AFC South Preview for the 2019-20 Season

The AFC South is an interesting case. The Houston Texans managed to win the division last season, yet there was this sense, all season long, that they were not necessarily the best team in the division, but that they managed to somehow take the division title nonetheless.              

Those suspicions were largely confirmed when they were dismantled by the Colts in the Wildcard Game by the Colts. Indeed, the Colts felt like the truly better team, and they proved it when all the chips were down. But with the surprise departure of Andrew Luck, how good will the Colts be?              

Meanwhile, the Jaguars will try to recover from a dismal season last year. It started off solidly enough, when they entered the year as the defending division champs, and then managed to get their revenge on the Patriots eliminating them in the AFC title the year prior by handing them their first defeat early in the season. But their season spiraled out of control shortly thereafter. They were able to snab a solid quarterback by obtaining Nick Foles, the former Super Bowl MVP. But will that be enough for a turnaround?              

As for the Titans, they have been a contender for the playoffs in each of the past two seasons. But can Marcus Mariota step it up a notch or two, and deliver this team another playoff berth, or perhaps even a divisional title? It is not a given, and it will be interesting to see how the divisional race shapes up this year.              

Let’s take a closer look at each team in the AFC South:          

1. Indianapolis Colts (projected division winners) - Projected Division Winner: Indianapolis Colts – Yes, even without star quarterback Andrew Luck, I expect that the Colts are the best team in this division. Jacoby Brissett will be the new starting quarterback, and it might take some time for him to get used to being at the helm. But he is supposed to be quite good himself, and so he might still help the Colts achieve their dreams. This was supposed to be a very promising year for Indy, and many seemed to feel that the Colts would have the best team that Luck had played with in any of his seasons. But with Luck gone, they still have a lot of strengths in place. Their offense was one of the top units in the league last year, and their defense ranked in the top third in the league, to boot. Defensively, all of the pieces at least appear to be in place for this to be a good unit. But on offense, how much will the Colts lose with a new starting quarterback, who will still have to adjust to the pressures of being a starting quarterback in the NFL? Will he know and work the system as well as Luck did? Most likely not, but if he comes relatively close, the Colts may indeed be the strong competitors that many people expected them to be prior to Luck announcing his retirement. If not, this team might not even reach the playoffs, despite being very talented. Frank Reich has this team going in the right direction, however, and so I feel this team should come out on top in the AFC South. That is why they are still my pick to come out on top in this division.  

2. Houston Texans (projected second place) - The Texans are one of those teams that are a bit hard to figure out. Seriously! They could wind up being division champs again, or they could wind up suffering through another disastrous season and finishing dead last, or anywhere in between those two scenarios. You just never know with them. What seems consistent, however, is that they rarely seem to make too much noise once they actually get into the playoffs. This team seems capable of beating relatively weak teams in the playoffs, specifically in the Wildcard round. But they have never won a single playoff game beyond that, and remain the only NFL team not to have qualified for a Championship Game yet in their history. Bottom line, Houston still has the same question that they always seem to have: can their offense keep moving the ball, and put points on the board. They were able to do it for the most part last season, which helped allow them to come back from an 0-3 start to pull off nine straight wins – a franchise record – and take the division title, ultimately. And if the Colts do slip, which is indeed a distinct possibility, expect the Texans to be right there. As it stands, the Texans are poised to make another run to the playoffs, although I do not believe that they are the most talented team in this division. Hence, they are my pick for second place.              

1. Tennessee Titans (projected division winners) - Much like the Houston Texans in recent seasons, the Titans are known for an incredible, physical defense, and a mediocre offense that struggles to put points on the board. Seven times, teams held them to 17 points or less. It is a testament to their defense that they went 2-5 in those games, but that still means five losses. If their offense was more consistent and productive, then they might have had a real chance at winning a few more of those games. Case in point: when this team scored at least 20 points, they enjoyed an impressive 7-1 mark. That underscores the point that if they fix their offensive problems, they can be a very serious contender, not just to reach the playoffs, but to win a division title, and possibly even make a deep run into the playoffs. But Marcus Mariota seems to be struggling, and has had a challenging time in leading this offense. He could continue to develop, and is still fairly young. But by now, he has been in the league for a few years, and if there is a time to show marked improvement, this season would be that time. This will be his fifth NFL season, and he simply has to put up better numbers for this team to be able to kick it into a higher gear, and be as good as they have the potential to be. Until they prove that they can do that, they will likely continue to be overshadowed by the Texans and especially the Colts.              

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (projected third place team) - What a fall from grace! They enjoyed a seemingly miraculous 2017 season for Jax, when they won the division title,  then won two playoff games, and even had the Patriots on the run up in New England before ultimately bowing down. And for a little while last season, they looked quite solid last year, too. They won their first two games, which included revenge on the Patriots in a convincing win. They stood at 3-1, and still looked every bit the playoff contender. But they lost seven straight games after that, and were nowhere near a playoff run. They won a couple of mostly token games after that, but they finished 5-11, convincingly in last place in the division, four games behind third place Tennessee. What went wrong? Well, the defense was tight and mostly strong. Their offense, on the other hand, was another matter. They scored 31 points twice during their early season, 3-1 start. From that point on, they only managed to score 20 points or more twice in their remaining 12 games, and they lost both of those games anyway. But the Jaguars were held to less than 10 points six times, going 1-5 in those games. There were too many games when this team just did not put up nearly enough points to win, even if the defense had done their job. They could have beaten the Titans early in the season, after holding them to 9 points, but they lost. They should have been able to beat Washington late in the season, after holding them to 16, but they lost. There were too many close games where this team simply could not find a way to win, and most of that could be blamed on the defense. The arrival of Nick Foles could help, but this is not the Eagles offense. That is why it is hard to predict anything but another last place finish for Jax for the upcoming season.