It's turkey time again.
And, traditionally, Thanksgiving is the time that most NFL teams try to remain relevant in the playoff picture, as the regularly season clearly winds down. Each team entering this slate of Thanksgiving Day games is still alive, although in each game, losses could prove to be fatal to a team's playoff chances. Specifically, I believe that Detroit, Dallas, and Atlanta are facing must win situations, where a loss on this day will effectively end their season, as they would be too far outside to realistically hope to qualify for the playoffs.
The team that I think is the most in trouble out of the teams playing today would be the Falcons. After a rough start to the season, they started to get hot for a while, before seeing everything grind to a halt with an unexpected loss at Cleveland. They then went against Dallas at home and lost, and now, they face the Saints - the hottest team in football right now - in New Orleans. That is a tough order, and if they do not win, they stretch their losing streak to three at a critical time in the playoff race, and sink down to 4-7, which would effectively place them two games or more down to the teams chasing the wildcard spots in the NFC. A loss at New Orleans would likely end the relevant part of their season, and that is quite surprising, given the level of talent on that team. It seems that they truly never fully recovered from that collapse to the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
So, let's take a closer look at the slate of games for this Thanksgiving 2018:
Chicago Bears (7-3)
v.
Detroit Lions (4-6)
Chicago at Detroit - The Bears are coming off a huge win over Minnesota. The huge win gave them a solid lead for first place in the division, and their fourth straight win. Now, they have the chance to win another big divisional game, and to get a nice, extra long period of rest afterward. Chicago's defense has been amazing all season long, and they will make life tough for Detroit's inconsistent offense. The Lions can be explosive on offense sometimes, but they have been too inconsistent to expect that going into this game, especially against that Bear defense. Plus, Chicago's offense has been quite good in their own right. They are not great at moving the ball, ranking more or less in the middle of the pack. Yet, their offense has scored more points than all but Kansas City, the L.A. Rams, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis. The Bears have not been especially great on the road, but they seem to be riding a high. The Lions have home field advantage, and they also surely have a sense of urgency going into this game, because a loss would likely be critical, if not fatal, to their playoff hopes. But Chicago is really hot, they are doing everything that they need to so far this season, and the ball just seems to be bouncing their way. It would be really hard to go against them heading into this game. My prediction: Chicago
Dallas Cowboys (5-5)
v.
Washington (6-4)
Washington at Dallas - Washington entered last weekend's showdown against Houston with a lot. they had a two-game lead over both Dallas and Philly in the NFC East, and they seemed to have a lot going for them. But the loss to the Texans was costly, and they also lost their starting quarterback. With the Cowboys winning, that puts their NFC East lead suddenly in jeopardy, especially since this game will be in Big D. Now, if Washington manages to win - and that is a big if - they will have taken a huge step towards clinching the division, by retaking a comfortable two-game lead in the NFC East again, and with only five games to play, and the tiebreaker advantage it is unlikely that they would lose it. Washington's defense has been very solid, but their offense has not, and with the uncertainty at quarterback now, this problem could be exacerbated. Meanwhile, Dallas is hot. They have one of the best defenses in the league, and Ezekiel Elliot is proving to be a machine on offense. That said, their overall offensive production remains limited. But, with all of the momentum that they have built, plus home field advantage, it would be difficult to make any other predictions but a huge win for Big D. My prediction: Dallas
Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
v.
New Orleans Saints (9-1)
Atlanta at New Orleans - Right now, the Saints are averaging more points than any other team in the league. That's right, this offense has been better at scoring points than either Kansas City or the Los Angeles Rams, even though those two teams seem to get more of the attention. But New Orleans is averaging 37.8 points per game, more than any other team. If that trend continues, then they would finish the season with 604 points, which would make them only the second team in league history to score more than 600 points in one season. Yet, they are seemingly in the shadow of the Chiefs and, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, the Rams, even though they actually defeated the Rams earlier this season, and are the one team in the league that can boast that particular achievement so far. Part of the issue is that the Saints had their bye early, so they played fewer games. But remember, they are 9-1 for a reason, and they have won nine straight. It is difficult to imagine them suddenly getting cold, especially since they are in a tight race with the Rams for home field advantage. The Falcons have a very talented offense as well, however, their defense has been an absolute liability to this point in the season. And the Saints defense can be tough, although the offense has made their job relatively easy, building up a big lead, and forcing teams to predictably pass against them. My expectations for this game would be that the Saints jump out ahead early, and just keep the pressure on. This is likely to be an explosive game, potentially even a shootout. But the Saints are better, they have home field advantage, and they are fighting for home field advantage, quite possibly. All of that leads me to believe that the Saints should win this one fairly handily. My prediction: New Orleans
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