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Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Rams just dominated the Cardinals in the Wildcard round, and looked unstoppable in so doing. And the Rams also beat the Buccaneers earlier this season, to boot. So, we should expect the Rams to win this one, too, right?
Well, not exactly.
You see, the Rams did indeed dominate the Cardinals on Monday night, but that also means that they had a short week to prepare for this game. Whether or not this is unfair, this is the reality nonetheless. Also, the Cardinals are themselves a very erratic team, much like the Rams. Both of those teams look good one week, then look poor the next, and so on and so forth. The Cardinals dominated the Rams in the first meeting of the season, then the Rams returned the favor not only in the rematch later in the season, but in the playoff meeting, as well.
Tampa Bay did lose that game in Los Angeles earlier this season. But they will make adjustments. Also, they enjoy home field advantage this time around, which could help matters quite a bit. The Bucs were not unbeaten at home, like the Packers managed to do during this regular season, but they still only suffered one loss at home all season, that to the Saints. So the Bucs had the second best home record in the entire league this season, which makes having to play them in Tampa a daunting prospect. Add to that the high scoring Bucs offense, one of only two teams this season that managed to score 500 points, and you have team that sure looks ready to exact a strong measure of revenge for that loss earlier this season to the Rams.
Veteran quarterback Tom Brady looked great last week, and he should provide calmness and order for the Bucs, who will use that to exploit the Rams inconsistent defense. Frankly, I just do not see the Rams being able to keep up with the Buccaneers in this one. Perhaps I may be wrong, but looking at this beforehand, neither of these two teams are the same as when they first met, despite identical regular season records.
True, the Rams have looked very good at times this season. They also have some serious playoff experience, having reached the Super Bowl a few years back. Hell, they even crushed the Cardinals last weekend, so perhaps they are peaking. But none of that feels certain, based on their consistent tendency to be inconsistent. There just is nothing solid enough there to make a pick for them feel comfortable, or even feel right. It would almost be a huge surprise if they do indeed manage to win this one.
Look for Tampa to set the tempo early, and to build a big lead. The Rams may have a run or two, and might make this a competitive game. But the Buccaneers are champions for a reason, and by the end of this game, they should have made that reason clear.
My pick: Tampa Bay
Buffalo at Kansas City
Buffalo Bills
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Kansas City Chiefs
Oh, man, this should be a really good game! Both teams are hot, peaking at the right time. It feels like both teams have realistic hopes of not only winning this game, but of reaching the Super Bowl and winning it, perhaps, too! So this may indeed be a championship-level game played in the divisional round of the postseason.
Of course, this is a rematch of last year's AFC title game, which the Chiefs won. Both teams played well at times, with the Bills jumping out to a 9-0 lead in the first quarter. But KC came roaring back in the second quarter, scoring 21 points and taking command. They never looked back, and won that one, 38-24.
Now, these two teams are very different than they were then. Both teams have had their share of up and downs this season, to be sure. Probably nobody heading into this season would have necessarily expected that they would sport records of 12-5 (KC) and 11-6 (Buffalo), respectively. But those records do not mean all that much now.
The big question is whether the Bills can replicate what they managed to do earlier this season, when they dominated the Chiefs in Arrowhead, 38-20. Fans in Buffalo were so excited that they greeted their heroes in the airport in the wee hours later that night, when they arrived back in Buffalo. It looked like the Bills had staked their claim as the best team in the league at that point.
But the rest of the season was a roller coaster ride. Only towards the end, after they had fallen behind the Patriots by two games in the race for AFC East title, did Buffalo finally find more stable footing, and began to realize their enormous potential. At that point, they looked uncertain even to reach the postseason. But everything turned around for them after that. They won their final four regular season games to clinch not only a playoff berth but a division title, and the number three seed overall. They then crushed the Pats last weekend, and earned the right to play in this divisional round game in Kansas City, a rematch of that earlier meeting.
Meanwhile, KC had their own roller coaster ride, although it started right from the beginning. They struggled before beating Cleveland to open up the season, but were 3-4 after suffering another blowout loss in Tennessee, when they suddenly came alive. It took a while for them to really get going, but they began to win. Their offense was not at full strength yet, but their defense stepped up in a big way, and they found ways to win. By the end of the season, they began to look very much like the Chiefs team that we had expected and gotten used to in recent seasons. Last weekend in crushing the Steelers, they once again looked scary.
So that makes this game huge, and with the winner perhaps soaring higher than ever, and maybe high enough that they fly to the Super Bowl out west.
Yet, this game is hard to call as a result. Again, both teams are looking at their best, much better than their regular season records even would suggest. In fact, these two teams may be among the very best in the entire league, perhaps even the two best teams in the league. So the question is which team will give way.
Having home field advantage certainly does not hurt the Chiefs. It will be cold for this game, but if there is any team in the AFC that should not be bothered by cold weather, it would have to be the Buffalo Bills. Still, playing this game at Arrowhead Stadium seems to favor the hometown Chiefs. The question, then, is whether or not it will be enough to push the defending AFC Champions through this game and to their fourth straight AFC Championship Game.
For my end, I will take a chance here and say that it will not be enough. The Bills have revenge on their mind, and they are playing possibly their best football yet right now, even better possibly than they were in their run to the AFC title game last season. Earlier this season, it felt like it was their time. Right now, it is beginning to feel like their time again. That is why they are my pick to upset the Chiefs and advance to the AFC Championship Game.
My pick: Buffalo
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