AFC East Preview for the 2019-20 Season

The NFL season starts later this week, on Thursday, specifically. That is when the Green Bay Packers visit the Chicago Bears to renew the league’s historically longest and most stories rivalry to kick off the NFL’s 100th season.              

That is an unusual move, since it denies the New England Patriots, the defending Super Bowl champions, the chance to shine during the nationally televised game, which has become a tradition for the league. Still, the Patriots will play on a nationally televised game later, when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers on the opening Sunday Night Football game of the upcoming season.              

So, it is time to begin the NFL predictions for this season. I begin with the AFC East, because in recent years, I have made an effort to honor the accomplishments of whoever last won the Super Bowl by reviewing their division, and thus them, first. This I will continue, although the NFC North will follow that immediately, since I would like to avoid the mistake that I made last season, in not getting the divisional (and overall) predictions done in a timely enough manner that it came before the season. By the time that my predictions were fully out there, the season was very much well under way.              

In my defense, I did predict that the Patriots would win the AFC title to reach a third straight Super Bowl, and that they would go on to win it, to boot. Honest.              

And guess what? Looking at this upcoming season, right now, I see no reason not to pick them to reach yet another Super Bowl. And if they reach yet another Super Bowl, you better believe that they at least have a chance to win it. That does not mean that they definitely will win the Super Bowl. Only that, looking at everything right now, they still give me no reason to see why they are not capable of doing it. This is a meticulous team when it comes to their preparation. Head coach Bill Belichick really covers every possibility, and he makes sure that his team works hard to be ready for anything. And season after season, it seems that they are. Entering this season, it does not appear that this has faltered yet. So, yes, the Patriots are very strong candidates to win the AFC and, quite possibly, win yet another Super Bowl. There are other strong candidates to dethrone them, but you certainly would be unwise to assume that they are not going to be a serious factor come playoff time. After all, you only have to look at recent history – and history that extends almost two decades, for that matter – to see similar patterns emerge regarding New England’s historic level of dominance. It certainly does not appear that they have lost all that much in the offseason, even if they did lose some talent.              

Still, they are good enough to be considered serious contenders. That process, of course, begins with them winning their division, which I think they will do.              

Why? Let me go into a bit more detail for each team in the AFC East: 

Projected Division Champions: New England Patriots - Love them or hate them, or somewhere in between, there is simply no denying just how incredible the Patriots level of success has been. By reaching double digits in terms of wins for an 18th straight season, a streak dating back to the 2001 season, the Patriots tied the San Francisco 49ers as the only two teams in NFL history to have achieved that feat. Yet, you could make a serious argument that what the Patriots have managed to do is even more impressive than what the 49ers managed to do. After all, they have done it during the era of free agency, and have lost major talent at various points. The only constants have been the triumvirate of owner Robert Kraft, head coach Bill Belichick, and quarterback Tom Brady. Still, they keep winning. Like the San Francisco 49ers, the Patriots have benefitted from weak teams populating their division. San Francisco had the perennial basket base Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints, who combined made a total of two playoff appearances from 1981-1990, the era of the 49ers peak dominance. Then, from 1991-1998, the Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams became the basket case, and lost 17 straight times to the Niners. Atlanta never could enjoy success with any degree of regularity, and the Saints, while at times good, never quite were able to become one of the true serious contenders in the league. Ditto for New England in the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills have been a basket case for almost the entire length of the Patriots dominance, and it is not surprising that they have hardly enjoyed any success against the Pats during that time. New England has won an incredible 33 of the last 37 games against Buffalo, a streak that dates back to the 2000 season. They have also won the last five meetings between the two teams. That obviously has added some wins tom the Patriots record during each of the seasons during this incredible run. The Pats also took 17 of the last 24 against the Dolphins. And they have won 29 of the last 37 games against the Jets. That translates to complete and utter dominance of the AFC East by the Pats. Since 2002, the Dolphins have qualified for the playoffs only twice. The Bills have qualified once in the 21st century. And the Jets enjoyed some playoff seasons in the first half of the Pats dynasty years, qualifying for the playoffs six times from 2001-2010. But they have missed the playoffs each of the last eight seasons. So, if no one else in the AFC East step up in the AFC East, and the Patriots continue to enjoy that kind of success against their frankly inept division rivals, then you have to figure New England’s experience will be a significant factor to their benefit come playoff time. And I just do not see that any of the other AFC East teams are in serious position to finally end the Patriots reign of dominance in this division.              

