None of these projections are particularly brave by this point, since the season is already into the sixth weekend. We already have an idea of what is going on with some of these teams, if not all of them, in terms of their standings. For example, I would neither have picked the Chiefs to look so hot, or the Raiders to look so cold. Yet, that is what has come to pass thus far. And having been thoroughly distracted for entirely too long between beginning this particular blog entry and finishing and publishing it, I thus cannot take credit for having projections that appear fairly accurate thus far. I likely would have expected Denver to look better, and the Raiders to look much better. On the flip side, my expectations for the Chiefs were much lower, and I would have predicted easily a last place finish for the Chargers. None of those things have come into fruition thus far, and so I publish these predictions with that in mind.
Given that, let me make my predictions about what will happen this season in the AFC West:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (projected division winners) - The Kansas City Chiefs have looked absolutely great so far this year! They were the last remaining unbeaten team in the AFC, and although they lost at New England last week, they still looked good doing it. So, that would seem to give Chiefs fans a lot of enthusiasm, right? The only thing is, they have looked very good in the past, as well. But they have looked good in the regular season before, only to be disappointing when it counts the most. Two years ago, they went 12-4, and won the AFC West and had a playoff bye, but lost immediately in the playoffs. Last season, they started off 5-0, just like this season, and they had a statement win up at Foxboro. But they finished the season at 10-6, and lost right away in the playoffs once again. In fact, the Chiefs have gotten off to plenty of great starts and/or have had some serious success during the regular season. They started off 9-0 in 2013, and finished the season at 11-5. The next season, they were 7-3, but finished 9-7 and failed to make the playoffs. Going back even farther, they started off 9-0 in 2003, and finished 13-3, earning a playoff bye, but they lost immediately in the playoffs. In fact, this team finished with 13-3 records three times in a span of nine seasons between 1995 and 2003. But they won a grand total of zero playoff games during that span. In fact, the Chiefs have won one playoff game since the 1993-94 season, when a guy named Joe Montana was their starting quarterback, and led them to their last appearance in an AFC title game. So, while it is nice to see them looking hot, with an explosive offense with a hot young quarterback with a bright future, the most important thing that fans of the red and gold want to see would be postseason success. And until this team actually produces that, major success in the regular season only goes so far. Yes, the Chiefs look very good, and they at least appear to be the class of this division, although the Chargers also look good at the time of my writing this. Indeed, it would be difficult to picture the Chiefs not qualifying for the playoffs. But they need to start winning some playoff games to make believers out of skeptics, and I guess I would have to include myself as one of those who remains skeptical about this team's red hot start. They might play well against the Patriots in the regular season in the past two seasons, but when they continue to fail to win once the chips are down come playoff time, it is hard to take this team too seriously, or to count them as one of the true elites in the AFC. Sure, they might play the Pats well in a game here or there. But until they beat them, or the Steelers, or some other elite team, in the postseason, all of this regular season success is more of the same for Kansas City fans. Yes, the Chiefs are my pick to win this division, but no, they are not my pick to be in the Super Bowl, or even in the AFC Championship Game just yet. They have to show an ability to win in the really big games, and as hot as they have been so far this season, they just have not done that yet.
2. Los Angeles Chargers (projected second place) - The Chargers look wonderful so far this season! They got off to a bit of a shaky start, but have since reeled off six straight wins. With that, they have become one of the elite teams in the league this season about as quietly as any team can, mostly because the enormous success and flashy, video game offense of the division rival Chiefs have gotten all of the attention. But the Chargers look real right now, with a tough defense and an offense that places in the top third of the league, led by veteran quarterback Philip Rivers. They seem to have luck on their side thus far as well, and everything so far is falling into place. Amazingly, if the Chargers win this week, and the Chiefs lose that big showdown against that other Los Angeles team, the Chargers might be in good position to steal away the AFC West from the Chiefs. Not sure if they will succeed with that or not, but this is a dangerous team, the type of team that most other teams would not necessarily want to play right now. I still think KC wins this division, but the Chargers should be easily a playoff team with a very real chance at advancing in the Wild Card round.
3. Denver Broncos (projected third place) - In each of the prior two seasons before this one, Denver got off to a hot start. They raced off to a 4-0 start in their championship defense season of 2016, and started off 3-1 last season. Yet, they finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs in 2016, and won only two games after that hot start last season. Now, the Broncos have won merely one game since an initial 2-0 start, and they are buckling under the pressure fairly badly. It will be the same old story for them, a third straight year where they look good at first, but start losing consistently by mid-season. They are already not only hopelessly behind KC for any chance at a division title, but too far behind the Chargers to seriously entertain any hopes of finishing second. Frankly, they could win out the remainder of their games, and still miss the playoffs, although I doubt that they will win the remaining games. Another losing season seems likely, and they should be thankful that the God-awful Raiders are in this division to make them look a little better, or at least, not to stand out more because of it. But this is not a very good football team overall right now, and they really need a quarterback!
4. Oakland Raiders (projected last place) - Not too long ago, the Raiders looked like the team of the future. They went 12-4 and made the playoffs. Only a loss to their starting quarterback seemed to be in the way of them winning at least one playoff game and advancing, but most people expected them to come storming back and perhaps becoming the dominant team in this division on a yearly basis, at least for a while. But it seems that the announcement of the impending move to Las Vegas, coupled with the fact that the move would take a couple of years, and that they would remain in Oakland in the meantime as a kind of lame duck team, seems to have rendered them completely ineffective. They are seeing lower attendance, and let's face it: what they are producing on the field of play has left quite a bit to be desired. So far, the Jon Gruden experiment is not working, as at the time of my writing this, the Raiders are tied with the Colts for having the worst record in the AFC. I am not exactly going out on a limb by suggesting the turning this around and making the playoffs is likely not going to happen. The Seahawks are a good team, but not a great team, yet they absolutely dominated Oakland. And the Raiders will be playing some tough games, including two meetings against the division leading Chiefs, one against the Chargers, another against the Steelers, and another against the Bengals. Plus, the Raiders just do not look good at this point. There might be some relatively weak teams remaining on their schedule, but for those teams, the Raiders themselves are one of the weak teams and winnable games on their schedule. The Raiders, with Derek Carr at quarterback and Marshawn Lynch at running back, should be a bit better on offense, but they have not been very good so far. And their defense has allowed more points than all but one other AFC team (also the Colts). Those are not promising statistics if you are hoping or expecting some kind of a turnaround, and the Raiders already have no real margin for error if they hope to make something yet of this season. But let's face it: chances are, they won't. This is a bad team, and they will likely be the cellar dwellers in this particular division.
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