016, when I received 250,000 views.

That was a landmark, and it took me nearly six years to reach it. Now, however, I am proud to announce half a million views, and it is considerably less than one year later, which is staggering to me!

I started this blog back in December of 2010, thanks largely to the encouragement of my girlfriend back then, Anina. She said that I should have a blog, which would allow me to write and publish stuff regularly. At the time, I did not know much about blogs, and for some reason, assumed that these were difficult and complicated and somehow inaccessible to me. She told me otherwise, said that it would be easy to start one, and that I could make it into something with my writing.

Indeed, it proved surprisingly easy to set up a blog, and so "The Charbor Chronicles" was born. However, it was difficult to start with, because I remained unsure of what to write about. Frankly, mind tends to wander quite a bit, and I have been told that my mind, and my tastes, as quite eclectic, and seemingly random. With considerable enthusiasm, it tends to wander from subject to subject, so that I can discuss many things that have nothing to do with one another. Perhaps it is musical tastes (and my tastes there have also been described as eclectic), but then it might be politics (a big subject for me) the next hour. However, talking about politics with complete strangers has never been my forte, since people seem to militant in their beliefs. Perhaps I can talk about sports, although believe it or not, despite some obviously lingering interests in sports, my actual interest in watching games and learning about players and such has dwindled considerably since I was a younger man. Perhaps it can be history, because it has always fascinated me, and was actually my major at Rutgers. Perhaps it can old comics and cartoons and toys, which also often interest me (well, the ones that I was into during my childhood, anyway). Perhaps it is philosophy, or spirituality. Perhaps it is simply in discussing or reviewing a book that I recently read, or a movie or concert that I just saw. 

Whatever the subject matter, it seemed to me at the time that maybe I should at least start off a little focused, to have some kind of a theme, even though my mind tends to wander. However, I was reluctant to talk at length about any of these things mentioned above, because although interested me, and I could go on and on about some of them, it seemed presumptuous to assume they would interest others. As if to prove that point, whenever I go back and visit some of my older writings, there are still some entries with exactly zero views. Not once has anyone opened those particular blog posts to view them, and that includes myself!

Still, it has come a long way. From those very early, almost hesitant posts in the first couple of years, when I posted a mere 27 blog entries in both 2010 and 2011 combined (and only three in all of 2010!), to now, when there have been 3,879 published posts, with now over half a million views! It feels great to have reached that milestone, and I feel humbled by it, as well as thankful to all the people who have viewed any of my posts. "The Charbor Chronicles" still is not precisely where I would want it to be, although there have been some successes, for which I am proud. Mostly, though, it is for me to say thank you for everyone who has tuned in and who continue to come to this site to read my latest thoughts, however random these tend to be!

Thanks again!!

Trump White House Circus Continues Full Steam

Yup! The absurdity continues unabated.

Yesterday marked yet another busy newsmaking day in the Trump White House, and typically, it was for all the wrong reasons.

Again.

Another high-ranking official was forced out of the White House.

Again.

And in a related story, another high-ranking official took office, looking to finally rein in all of this nonsense and bring some semblance of order and discipline into an administration that has lacked each of those qualities.

Again.

This time, the man out of the Trump administration is none other than Anthony Scaramucci, often referred to as "The Mooch." Scaramucci had been in his position as Communications Director for the Trump White House for all of ten days, before being forced out by the newest member of the Trump administration, John F. Kelly, who officially took on his new role as the White House Chief of Staff yesterday.

Really, it is hard to imagine that Kelly, whatever his credentials, will be able to change the image and direction of the disastrous Trump administration. After all, the man who is in charge, Trump himself, looks increasingly unhinged. His is not normal behavior, especially for a man in such a high position like this.

Will Kelly be able to rein this guy in?

Frankly, it seems unlikely. After all, so far, all we have seen from the Trump administration is relentless chaos and idiocy. Trump is a clown, and he has brought his circus act to the White House. Some other presidents have obviously been guilty of conduct that is beneath the dignity of the office that they held, but Trump seems determined to define his presidency by such behavior, that it is both disgusting and outrageous. So far, White House positions have been so temporary, that it feels like this is a revolving door kind of a workplace. We see some members of Trump's cabinet envious or distrustful of others, accusing others, and we saw one clown in the model of Trump himself almost put Trump to shame with his lunacy, pettiness, and profanity. Really, it has just been staggering, how bad things have been with the Trump White House thus far.

It's almost as if he has no business being president to begin with, huh?