The NFC South has one team that shined very brightly last season, and probably should have played in the Super Bowl. The other teams in the division – which includes two teams who made recent Super Bowl appearances – are far more limited in what they managed to do. The Falcons almost won their Super Bowl, but they never seem to have recovered from blowing that 28-3 lead in the big game. And the Carolina Panthers looked like a historically dominant team in 2015, until they were dominated by Denver in the Super Bowl. They too appear never to have recovered from that loss in the big game. Tampa Bay was not in any recent Super Bowls, and have not come very close, either. They had an offense that looked incredibly for the first few weeks of last season, and they looked positively explosive. But they slowed down after that, and the team ended with a dismal 5-11 mark, and easily finished in last place.
So, where is each team right now, as it stands? Here is a closer look at each team in the NFC South:
1. New Orleans Saints (projected division winners) – It almost all clicked into place for the Saints last season. After a shocking loss to Tampa Bay in week one, they reeled off ten straight wins to take over the top seed in the NFC, a position that they never lost. They handed the then 8-0 Rams their first loss of the season, and also beat other solid teams, including Baltimore and Philadelphia, both playoff teams last year. The Saints finished with a 13-3 mark, earning home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They again beat the defending champion Eagles, and seemed to be in great position to beat the Rams in the NFC title game in order to reach the Super Bowl. Then, of course, came the blown call on that obvious pass interference that never was, at least officially. It cost the Saints a chance at a Super Bowl title, because they did not get there. The Rams won and represented the NFC, likely undeservedly. Still, many expect big things from the Saints this year, and there is good reason for that. This team has one of the most explosive offenses in the league, led by veteran quarterback Drew Brees. They scored 30 or more points 10 times, and scored 40 or more points an incredible six times. Their defense, while not an elite unit, was good enough to make the leads that the offense almost inevitably took stand up. And they look very much in the same position heading into this season. All of the pieces appear to be in place for another title run this year. Right now, it would be hard to go against them winning this division, as no other team here looks even close to the level of talent and experiences that New Orleans brings to the table.
2. Atlanta Falcons (projected second place team) – The Falcons once again showed some serious talent and even explosiveness on offense last season. There was a bizarre, almost inexplicable stretch of five games when the offense suddenly looked slow and surprisingly ineffective, when they scored a total of 88 points in those five games, for an average of less than 18 points per game. They lost all five of those games. Still, their offense was usually far more solid than that, and should have been strong enough for a return trip to the playoffs, even with that strangely weak five game stretch. But their defense was bad, and probably cost this team a chance to contend for the postseason. Without serious improvements on the defensive side, this team might once again miss the playoffs. Frankly, they have too much talent on offense to keep missing chances while the window of opportunity might still be open, so they have to seriously tighten up. But again, they just never seem to have recovered from that blown lead in the Super Bowl a few seasons ago, which seems to have derailed this team’s confidence. They just have not been the same, and that is why I cannot predict that they can give the Saints a serious run for the money.
3. Carolina Panthers (projected third place) – Remember how incredible the Panthers looked back in the 2015 season? Yeah, they never looked anywhere near that good before, or since, frankly. This team still has Cam Newton at quarterback, and he is still an elite player. But he is in his ninth season, and not getting any younger. Injuries have begun to take a toll, as he missed a couple of games last season, which was the first time since 2014 that he missed that many games. He also looked good when he did play, but over the years, he has taken some serious hits. How much longer can his body hold up? Will those hits begin to take a serious toll on his abilities at some point? Frankly, it is hard to see how they would not do so at some point. Also, as a team, will the Panthers ever seemingly get past the clear disappointment and shock of losing that Super Bowl to the Broncos? It seems that they never did, as they never looked even remotely close to the same team. They started off last season quite well, and were 6-2 at mid-season point, just one game behind the first place Saints. Then came a humiliating blowout loss at Pittsburgh, and the entire season seemed to unravel for the Panthers after that point. Their offense had looked quite dangerous up to that point, having scored 30 or more points in half of their first eight games. But after that loss to the Steelers to start the second half, they never looked anywhere near as good, and only scored 30+ points one more time, and that was in the season finale against New Orleans, a game which meant nothing to the Saints, who rested their starters. Indeed, by season's end, the Panther offense was ranked right in the middle of the pack among NFL teams, and their defense, which was also rated more or less in the middle, was on the bottom half. This team needs more productivity on both ends, and they need Newton to remain healthy. They can be competitive, and perhaps move up to second, or potentially even contend for a playoff spot or even the division title, if everything falls into place for Carolina this year. But until they show that they can indeed do this, it is hard to predict anything better than third place heading into this season.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - (projected last place) – This one, like the Saints, seems like a no-brainer, as well. Just for completely different reasons. The Bucs looked like they had a very explosive offense early on last season, when they barely lost in Pittsburgh to narrowly miss a 3-0 start, and had scored 102 points in those first three games. They stunned the Saints in week one, and then knocked off the defending champion Eagles, before just losing in Pittsburgh. But things began to unravel for this team shortly after that, and quickly. They were crushed by Chicago, and never seemed to recover. They lost 7 of 8 games after the 2-0 start, and also lost their final four games. This team had one of the worst defenses in the league. Underscoring that point, they allowed 30 points or more in half of their games, and they went 1-7 in those games. Their offense was decent, even if that explosive start of the season was a bit deceptive. However, their defense was a weak point and liability consistently throughout the season, and it is hard to see how this team can contend or even avoid a last place finish if there is not significant improvement on the defensive front. Until they make some serious adjustments to tighten that defense up, they will be doomed to a last place finish, particularly in this division, which has two of the hottest offensive teams in the league.
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