AFC North Preview for the 2019-20 Season

The AFC North appears to be a strange division as we head into the 2019-20 season. The traditional front runners, the Pittsburgh Steelers, suffered through a disastrous season last year. They have lost some serious talent on offense, particularly Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, and they appear not to have nearly the level of talent that they enjoyed in recent seasons. So, last season, without Bell, they suffered for it. Now, they will also be without Brown, and that seems to leave an opening for the other teams in the division. 

Baltimore took full advantage of Pittsburgh's uncharacteristically poor season, and just edged the Steelers out for the division title. Typically, they relied on a strong defense, although their offense showed some capabilities at times, as well;. 

Cleveland is expected by many to improve by leaps and bounds again this season, just as they improved dramatically last season following that horrendous winless season in 2017. But they improved to 7-8-1 last season, and with the addition of former Giants star wide receiver Odell Beckham, Jr., many expect some big things in Believeland now. There are even some who feel that Cleveland might win this division, and perhaps even be a contender.

Then, the Bengals, a perennial underachiever. This franchise has gone longer than any other since the last time they actually won a playoff game. Yes, it was all the way back in the 1990-91 season, a season I remember well, as the Giants won Super Bowl XXV. But that was also almost three full decades ago! It would not exactly be very risky to predict that this will not be the season when the Bengals finally snap that winless streak in the playoffs, because this team just is not very good. 

Here are my predictions for the AFC North:

1. Baltimore Ravens (projected division winners)  - The Ravens looked like they were out of the divisional race last season at midseason, when they had a 4-5 mark, and had just lost to division rivals Pittsburgh, which was Baltimore’s third straight loss. Yes, at that point, things looked very grim. And then, this team suddenly caught fire. They beat the Bengals, as expected, but that was the first of six wins in their next seven games. That was good enough to earn a 10-6 mark, which was just enough to squeeze past the Steelers to capture the AFC North division crown. Their defense was one of the best all season long, but they especially seemed to grow tough late, when they permitted 17 points or less four times in their final six regular season games, which were all wins for Baltimore. That means that Baltimore played some serious defense when they really needed to get the job done. They also got valuable experience, including playoff experience, last year, which should bode well. Unfortunately, I also did not finish writing this review of the Ravens before their first game was over - they were the only team like that this time around, honest! - and they looked simply incredible in completely taking apart the Dolphins at Miami. I believe that this was the most lopsided win in Baltimore Ravens history, and probably the worst home loss in Dolphins history. That does not mean that they managed anything great for the season yet, but you could not ask for a better start either, right? They have a terrific defense, one of the best in the league, and their offense looks like it has strong potential. That is enough for me to make them my pick to win this division.

2. Cleveland Browns (projected second place) - Entering last season, there were just so many question marks surrounding the Browns, following a winless season in 2017. But the Browns got over that hump almost right away. They managed to pull off a tie against the Steelers in week one, and then tested the Saints in New Orleans in week two, before finally earning their first win in a long time against the Jets. They still looked like a struggling team at midseason, when they fell to 2-6-1, before they suddenly came alive. They beat the Falcons, a team that was expected to be a playoff contender, and that was their first of five wins in a six game span. They beat Baltimore early in the season, and then pushed the Ravens to the limit in the season finale, but ultimately ended their season with a 7-8-1 mark, good enough for third place. Yes, they still had a losing record, but the dramatic improvement in the win-loss column from the previous disastrous season, coupled with their hot finish to the season, had many in Cleveland believing. And the Browns have now added to that excitement by adding Odell Beckham at wide receiver, giving the young and promising Baker Mayfield a very strong option. This team has the look and feel of a young and rising team, and it almost feels like their turnaround is inevitable. This, despite the often lingering impression among fans and casual fans alike that this team just seemed cursed. But their quick rise from doormats to a stubborn and tough team that managed to avoid losses in half their games – again, only one season after going 0-16 – had a lot of people expecting big things from them. Some people had unrealistic expectations. Hell, I heard someone talking about them as a potential Super Bowl team, which seems a little presumptuous. But this team certainly appears to be moving in the right direction, and they have a lot of people – myself included – believing that, at the very least, this team will continue to improve by leaps and bounds. I was so impressed with their turnaround last season, and their offseason moves, that I am going out on a limb and projecting them to finish in second place in the division, and to make a serious run a the playoffs, perhaps even to get there. Of course, that could backfire, but it feels like the Browns are finally making the right moves to at least bring a contender, if not someday a champion, to Believeland.              

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (projected third place)  - The Steelers were a very inconsistent team last season. They entered with uncertainty regarding the status of running back La’Veon Bell, and finished with a clearly unhappy star wide receiver Antonio Brown. They started off the season in an uncharacteristically weak manner, and were 1-2-1 a quarter of the way through. But they then pulled off six straight wins, taking control of first place in the division, and appearing like the same old superpower of the AFC North that they have generally been for quite a long time now. Then, they lost four of the next five games, to lose control of their own destiny, in terms of winning the division title. Ultimately, they finished with a respectable 9-6-1, and lost the division title race on the very last weekend, when Baltimore secured the division title and moved onto the playoffs, while the Steelers had to do what they were not accustomed to: watch the playoffs from home. Their offense was still one of the best and most dangerous units in the league last season, yet they still seemed to have lost something with the absence of Bell. Now, they have lost Brown at wide receiver, and quarterback Roethlisberger, who seems to be getting better as he grows older, is nevertheless not growing any younger, as he is now 37. So, will the Steelers offense still be one of the most explosive units? And what about their defense, which was middle of the road last season? The thing with Pittsburgh is that I can picture them returning to elite form, and easily winning the division. But I can also see them struggling like they did last season, and missing the postseason once again. It really is a crapshoot with them. In the end, however, my guess is that they remain fairly competitive, but yield a bit to the Ravens and the rising Browns, which is why I am projecting a rare third place finish.   

4. Cincinnati Bengals (projected  last place team) - The Bengals got off to a terrific 4-1 start last season, before it all fell apart. After that, they allowed a whopping 217 points in their next six games, an average of over 36 points allowed per game in those six games. Not surprisingly, they went 1-5 during that stretch. They tightened up a bit on defense after that, but not enough to become contenders, as the losing continued. Indeed, after that initial 4-1 start, Cincinnati only won two more games the entire season. Their offense was okay overall, but they also seemed to lose a lot in the latter portions of the season, when they could not seemingly score points, coinciding with the period of the season when the Bengals defense could not seem to prevent other teams from scoring points. The end result was a last place finish, not surprisingly. The Bengals managed to surprise the Ravens early in the season, and then they never won another divisional game the rest of the way. The defense permitted 26 or more points nine times, which was the majority of games, and they went 2-7 in those games. Also, they scored less than 20 points per game five times following that 4-1 start (they had scored at least 21 points or more in each of those first five games), and not surprisingly, they were winless in those five games. So, this team has many weaknesses, and a lot of work to do to try and address them. Indeed, with that rather grim reality, it is difficult to see how this team winds up avoiding a last place finish this season.