Projected Second Place: New York Jets – Yes, I am picking the Jets to make a leap and take second place in the division. No, that does not mean that I believe that they will dethrone, or even seriously challenge, New England for division supremacy, even though that is not as completely impossible a scenario as many probably believe it to be. However, Gang Green has been moving in the generally right direction for a few seasons now, and at some point, that is going to begin to pay dividends. My guess is that it begins to do so this season. Yes, New York has made some serious improvements, particularly on offense. They have some holes to fill on the defensive side, to be sure. But with Sam Darnold having gained valuable experience last season, and with Le’Veon Bell adding some force to the running game, the Jets could finally start to move the ball and score some points this season. Of course, that is barring key injuries, but yes, Gang Green has some real talent and potential on offense. Now, they could make some serious improvements on the field, on both offense and defense, and still not be serious playoff contenders. After all, we have to keep in mind that this team finished 4-12 last season, easily in last place in the division, and close to the bottom of the rankings on both offense and defense. So, it is feasible that they make significant improvements, yet still fall short of making anything resembling a serious playoff run. But the Jets do seem to be working towards building a team that could enjoy more serious and lasting success down the line, and it will be key for them to improve upon the dismal output that they had last season. A second place finish is a very realistic objective for this team, and I believe that they could do it.              

Projected Third Place: Buffalo Bills – Many expected the Bills to be among the very worst teams, if not the worst team, in the league last season. In fact, they were not all that bad, and managed to surprise some people along the way, Mostly, that was because of the strength of their defense, which was actually one of the most highly rated defenses in the league. However, they finished 6-10 because the offense just never found consistency, and had a hard time scoring points. Yes, Buffalo’s defense often kept this team in games, but their offense just as often squandered opportunities. There is a reason, after all, that they ranked near the bottom in offensive rankings last season, and were one of the worst teams in both points scored and yards produced. They also turned the ball over a bit too much. So, as strong as Buffalo’s defense may be, they will have to find some talent and consistency on offense in order to contend in the AFC East, if they hope to take second place or, if everything really works out extremely well, eve challenging New England for the division title. But it seems unlikely that they will correct their offensive problems so quickly, and so their tough and talented defense might be wasted because of just how inept the offense has been for quite a few seasons now. It is this reason why I believe that the Bills will finish in third place, although a second place finish is certainly not out of the question. Remember, after all, that this team reached the postseason in 2017, and they still have retained some of that talent.              

Projected Last Place: Miami Dolphins – If there is a team in this division with more serious problems on offense than the Buffalo Bills, it is the Dolphins. Only the Dolphins do not have the tough defense as a saving grace, like Buffalo has. Yet somehow, Miami managed a 7-9 record, and a second place finish within this division last season. They even seemed like they had a serious chance at pulling off a playoff berth, especially after stunning the Patriots late in the season on what was, frankly, a miracle finish. But then, once it was time for them to try and get some serious results to pound themselves into the postseason, they wound up getting blown out in each of their final three games against Minnesota, Jacksonville, and Buffalo. None of those teams made it to the playoffs last season, yet the Dolphins were embarrassed by two of them, the Vikings and the Bills. In fact, Miami got embarrassed a few times last season, getting crushed by the Pats in the first meeting, and losing convincingly against the Lions, the Texans, and the Packers last season. They hardly made huge improvements in the offseason, and if they caught people by surprise last season, that seems unlikely this time around. That is why I have a difficult time projecting anything but a last place finish for the Fins this time around.