The past two weeks have been a disaster for American foreign policy, particularly in regards to Afghanistan.
With scenes that many identified as a little too similar to the American withdrawal from Saigon on the final days of the Vietnam War, American forces withdrew just under the gun, with one minute to spare. Yes, the last American plane took off one minute before midnight on the deadline date that President Biden has insisted on.
After the last plane had taken off, Taliban forces at Kabul Airport shot guns in celebration, claiming that now, Afghanistan was fully independent. Indeed, Taliban forces have not been shy about proclaiming victory in the war, which turned out to be the longest involvement in a war in American history, at 20 years.
The Biden administration claimed some measure of victory, suggesting that it was a major accomplishment to evacuate over 120,000 civilians from the country in less than three weeks. Yet, it should be pointed out that an estimated 100-200 Americans remain in Afghanistan. Now, there is no American military presence there to assure their safety. Biden promised just days ago that all Americans would be safely evacuated, and that simply does not appear to be the case. However, it should be recognized that evacuating as many people as were successfully evacuated was an accomplishment of sorts.
Be that as it may, many Americans are not convinced that this was in any way a success. The comparisons to Vietnam are obviously not something that many Americans wish to hear. And while Biden refused to bend, despite much criticism, regarding the deadline for the American withdrawal, many feel that this was a glaring failure for American foreign policy. Furthermore, it happened with the entire world watching, at that.
Of course, we can add some historical context. After all, Afghanistan has been known as the “graveyard of empires,” and many feel that America’s involvement, and ultimate failure, in Afghanistan is just the latest in what is actually a fairly long line of empires who got involved in the country, only to ultimately retreat, despite success eluding them. The Tang Dynasty in China tried to secure the all-important Silk Road over one millennium ago in Afghanistan, but they ultimately withdrew. Hundreds of years later, the Mongols invaded Afghanistan, but also did not meet with full success. The British famously tried to invade Afghanistan on three separate occasions. The fact that they attempted it three times should reveal the level of their success, or lack thereof. Then, it was the Soviets who attempted to take over. They tried three times, actually, as well, in both 1929 and 1930, and then in a major way in 1979. That was lasted for a decade, and ultimately is sometimes credited with ending the Soviet empire.
Now, the United States just ended two decades worth of military involvement in Afghanistan by ultimately retreating from the country, which is now controlled by the very same people – the Taliban – that we set out to eliminate in the first place. Again, American officials, particularly within the Biden administration, are claiming that it is not a defeat. But clearly, the Taliban is proclaiming victory, and not without some justification. After all, they kept fighting, and in the end, they took over the country again, while Americans scrambled to evacuate from the country.
Questions remain, of course. What went wrong? How clear was our mission? Did our support of warlords and a blatantly corrupt government ultimately severely undermine our credibility and assure failure? Will we hesitate before getting involved in other major foreign conflicts now? Or will it be like the United States in the eighties and early nineties, when seemingly overnight invasions of sovereign nations in Grenada and Panama enjoyed enormous support, and many Americans expressed joy that American military might was back following the first Gulf War in 1991?
Personally, I clearly cannot be sure of the answers. Americans finally seem to be a little more reluctant to get involved in other countries, something that seems remarkably different than in the eighties and nineties. But remember how short term our collective memory tends to be. President Reagan had Americans believing that there were no limits to America’s military might, and that it might achieve pretty much any foreign policy objective that it really wanted. Vietnam should have taught us a lesson, but clearly, Americans wanted to stubbornly refuse to view that conflict as anything but an aberration. Now, we have had some bad experiences in two other countries, as well. The war in Iraq, which was fought under dubious justifications, turned sour quite quickly, and like Afghanistan, felt like it just dragged on and on, without clear success.
As for Afghanistan, frankly, it is difficult to view our war efforts as anything but a failure. Remember, the very guys that we were fighting against wound up taking over the country. They were celebrating last night after American withdrawal was complete. That, to me, suggests failure. We lost that war.
So again, are we going to learn some modesty, some humility, and hesitate before getting involved in another country?
My best guess is that it will be a mix. More and more, there seems to be more resistance to the idea of our getting involved in foreign wars, both from the left and, somewhat surprisingly, from the right.
Still, many Americans simply refuse to admit that we Americans have ever lost a war. For example, I remember some Americans over the years suggesting that Vietnam was not an actual war, since war was never declared. It was merely a military operation.
Right.
It is that same arrogant mentality that had some Americans suggesting that George W. Bush never actually declared the words “Mission Accomplished!” on that aircraft carrier, despite the gigantic, oversized banner reading exactly that behind him. The war raged on and on, and it became clear that such a premature declaration of victory was simply arrogance and for short-term political profit, but was ill-advised and made him look foolish in the long run.
Now, I am sure that some will deny that Afghanistan was a defeat. But again, we went in there fighting the Taliban, and in the end, it is the Taliban who is staying and taking over the country, while we are withdrawing. The Taliban is celebrating victory, as Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid suggested that "American soldiers left the Kabul airport, and our nation got its full independence."
They could not have been much clearer about who they feel won the war if they themselves had put a huge banner declaring “Mission Accomplished!”
So that kind of thinking makes me hesitate to conclude that we will have learned our lesson this time. But we shall see. Let us call a spade a spade: it seems all too clear that far too often, Americans have become too easily convinced of the necessity of armed conflict. Vietnam began with widespread support, and only lost support as the war dragged on and on. The invasions of Grenada and Panama, as already noted, also enjoyed widespread support, and boosted the popularity of the sitting presidents at the time. Operation Desert Storm was widely hailed as a victory, and then President George H/ W. Bush achieved record popularity at that point after what seemed like a success. Afghanistan also began with widespread support by an overwhelming majority of Americans, although support waned as that war grew longer and more complicated. And the invasion of Iraq enjoyed majority support, but grew less and less popular as it too dragged on and on, and ultimately began to turn sour.
Whether we see other scenes reminiscent of our evacuations in Saigon, or now our evacuations from Kabul, remains to be seen.
These are the two articles that I used specifically for this piece, and from which I obtained the quote used above:
U.S. completes withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending 20-year deployment by the AP, August 31, 2021:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/rocket-attack-kabul-1.6157938
China’s Tang Dynasty and Afghanistan, the Graveyard of Empires by Chan Kung, August 28, 2021:
The rise and fall of the Tang Dynasty points to the crucial strategic significance of the region today known as Afghanistan.
https://thediplomat.com/2021/08/chinas-tang-dynasty-and-afghanistan-the-graveyard-of-empires/
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