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Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Both teams just escaped very difficult challenges last weekend. The Bengals went to Tennessee and beat the AFC's top seed on the road. The Chiefs, meanwhile, just outlasted the Bills in a rematch of last year's AFC Championship, really needing a miracle in the final 13 seconds of regulation to manage the feat.
Here's the thing: the Bengals will not have the benefit of experience in this one. True, they did not really have more experience than the Titans last weekend, but the Titans also do not have nearly the playoff experience of the Chiefs, who have made it to the playoffs in each of the past six seasons, have reached the AFC title game now four years running, and went to the last two Super Bowls, winning it all two years ago.
So this will be a much more difficult challenge for the Cinderella Bengals. And at Arrowhead, the clock may strike midnight, and their magical postseason ride might turn back into a pumpkin.
It's just that the Chiefs have been considered probably the best and most consistently winning team in the league for the last four seasons now. They looked a bit unsteady since losing last year's Super Bowl, and then starting off this season with a surprisingly dismal 3-4 record. Since then, however, they have returned to winning football. And it seemed that the later in the season it got, the stronger the Chiefs have gotten. Their defense stepped up first, hanging on to games that otherwise might have been lost causes, with the offense struggling as it was. But then the offense got going, and KC has looked virtually unstoppable since. They almost looked like a machine since that 3-4 start, having since gone 11-1, including the playoffs.
Now, here's the thing: if you are a Bengals fan, the good news is that the one loss that the Chiefs suffered was to the Bengals. Yes, Cincy won an important game, and that should be a help to their confidence. It also makes it more interesting, to be sure.
However, that was then, and this is now. things are different this time. After all, the Chiefs of all teams know that beating a team in the regular season, then following that up and beating them in the postseason are two different things. They were on both sides of those situations. Remember, they beat the Buccaneers convincingly during the regular season last year, and then got absolutely pummeled and dominated in the Super Bowl. But they also were dominated by the Bills earlier this season at Arrowhead, while the playoff meeting last week between the two teams went the other way.
Right now, the Chiefs look very hot, and practically unstoppable. That may be especially true when we are talking about them playing at home in Arrowhead. The Bengals finally won their first road playoff win last weekend, but it would be asking a lot of them to win two in a row now, especially when this one will be in Kansas City against the red hot, and very experienced, Chiefs.
Maybe the Bengals can keep it close. Maybe they can learn from the mistakes that the Bills made. Maybe they can pull off a shocker.
Yet, heading into this one, it feels to me like the Chiefs are clearly the favorites, and seem to be perhaps the best team in the league. In short, they are running on all cylinders, and given their quick strike abilities, and a proven track record of comeback wins, you just cannot count them out, even if they play poorly and fall behind early in a game. They can roar to life at any moment, no matter how well the other defense has shut them down up to that point in a game. That is what makes facing them such a daunting prospect, and that is especially true in Kansas City. And that is why they are my pick to win this one and head to a third straight Super Bowl.
My pick: Kansas City
San Francisco 49ers at LA Rams
at
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams seemed an unlikely choice to host this year's NFC Championship Game. They would need to survive a home game in the Wildcard round, and then win on the road in the divisional round against the very tough defending champion Buccaneers. Then, they also would have to hope that one of the lower seed teams would survive to this point. Yet, that is exactly what happened.
Meanwhile, the 49ers themselves have surprised many people in getting to this point. They survived a strong comeback attempt in Dallas to move onto Green Bay. There, they once again surprised many by beating the NFC's top seed, and the winningest team in the league during the regular season. It took a bit of a miracle for them to do so, particularly with two very memorable special teams play. So this team seems to just find ways of winning, whether conventional or not.
Both of these teams obviously have their strengths, obviously. Early this season, the Rams seemed to have an awesome defense, but the defense then went south. However, the defense has stepped up so far in a big way in these playoffs. And the offense, with veteran quarterback Matt Stafford at the helm, has been solid. He has thrown some incredible passes at key times, and really helped to lift the Rams not only to the division title, but to a blowout win over the Cardinals, and then managed to escape a very scary comeback attempt by the defending champions Buccaneers last weekend. So it might seem that they should have an advantage in this game, playing in the comfort of home as they are/
Here's the thing: the Rams have lost six straight to the 49ers. That dates back to the 2019 season, when the 49ers last went to the Super Bowl. They had two big meeting this season, especially the latter one. And despite all that was in their favor, and so much at stake, the Rams lost those meetings. They cannot seem to get past whatever it is that the 49ers throw at them.
As for me, I feel like maybe it's time to learn my lesson. I picked the 49ers to lose to the Rams in that game a few weeks back, ignoring their history of dominating the Rams in recent history, and San Francisco won. Then, I picked the Packers to win last week, even though they and Aaron Rodgers, too, had a history of failing against the 49ers, and San Francisco won that one, too. So I look at this game, and what is glaringly obvious is that however good the Rams have looked in recent weeks, they still have not show themselves capable of beating the 49ers. That makes picking them a difficult prospect, and I am not sure that I believe that they can indeed beat them, even at home, and even with all that is at stake in this game, obviously.
So my pick in this one is for the road team.
My pick: San Francisco
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